The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus-2), which underlies the current COVID-19 pandemic, among other tissues, also targets the central nervous system (CNS). The goal of this study is to investigate mechanisms of neuroinflammation in Lipopolysaccharides (LPS)-treated mouse model and SARS-CoV-2-infected hamsters. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In this research I will assay vascular reactivity of cerebral vessels to assess vascular dysfunction within the microcirculation. I will determine expression of proinflammatory cytokines, coagulation factors and AT1 receptors (AT1R) in isolated microvessels from the circle of Willis to assess inflammation, thrombosis and RAS activity in the microvasculature. LPS and SARS-CoV-2, are both associated with coagulopathies and because of that I will measure concentration of PAI-1, von Willebrand Factor, thrombin and D-dimer to assess the thrombotic pathway in the circulation. Histology and immunohistochemistry will assess immune cell type infiltration into the brain parenchyma, microglia activation and severity of neuroinflammation and neural injury. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We hypothesize that under conditions of reduced ACE2 (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 infection), AT1R activity is upregulated in the microvasculature. In the presence of an inflammatory insult, these AT1Rs promote endothelialitis and immunothrombosis through pro-thrombotic pathways and pro-inflammatory cytokine production leading to endothelial dysfunction in the microvasculature, blood brain barrier (BBB) injury, deficits in cognition and increased anxiety. We will test this hypothesis through 2 aims: Aim 1: Determine the role of the pro-injury arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. Aim 1: Determine the role of the protective arm of the RAS in the pathophysiology of the brain in animal models of neuroinflammation and COVID-19. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study will provide insights that will complement on-going clinical trials on angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT1R) blockers (ARBs) in COVID-19. This research is a necessary first step in understanding mechanisms of brain pathogenesis that can set the groundwork for future studies of more complex models of disease.

Background: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a severe progressive neuromuscular disease. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare resource utilization (HRU), and medical costs of DMD in Alberta. Methods: This retrospective study linked provincial healthcare administrative data to identify patients with DMD utilizing a modified diagnostic code algorithm, including males <30 years of age. Five-year (April 2012 to March 2017) prevalence estimates were calculated and all-cause direct HRU and costs were examined in the first-year post-diagnosis. Results: Overall, 111 patients (median age: 12.0 years (IQR 4.7-18.3)) with DMD were identified. The estimated five-year period prevalence was 35.72 (95% CI 31.88-39.91) per 100,000 persons. All-cause HRU in the first-year post-diagnosis included a mean (SD) of 0.48 (1.19) hospitalizations (length of stay: 9.37 days (36.47)), 3.96 (6.16) general practitioner visits, 28.52 (62.98) specialist visits, and 20.14 (16.49) ambulatory care visits. Mean (SD) all-cause direct costs were $18,868 ($29,206) CAD in the first-year post-diagnosis. Conclusions: Patients with DMD had multiple interactions with the healthcare system in the year following diagnosis, resulting in substantial direct medical costs. More effective treatment strategies are needed to improve health outcomes and reduce the burden of DMD.

The GaLactic and Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) is a radio continuum survey at 76–227 MHz of the entire southern sky (Declination $<\!{+}30^{\circ}$ ) with an angular resolution of ${\approx}2$ arcmin. In this paper, we combine GLEAM data with optical spectroscopy from the 6dF Galaxy Survey to construct a sample of 1 590 local (median $z \approx 0.064$ ) radio sources with $S_{200\,\mathrm{MHz}} > 55$ mJy across an area of ${\approx}16\,700\,\mathrm{deg}^{2}$ . From the optical spectra, we identify the dominant physical process responsible for the radio emission from each galaxy: 73% are fuelled by an active galactic nucleus (AGN) and 27% by star formation. We present the local radio luminosity function for AGN and star-forming (SF) galaxies at 200 MHz and characterise the typical radio spectra of these two populations between 76 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz. For the AGN, the median spectral index between 200 MHz and ${\sim}1$ GHz, $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$ , is $-0.600 \pm 0.010$ (where $S \propto \nu^{\alpha}$ ) and the median spectral index within the GLEAM band, $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$ , is $-0.704 \pm 0.011$ . For the SF galaxies, the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{high}}$ is $-0.650 \pm 0.010$ and the median value of $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}}$ is $-0.596 \pm 0.015$ . Among the AGN population, flat-spectrum sources are more common at lower radio luminosity, suggesting the existence of a significant population of weak radio AGN that remain core-dominated even at low frequencies. However, around 4% of local radio AGN have ultra-steep radio spectra at low frequencies ( $\alpha_{\mathrm{low}} < -1.2$ ). These ultra-steep-spectrum sources span a wide range in radio luminosity, and further work is needed to clarify their nature.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

In this paper, the generation of relativistic electron mirrors (REM) and the reflection of an ultra-short laser off the mirrors are discussed, applying two-dimension particle-in-cell simulations. REMs with ultra-high acceleration and expanding velocity can be produced from a solid nanofoil illuminated normally by an ultra-intense femtosecond laser pulse with a sharp rising edge. Chirped attosecond pulse can be produced through the reflection of a counter-propagating probe laser off the accelerating REM. In the electron moving frame, the plasma frequency of the REM keeps decreasing due to its rapid expansion. The laser frequency, on the contrary, keeps increasing due to the acceleration of REM and the relativistic Doppler shift from the lab frame to the electron moving frame. Within an ultra-short time interval, the two frequencies will be equal in the electron moving frame, which leads to the resonance between laser and REM. The reflected radiation near this interval and corresponding spectra will be amplified due to the resonance. Through adjusting the arriving time of the probe laser, a certain part of the reflected field could be selectively amplified or depressed, leading to the selective adjustment of the corresponding spectra.

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is an open access telescope dedicated to studying the low-frequency (80–300 MHz) southern sky. Since beginning operations in mid-2013, the MWA has opened a new observational window in the southern hemisphere enabling many science areas. The driving science objectives of the original design were to observe 21 cm radiation from the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR), explore the radio time domain, perform Galactic and extragalactic surveys, and monitor solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric phenomena. All together $60+$ programs recorded 20 000 h producing 146 papers to date. In 2016, the telescope underwent a major upgrade resulting in alternating compact and extended configurations. Other upgrades, including digital back-ends and a rapid-response triggering system, have been developed since the original array was commissioned. In this paper, we review the major results from the prior operation of the MWA and then discuss the new science paths enabled by the improved capabilities. We group these science opportunities by the four original science themes but also include ideas for directions outside these categories.

Precise bone cut is fundamental in total knee arthroplasty. However, notching of anterior femoral is not uncommon in clinical practice. Reviewing the article, notching and its complication may reach up to 30% and 2.5%, and there is scanty study of notching on the femoral strength. We therefore conduct the finite element analysis to elucidate the effect of notching on femoral mechanical strength. The computerized tomography images were used as the basis to develop the knee model, which was assumed mainly to consist of cortical and cancellous bones. For the implant joint, Zimmer data was considered partly as the basis to develop the model. This study investigated the femoral improper cut effect on the surgery with a static standing condition. The results show that the anterior femoral cut should be undercut 2 mm to overcut 1 mm during the surgery, in order to prevent bone materials from yielding. The exposure of the cancellous bone may cause bone materials to yield when the femur overcut was 2 mm; the cancellous bone may load too much and result in a fracture when the undercut was 3 mm. The effect of undercut, which was rarely discussed, was particularly addressed in our study. Precise femoral cut is crucial for the longevity of total knee arthroplasty.

The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is an electronically steered low-frequency (<300 MHz) radio interferometer, with a ‘slew’ time less than 8 s. Low-frequency (∼100 MHz) radio telescopes are ideally suited for rapid response follow-up of transients due to their large field of view, the inverted spectrum of coherent emission, and the fact that the dispersion delay between a 1 GHz and 100 MHz pulse is on the order of 1–10 min for dispersion measures of 100–2000 pc/cm3. The MWA has previously been used to provide fast follow-up for transient events including gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), fast radio bursts (FRBs), and gravitational waves, using systems that respond to gamma-ray coordinates network packet-based notifications. We describe a system for automatically triggering MWA observations of such events, based on Virtual Observatory Event standard triggers, which is more flexible, capable, and accurate than previous systems. The system can respond to external multi-messenger triggers, which makes it well-suited to searching for prompt coherent radio emission from GRBs, the study of FRBs and gravitational waves, single pulse studies of pulsars, and rapid follow-up of high-energy superflares from flare stars. The new triggering system has the capability to trigger observations in both the regular correlator mode (limited to ≥0.5 s integrations) and using the Voltage Capture System (VCS, 0.1 ms integration) of the MWA and represents a new mode of operation for the MWA. The upgraded standard correlator triggering capability has been in use since MWA observing semester 2018B (July–Dec 2018), and the VCS and buffered mode triggers will become available for observing in a future semester.

Seasonal influenza virus epidemics have a major impact on healthcare systems. Data on population susceptibility to emerging influenza virus strains during the interepidemic period can guide planning for resource allocation of an upcoming influenza season. This study sought to assess the population susceptibility to representative emerging influenza virus strains collected during the interepidemic period. The microneutralisation antibody titers (MN titers) of a human serum panel against representative emerging influenza strains collected during the interepidemic period before the 2018/2019 winter influenza season (H1N1-inter and H3N2-inter) were compared with those against influenza strains representative of previous epidemics (H1N1-pre and H3N2-pre). A multifaceted approach, incorporating both genetic and antigenic data, was used in selecting these representative influenza virus strains for the MN assay. A significantly higher proportion of individuals had a ⩾four-fold reduction in MN titers between H1N1-inter and H1N1-pre than that between H3N2-inter and H3N2-pre (28.5% (127/445) vs. 4.9% (22/445), P < 0.001). The geometric mean titer (GMT) of H1N1-inter was significantly lower than that of H1N1-pre (381 (95% CI 339–428) vs. 713 (95% CI 641–792), P < 0.001), while there was no significant difference in the GMT between H3N2-inter and H3N2-pre. Since A(H1N1) predominated the 2018–2019 winter influenza epidemic, our results corroborated the epidemic subtype.

Maternal systemic inflammation during pregnancy may restrict embryo−fetal growth, but the extent of this effect remains poorly established in undernourished populations. In a cohort of 653 maternal−newborn dyads participating in a multi-armed, micronutrient supplementation trial in southern Nepal, we investigated associations between maternal inflammation, assessed by serum α1-acid glycoprotein and C-reactive protein, in the first and third trimesters of pregnancy, and newborn weight, length and head and chest circumferences. Median (IQR) maternal concentrations in α1-acid glycoprotein and C-reactive protein in the first and third trimesters were 0.65 (0.53–0.76) and 0.40 (0.33–0.50) g/l, and 0.56 (0.25–1.54) and 1.07 (0.43–2.32) mg/l, respectively. α1-acid glycoprotein was inversely associated with birth size: weight, length, head circumference and chest circumference were lower by 116 g (P = 2.3 × 10−6), and 0.45 (P = 3.1 × 10−5), 0.18 (P = 0.0191) and 0.48 (P = 1.7 × 10−7) cm, respectively, per 50% increase in α1-acid glycoprotein averaged across both trimesters. Adjustment for maternal age, parity, gestational age, nutritional and socio-economic status and daily micronutrient supplementation failed to alter any association. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was largely unassociated with newborn size. In rural Nepal, birth size was inversely associated with low-grade, chronic inflammation during pregnancy as indicated by serum α1-acid glycoprotein.

We apply two methods to estimate the 21-cm bispectrum from data taken within the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) project of the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA). Using data acquired with the Phase II compact array allows a direct bispectrum estimate to be undertaken on the multiple redundantly spaced triangles of antenna tiles, as well as an estimate based on data gridded to the uv-plane. The direct and gridded bispectrum estimators are applied to 21 h of high-band (167–197 MHz; z = 6.2–7.5) data from the 2016 and 2017 observing seasons. Analytic predictions for the bispectrum bias and variance for point-source foregrounds are derived. We compare the output of these approaches, the foreground contribution to the signal, and future prospects for measuring the bispectra with redundant and non-redundant arrays. We find that some triangle configurations yield bispectrum estimates that are consistent with the expected noise level after 10 h, while equilateral configurations are strongly foreground-dominated. Careful choice of triangle configurations may be made to reduce foreground bias that hinders power spectrum estimators, and the 21-cm bispectrum may be accessible in less time than the 21-cm power spectrum for some wave modes, with detections in hundreds of hours.

The aim of the study was to investigate any association between extrauterine growth restriction (EUGR) and intestinal flora of <30-week-old preterm infants. A total of 59 preterm infants were assigned to EUGR (n=23) and non-EUGR (n=36) groups. Intestinal bacteria were compared by using high-throughput sequencing of bacterial rRNA. The total abundance of bacteria in 344 genera (7568 v. 13,760; P<0.0001) and 456 species (10,032 v. 18,240; P<0.0001) was significantly decreased in the EUGR group compared with the non-EUGR group. After application of a multivariate logistic model and adjusting for potential confounding factors, as well as false-discovery rate corrections, we found four bacterial genera with higher and one bacterial genus with lower abundance in the EUGR group compared with the control group. In addition, the EUGR group showed significantly increased abundances of six species (Streptococcus parasanguinis, Bacterium RB5FF6, two Klebsiella species and Microbacterium), but decreased frequencies of three species (one Acinetobacter species, Endosymbiont_of_Sphenophorus_lev and one Enterobacter_species) compared with the non-EUGR group. Taken together, there were significant changes in the intestinal microflora of preterm infants with EUGR compared to preterm infants without EUGR.

We provide the first in situ measurements of antenna element beam shapes of the Murchison Widefield Array. Most current processing pipelines use an assumed beam shape, which can cause absolute and relative flux density errors and polarisation ‘leakage’. Understanding the primary beam is then of paramount importance, especially for sensitive experiments such as a measurement of the 21-cm line from the epoch of reionisation, where the calibration requirements are so extreme that tile to tile beam variations may affect our ability to make a detection. Measuring the primary beam shape from visibilities is challenging, as multiple instrumental, atmospheric, and astrophysical factors contribute to uncertainties in the data. Building on the methods of Neben et al. [Radio Sci., 50, 614], we tap directly into the receiving elements of the telescope before any digitisation or correlation of the signal. Using ORBCOMM satellite passes we are able to produce all-sky maps for four separate tiles in the XX polarisation. We find good agreement with the beam model of Sokolowski et al. [2017, PASA, 34, e062], and clearly observe the effects of a missing dipole from a tile in one of our beam maps. We end by motivating and outlining additional on-site experiments.

We describe the motivation and design details of the ‘Phase II’ upgrade of the Murchison Widefield Array radio telescope. The expansion doubles to 256 the number of antenna tiles deployed in the array. The new antenna tiles enhance the capabilities of the Murchison Widefield Array in several key science areas. Seventy-two of the new tiles are deployed in a regular configuration near the existing array core. These new tiles enhance the surface brightness sensitivity of the array and will improve the ability of the Murchison Widefield Array to estimate the slope of the Epoch of Reionisation power spectrum by a factor of ∼3.5. The remaining 56 tiles are deployed on long baselines, doubling the maximum baseline of the array and improving the array u, v coverage. The improved imaging capabilities will provide an order of magnitude improvement in the noise floor of Murchison Widefield Array continuum images. The upgrade retains all of the features that have underpinned the Murchison Widefield Array’s success (large field of view, snapshot image quality, and pointing agility) and boosts the scientific potential with enhanced imaging capabilities and by enabling new calibration strategies.

Cultivated pastures in southern China are being used to improve forage productivity and animal performance, but studies on grazing behaviour of goats in these cultivated pastures are still rare. In the current study, the grazing behaviour of Yunling black goats under low (5 goats/ha) and high (15 goats/ha) stocking rates (SRs) was evaluated. Data showed that the proportion of time goats spent on activities was: eating (0.59–0.87), ruminating (0.05–0.35), walking (0.03–0.06) and resting (0.01–0.03). Compared with low SR, goats spent more time eating and walking, and less time ruminating and resting under high SR. Goats had similar diet preferences under both SR and preferred to eat grasses (ryegrass and cocksfoot) more than a legume (white clover). The distribution of eating time on each forage species was more uniform under high v. low SR. Bites/step, bite weight and daily intake were greater under low than high SR. Results suggest that the SR affects grazing behaviour of goats on cultivated pasture, and identifying an optimal SR is critical for increasing bite weight and intake.

The effective lifetimes of electronic packages are affected by various thermos-mechanical deformations. Creep is considered the most salient mechanism in the failure of solder joints. Many researchers have conducted reasonable studies to portray the behavior of creep deformation using numerical models and further extended their research scope to forecast the lifetimes of packages with the results obtained from creep models. Many studies have identified particular creep and lifetime models to be nominal based on experimental data.

In this study, the characteristics of familiar creep models were examined in detail, and their significance was made known. Lifetime prediction models that seem prominent among researchers were discussed in detail. Finite element analysis of a wafer level chip-scale package (WLCSP) used to figure out the engagement of different creep models and their capability of materializing creep deformation was investigated via simulation. The results from the simulation were applied to different lifetime prediction models, and their predictions were examined carefully. After considering the various factors that affected the reliability study of the solders, the Garofalo-Arrhenius creep model and modified strain energy density model seemed to be convincingly productive for studying the reliability of various electronic packages.

The study objective was to determine the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus colonisation in the nares and oropharynx of healthy persons and identify any risk factors associated with such S. aureus colonisation. In total 263 participants (177 adults and 86 minors) comprising 95 families were enrolled in a year-long prospective cohort study from one urban and one rural county in eastern Iowa, USA, through local newspaper advertisements and email lists and through the Keokuk Rural Health Study. Potential risk factors including demographic factors, medical history, farming and healthcare exposure were assessed. Among the participants, 25.4% of adults and 36.1% minors carried S. aureus in their nares and 37.9% of adults carried it in their oropharynx. The overall prevalence was 44.1% among adults and 36.1% for minors. Having at least one positive environmental site for S. aureus in the family home was associated with colonisation (prevalence ratio: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.07–1.66). The sensitivity of the oropharyngeal cultures was greater than that of the nares cultures (86.1% compared with 58.2%, respectively). In conclusion, the nares and oropharynx are both important colonisation sites for healthy community members and the presence of S. aureus in the home environment is associated with an increased probability of colonisation.