The hibernation sites of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus, L.) were discovered in central Mexico in 1975 and, following the decree of a protected area in 1986, processes of deforestation and forest degradation were triggered on the socially owned land in question. Further deterioration has occurred since the expansion and designation of the area as the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. An innovative programme of economic incentives was established to compensate the affected properties in the core zone for curtailment of their forest use and to pay for environmental services; however, some of the agrarian communities were in disagreement with this programme. Orthophotographs from 1994 were compared with high-resolution satellite images from 2017 in order to determine forest-cover trends in the areas incentivized by Payment for Environmental Services to avoid deforestation and those areas that were not incentivized. The results show an overall recovery of 2% in forest area between 1994 and 2017, while a 5% increase in the deforested area is notable in the core zone. The findings indicate that, for the establishment of an effective protected area on social property lands, consensus must be achieved across all of the communities in order to avoid subsequent forest loss.

During the second half of the 20th century, the Antarctic Peninsula region has undergone a long and sustained warming period, followed by a shorter but also sustained cooling period, and then a very recent return to warming conditions. All of these have profoundly impacted the glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Peninsula. This paper focuses on the analysis of the surface mass balance monitoring of such glaciers by the glaciological method, complemented by the analysis of mass-balance estimates by geodetic methods, as well as frontal ablation estimates. We aim to summarize the current knowledge and outline the main challenges faced by investigating the mass balance of such peripheral glaciers and their current contribution to sea-level rise.

Callous Unemotional (CU) traits are associated with different environmental risk factors, such as negative stressful life events (SLE). The most common studied SLE associated with CU trait has been childhood maltreatment, but less is known about how other SLE impact the development of CU traits. Therefore, this work examines risk factors, personal factors (executive functioning), and mental health outcomes associated with the trajectories of Callous Unemotional (CU) traits and Stressful Life Events (SLE) in a community sample of children. A cohort of 377 preschoolers were followed up between ages 3 and 10. Several risk factors and outcomes for three trajectory groups (high CU/SLE; high CU/low SLE; and the reference group with low CU/SLE) were analyzed by using multiple post-hoc comparisons. We hypothesized that children with high CU/SLE would face more contextual risk factors, more executive functioning difficulties and more mental health problems than children with high CU/low SLE or the reference group. At the age of 3, children who showed high CU/SLE faced more early contextual adversity, including socioeconomic difficulties and maternal antisocial behavior than the other groups of children. At the age of 10, children with high CU/SLE presented more peer problems and higher psychopathology symptoms than the reference group, but no differences on mental health outcomes in comparison to the high CU/low SLE group. These results have potential implications for clinical practice and studies attempting to identify different CU subtypes in children.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The Title V Coop developed CRESCO, a physical and virtual space in the libraries of the two cooperating institutions. Adopting a flexible and transformational approach, it offers services to support the development of research and information skills of undergraduate students and faculty who receive clinical-translational research (CTR) training. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Since 2016, CRESCO has been staffed by a multidisciplinary team composed of three librarians, a statistician, an instructional designer, and an IT specialist. The physical facilities of the two libraries were remodeled and equipped, and a central portal was created to provide services and access to resources on a 7/24 basis. Online tutorials, workshops, and mentoring services have been offered that address topics in statistics, literature search, plagiarism, and the use of several research software. Services statistics are collected, and a questionnaire is administered to evaluate the workshops. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The main results include 12 online tutorials created in CTR areas and available in the CRESCO hub portal; 14,660 mentoring/consultations offered in statistics, the use of research-related software, and the search for scientific literature search; and 6 online workshops created in CTR areas, with 463 attendees. When evaluating online workshops, participants considered that their acquired learning was high or extremely high on the following topics: use of Intellectus Statistics (88%, n = 96); selection of statistical tests (81%, n = 92); use of Turnitin (85%, n = 76); literature search (91%, n = 58); and citations and references in Mendeley (90%, n = 67). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that the flexible, multidisciplinary, and transformational approach of CRESCO has been successful in helping undergraduate students and faculty develop the skills necessary to conduct CTR projects.

In the ablation zone of glacier habitats, cryoconite holes are known to harbor diverse microbial communities, including unique diatom floras distinct from those of surrounding aquatic and terrestrial systems. Besides descriptive studies, little is known about the diversity of cryoconite diatoms and their response to environmental stressors, particularly in low-latitude glaciers. This paper documents an extremely diversified diatom community in Antisana Glacier (Ecuador), reporting 278 taxa found in 54 surface holes, although with low individual abundances. Contrary to our expectations, assemblage structure did not respond to water physical or chemical characteristics, nor to cryoconite hole morphology, but to elevation. We demonstrate that elevation is a driver of diatom assemblages. Both alpha diversity (measured as Fisher's index) and species richness (corrected for unequal sample sizes) correlated negatively with elevation, suggesting a replacement toward simplified, poorer communities along this gradient. The taxonomic composition also changed significantly, as revealed by multivariate statistics. In summary, cryoconite holes are sites of high taxonomic diversity composed of taxa that are allochthonous in origin.

Analyze whether the content of three moral messages (deontological, ethical utilitarianism, ethical virtue) and a control message differentially affect the probability of engaging in four behaviors: Washing their hands, participating in public gatherings, staying at home/avoiding social contact, and forwarding the message to inform more people. In our study, the sender of the message is a university professor. These variables are measured in terms of their behavioral intentions and others’ behavioral intentions (beliefs about others’ behavior). Randomized Controlled Trial. Our study includes the analysis of the possible moderating effect of the country of residence (Spain n = 1,122, Chile n = 1,107, and Colombia n = 1,433). The message with content referring to ethical virtue and staying at home obtains statistically significant lower scores on the probability of carrying out public health behaviors and sharing the message received. Regarding beliefs about the behavior of others, the message of ethical virtue has the same negative effect, but only on the likelihood of other people washing their hands, staying at home, and sharing the public health message. Institutional messages aimed at promoting public health behaviors are necessary in a pandemic situation. Our recommendation is to use deontological and utilitarian, or non-moral, content.

We surveyed 348 Psychology and Education researchers within Spain, on issues such as their perception of a crisis in Science, their confidence in the quality of published results, and the use of questionable research practices (QRP). Their perceptions regarding pressure to publish and academic competition were also collected. The results indicate that a large proportion of the sample of Spanish academics think there is a crisis in Science, mainly due to a lack of economic investment, and doubts the quality of published findings. They also feel strong pressure to publish in high impact factor journals and a highly competitive work climate.

The study of the distributions of sums of dependent risks is a key topic in actuarial sciences, risk management, reliability and in many branches of applied and theoretical probability. However, there are few results where the distribution of the sum of dependent random variables is available in a closed form. In this paper, we obtain several analytical expressions for the distribution of the aggregated risks under dependence in terms of copulas. We provide several representations based on the underlying copula and the marginal distribution functions under general hypotheses and in any dimension. Then, we study stochastic comparisons between sums of dependent risks. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical results by studying some specific models obtained from Clayton, Ali-Mikhail-Haq and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copulas. Extensions to more general copulas are also included. Bounds and the limiting behavior of the hazard rate function for the aggregated distribution of some copulas are studied as well.

This study explored the effect of the perceived social content of affective pictures on the subjective evaluation of affective valence and arousal. For this purpose, we established three categories of social content (pictures without people, with one person and with two or more people). A sample of 161 subjects rated 200 pictures varying in affective valence (unpleasant, neutral, and pleasant), arousal and social content. Results of two-factor analysis of variance, F(4, 157) = 71.7, p < .001, ηp2 = .31, showed that perceived social content influenced the ratings of affective valence, specially for unpleasant pictures, with the greatest social content (two or more people) leading subjects to rate unpleasant pictures with the lowest ratings (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .001). Regarding arousal, F(4, 157) = 64.0, p < .001, ηp2 = .29), the higher the social content, the higher the arousal ratings, but only for pleasant (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .007) and unpleasant (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .001) pictures. Overall, this study demonstrated an effect of the perceived social content on the subjective evaluation of affective valence and arousal of emotional stimuli.

Several studies have shown that the Brazilian Northeast is a region with high rates of inbreeding as well as a high incidence of autosomal recessive diseases. The elaboration of public health policies focused on the epidemiological surveillance of congenital anomalies and rare genetic diseases in this region is urgently needed. However, the vast territory, socio-demographic heterogeneity, economic difficulties and low number of professionals with expertise in medical genetics make strategic planning a challenging task. Surnames can be compared to a genetic system with multiple neutral alleles and allow some approximation of population structure. Here, surname analysis of more than 37 million people was combined with health and socio-demographic indicators covering all 1794 municipalities of the nine states of the region. The data distribution showed a heterogeneous spatial pattern (Global Moran Index, GMI = 0.58; p < 0.001), with higher isonymy rates in the east of the region and the highest rates in the Quilombo dos Palmares region – the largest conglomerate of escaped slaves in Latin America. A positive correlation was found between the isonymy index and the frequency of live births with congenital anomalies (r = 0.268; p < 0.001), and the two indicators were spatially correlated (GMI = 0.50; p < 0.001). With this approach, quantitative information on the genetic structure of the Brazilian Northeast population was obtained, which may represent an economical and useful tool for decision-making in the medical field.

We present a detailed overview of the cosmological surveys that we aim to carry out with Phase 1 of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA1) and the science that they will enable. We highlight three main surveys: a medium-deep continuum weak lensing and low-redshift spectroscopic HI galaxy survey over 5 000 deg2; a wide and deep continuum galaxy and HI intensity mapping (IM) survey over 20 000 deg2 from $z = 0.35$ to 3; and a deep, high-redshift HI IM survey over 100 deg2 from $z = 3$ to 6. Taken together, these surveys will achieve an array of important scientific goals: measuring the equation of state of dark energy out to $z \sim 3$ with percent-level precision measurements of the cosmic expansion rate; constraining possible deviations from General Relativity on cosmological scales by measuring the growth rate of structure through multiple independent methods; mapping the structure of the Universe on the largest accessible scales, thus constraining fundamental properties such as isotropy, homogeneity, and non-Gaussianity; and measuring the HI density and bias out to $z = 6$ . These surveys will also provide highly complementary clustering and weak lensing measurements that have independent systematic uncertainties to those of optical and near-infrared (NIR) surveys like Euclid, LSST, and WFIRST leading to a multitude of synergies that can improve constraints significantly beyond what optical or radio surveys can achieve on their own. This document, the 2018 Red Book, provides reference technical specifications, cosmological parameter forecasts, and an overview of relevant systematic effects for the three key surveys and will be regularly updated by the Cosmology Science Working Group in the run up to start of operations and the Key Science Programme of SKA1.

The Ecuadorian coast has two main types of forests, which are differentiated by their phenology: dry forests are deciduous and more humid forests are evergreen. Less of the dry forests on the Ecuadorian coast is protected (13% of its area) than the evergreen forests (28%), and the area devoted to the protection of dry forests (1069 km2) is substantially less than the area devoted to the protection of evergreen forests (2800 km2). Yet the conservation status of dry forests is more critical, with 83% of their area classified as having very low connectivity, 70% as being highly fragile and 86% as being highly threatened. In addition, the dry forests have fewer protected areas than the evergreen forests. It is therefore necessary to increase the protection of deciduous ecosystems as part of a comprehensive national strategy because they support high levels of biodiversity and many endemic species.