How do international crises unfold? We conceptualize international relations as a strategic chess game between adversaries and develop a systematic way to measure pieces, moves, and gambits accurately and consistently over a hundred years of history. We introduce a new ontology and dataset of international events called ICBe based on a very high-quality corpus of narratives from the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project. We demonstrate that ICBe has higher coverage, recall, and precision than existing state of the art datasets and conduct two detailed case studies of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and the Crimea-Donbas Crisis (2014). We further introduce two new event visualizations (event iconography and crisis maps), an automated benchmark for measuring event recall using natural language processing (synthetic narratives), and an ontology reconstruction task for objectively measuring event precision. We make the data, supplementary appendix, replication material, and visualizations of every historical episode available at a companion website crisisevents.org.

The N141I variant (PSEN1 gene) is associated with familial forms of early-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in descendants of Volga Germans, whose migration to Argentina is well documented. As a proxy for geographic origin, surnames can be a valuable tool in population studies. The 2015 Argentine Electoral Registry provided geographic data for 30,530,194 individuals, including 326,922 with Volga German surnames. Between 2005 and 2017, the Ministry of Health recorded 4,115,216 deaths, of which 17,226 were attributed to AD and related causes. The study used both diachronic and synchronic data to identify patterns of territorial distribution and co-spatiality, using Moran’s I and generalised linear model statistics. The frequency of surnames of Volga German origin accounts for 43.53% of the variation in deaths from AD and three clusters of high non-random frequency were found. Almost 150 years later, people descending from the Volga migration remain highly concentrated and may have a different risk of developing AD. The identification of spatial patterns provides reliable guidance for medical research and highlights the importance of specific health policies for particular populations.

During the second half of the 20th century, the Antarctic Peninsula region has undergone a long and sustained warming period, followed by a shorter but also sustained cooling period, and then a very recent return to warming conditions. All of these have profoundly impacted the glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic Peninsula. This paper focuses on the analysis of the surface mass balance monitoring of such glaciers by the glaciological method, complemented by the analysis of mass-balance estimates by geodetic methods, as well as frontal ablation estimates. We aim to summarize the current knowledge and outline the main challenges faced by investigating the mass balance of such peripheral glaciers and their current contribution to sea-level rise.

The hibernation sites of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus, L.) were discovered in central Mexico in 1975 and, following the decree of a protected area in 1986, processes of deforestation and forest degradation were triggered on the socially owned land in question. Further deterioration has occurred since the expansion and designation of the area as the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in 2000. An innovative programme of economic incentives was established to compensate the affected properties in the core zone for curtailment of their forest use and to pay for environmental services; however, some of the agrarian communities were in disagreement with this programme. Orthophotographs from 1994 were compared with high-resolution satellite images from 2017 in order to determine forest-cover trends in the areas incentivized by Payment for Environmental Services to avoid deforestation and those areas that were not incentivized. The results show an overall recovery of 2% in forest area between 1994 and 2017, while a 5% increase in the deforested area is notable in the core zone. The findings indicate that, for the establishment of an effective protected area on social property lands, consensus must be achieved across all of the communities in order to avoid subsequent forest loss.

Callous Unemotional (CU) traits are associated with different environmental risk factors, such as negative stressful life events (SLE). The most common studied SLE associated with CU trait has been childhood maltreatment, but less is known about how other SLE impact the development of CU traits. Therefore, this work examines risk factors, personal factors (executive functioning), and mental health outcomes associated with the trajectories of Callous Unemotional (CU) traits and Stressful Life Events (SLE) in a community sample of children. A cohort of 377 preschoolers were followed up between ages 3 and 10. Several risk factors and outcomes for three trajectory groups (high CU/SLE; high CU/low SLE; and the reference group with low CU/SLE) were analyzed by using multiple post-hoc comparisons. We hypothesized that children with high CU/SLE would face more contextual risk factors, more executive functioning difficulties and more mental health problems than children with high CU/low SLE or the reference group. At the age of 3, children who showed high CU/SLE faced more early contextual adversity, including socioeconomic difficulties and maternal antisocial behavior than the other groups of children. At the age of 10, children with high CU/SLE presented more peer problems and higher psychopathology symptoms than the reference group, but no differences on mental health outcomes in comparison to the high CU/low SLE group. These results have potential implications for clinical practice and studies attempting to identify different CU subtypes in children.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The Title V Coop developed CRESCO, a physical and virtual space in the libraries of the two cooperating institutions. Adopting a flexible and transformational approach, it offers services to support the development of research and information skills of undergraduate students and faculty who receive clinical-translational research (CTR) training. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Since 2016, CRESCO has been staffed by a multidisciplinary team composed of three librarians, a statistician, an instructional designer, and an IT specialist. The physical facilities of the two libraries were remodeled and equipped, and a central portal was created to provide services and access to resources on a 7/24 basis. Online tutorials, workshops, and mentoring services have been offered that address topics in statistics, literature search, plagiarism, and the use of several research software. Services statistics are collected, and a questionnaire is administered to evaluate the workshops. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The main results include 12 online tutorials created in CTR areas and available in the CRESCO hub portal; 14,660 mentoring/consultations offered in statistics, the use of research-related software, and the search for scientific literature search; and 6 online workshops created in CTR areas, with 463 attendees. When evaluating online workshops, participants considered that their acquired learning was high or extremely high on the following topics: use of Intellectus Statistics (88%, n = 96); selection of statistical tests (81%, n = 92); use of Turnitin (85%, n = 76); literature search (91%, n = 58); and citations and references in Mendeley (90%, n = 67). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that the flexible, multidisciplinary, and transformational approach of CRESCO has been successful in helping undergraduate students and faculty develop the skills necessary to conduct CTR projects.

In the ablation zone of glacier habitats, cryoconite holes are known to harbor diverse microbial communities, including unique diatom floras distinct from those of surrounding aquatic and terrestrial systems. Besides descriptive studies, little is known about the diversity of cryoconite diatoms and their response to environmental stressors, particularly in low-latitude glaciers. This paper documents an extremely diversified diatom community in Antisana Glacier (Ecuador), reporting 278 taxa found in 54 surface holes, although with low individual abundances. Contrary to our expectations, assemblage structure did not respond to water physical or chemical characteristics, nor to cryoconite hole morphology, but to elevation. We demonstrate that elevation is a driver of diatom assemblages. Both alpha diversity (measured as Fisher's index) and species richness (corrected for unequal sample sizes) correlated negatively with elevation, suggesting a replacement toward simplified, poorer communities along this gradient. The taxonomic composition also changed significantly, as revealed by multivariate statistics. In summary, cryoconite holes are sites of high taxonomic diversity composed of taxa that are allochthonous in origin.

Analyze whether the content of three moral messages (deontological, ethical utilitarianism, ethical virtue) and a control message differentially affect the probability of engaging in four behaviors: Washing their hands, participating in public gatherings, staying at home/avoiding social contact, and forwarding the message to inform more people. In our study, the sender of the message is a university professor. These variables are measured in terms of their behavioral intentions and others’ behavioral intentions (beliefs about others’ behavior). Randomized Controlled Trial. Our study includes the analysis of the possible moderating effect of the country of residence (Spain n = 1,122, Chile n = 1,107, and Colombia n = 1,433). The message with content referring to ethical virtue and staying at home obtains statistically significant lower scores on the probability of carrying out public health behaviors and sharing the message received. Regarding beliefs about the behavior of others, the message of ethical virtue has the same negative effect, but only on the likelihood of other people washing their hands, staying at home, and sharing the public health message. Institutional messages aimed at promoting public health behaviors are necessary in a pandemic situation. Our recommendation is to use deontological and utilitarian, or non-moral, content.

We surveyed 348 Psychology and Education researchers within Spain, on issues such as their perception of a crisis in Science, their confidence in the quality of published results, and the use of questionable research practices (QRP). Their perceptions regarding pressure to publish and academic competition were also collected. The results indicate that a large proportion of the sample of Spanish academics think there is a crisis in Science, mainly due to a lack of economic investment, and doubts the quality of published findings. They also feel strong pressure to publish in high impact factor journals and a highly competitive work climate.

The study of the distributions of sums of dependent risks is a key topic in actuarial sciences, risk management, reliability and in many branches of applied and theoretical probability. However, there are few results where the distribution of the sum of dependent random variables is available in a closed form. In this paper, we obtain several analytical expressions for the distribution of the aggregated risks under dependence in terms of copulas. We provide several representations based on the underlying copula and the marginal distribution functions under general hypotheses and in any dimension. Then, we study stochastic comparisons between sums of dependent risks. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical results by studying some specific models obtained from Clayton, Ali-Mikhail-Haq and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copulas. Extensions to more general copulas are also included. Bounds and the limiting behavior of the hazard rate function for the aggregated distribution of some copulas are studied as well.

This study explored the effect of the perceived social content of affective pictures on the subjective evaluation of affective valence and arousal. For this purpose, we established three categories of social content (pictures without people, with one person and with two or more people). A sample of 161 subjects rated 200 pictures varying in affective valence (unpleasant, neutral, and pleasant), arousal and social content. Results of two-factor analysis of variance, F(4, 157) = 71.7, p < .001, ηp2 = .31, showed that perceived social content influenced the ratings of affective valence, specially for unpleasant pictures, with the greatest social content (two or more people) leading subjects to rate unpleasant pictures with the lowest ratings (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .001). Regarding arousal, F(4, 157) = 64.0, p < .001, ηp2 = .29), the higher the social content, the higher the arousal ratings, but only for pleasant (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .007) and unpleasant (all pairwise comparisons’ p < .001) pictures. Overall, this study demonstrated an effect of the perceived social content on the subjective evaluation of affective valence and arousal of emotional stimuli.