In April 2019, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) released its recovery plan for the jaguar Panthera onca after several decades of discussion, litigation and controversy about the status of the species in the USA. The USFWS estimated that potential habitat, south of the Interstate-10 highway in Arizona and New Mexico, had a carrying capacity of c. six jaguars, and so focused its recovery programme on areas south of the USA–Mexico border. Here we present a systematic review of the modelling and assessment efforts over the last 25 years, with a focus on areas north of Interstate-10 in Arizona and New Mexico, outside the recovery unit considered by the USFWS. Despite differences in data inputs, methods, and analytical extent, the nine previous studies found support for potential suitable jaguar habitat in the central mountain ranges of Arizona and New Mexico. Applying slightly modified versions of the USFWS model and recalculating an Arizona-focused model over both states provided additional confirmation. Extending the area of consideration also substantially raised the carrying capacity of habitats in Arizona and New Mexico, from six to 90 or 151 adult jaguars, using the modified USFWS models. This review demonstrates the crucial ways in which choosing the extent of analysis influences the conclusions of a conservation plan. More importantly, it opens a new opportunity for jaguar conservation in North America that could help address threats from habitat losses, climate change and border infrastructure.

High dietary phosphorus (P), particularly soluble salts, may contribute to chronic kidney disease development in cats. The aim of the present study was to assess the safety of P supplied at 1 g/1000 kcal (4184kJ) from a highly soluble P salt in P-rich dry format feline diets. Seventy-five healthy adult cats (n 25/group) were fed either a low P control (1·4 g/1000 kcal [4184kJ]; Ca:P ratio 0·97) or one of two test diets with 4 g/1000 kcal (4184 kJ); Ca:P 1·04 or 5 g/1000 kcal (4184kJ); Ca:P 1·27, both incorporating 1 g/1000 kcal (4184 kJ) sodium tripolyphosphate (STPP) – for a period of 30 weeks in a randomised parallel-group study. Health markers in blood and urine, glomerular filtration rate, renal ultrasound and bone density were assessed at baseline and at regular time points. At the end of the test period, responses following transition to a commercial diet (total P – 2·34 g/1000 kcal [4184kJ], Ca:P 1·3) for a 4-week washout period were also assessed. No adverse effects on general, kidney or bone (skeletal) function and health were observed. P and Ca balance, some serum biochemistry parameters and regulatory hormones were increased in cats fed test diets from week 2 onwards (P ≤ 0·05). Data from the washout period suggest that increased serum creatinine and urea values observed in the two test diet groups were influenced by dietary differences during the test period, and not indicative of changes in renal function. The present data suggest no observed adverse effect level for feline diets containing 1 g P/1000 kcal (4184 kJ) from STPP and total P level of up to 5 g/1000 kcal (4184 kJ) when fed for 30 weeks.

On January 29, 2020, a total of 195 US citizens were evacuated from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Wuhan, China, to March Air Reserve Base in Riverside, California, and entered the first federally mandated quarantine in over 50 years. With less than 1-d notice, a multi-disciplinary team from Riverside County and Riverside University Health System in conjunction with local and federal agencies established on-site 24-h medical care and behavioral health support. This report details the coordinated efforts by multiple teams that took place to provide care for the passengers and to support the surrounding community.

The perinatal period is a vulnerable time for the development of psychopathology, particularly mood and anxiety disorders. In the study of maternal anxiety, important questions remain regarding the association between maternal anxiety symptoms and subsequent child outcomes. This study examined the association between depressive and anxiety symptoms, namely social anxiety, panic, and agoraphobia disorder symptoms during the perinatal period and maternal perception of child behavior, specifically different facets of development and temperament. Participants (N = 104) were recruited during pregnancy from a community sample. Participants completed clinician-administered and self-report measures of depressive and anxiety symptoms during the third trimester of pregnancy and at 16 months postpartum; child behavior and temperament outcomes were assessed at 16 months postpartum. Child development areas included gross and fine motor skills, language and problem-solving abilities, and personal/social skills. Child temperament domains included surgency, negative affectivity, and effortful control. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses demonstrated that elevated prenatal social anxiety symptoms significantly predicted more negative maternal report of child behavior across most measured domains. Elevated prenatal social anxiety and panic symptoms predicted more negative maternal report of child effortful control. Depressive and agoraphobia symptoms were not significant predictors of child outcomes. Elevated anxiety symptoms appear to have a distinct association with maternal report of child development and temperament. Considering the relative influence of anxiety symptoms, particularly social anxiety, on maternal report of child behavior and temperament can help to identify potential difficulties early on in mother–child interactions as well as inform interventions for women and their families.

This article explores the influence of East Asia's economic growth on the evolution of American neoconservative thought in the 1970s and 1980s. It traces how prominent neoconservative thinkers—Nathan Glazer, Peter L. Berger, Herman Kahn, Michael Novak, and Lawrence E. Harrison—developed the claim that the region's prosperity stemmed from its alleged Confucian tradition. Drawing in part from East Asian leaders and scholars, they argued that the region's growth demonstrated that tradition had facilitated, rather than hampered, the development of a distinct East Asian capitalist modernity. The article argues that this Confucian thesis helped American neoconservatives articulate their conviction that “natural” social hierarchies, religious commitment, and traditional families were necessary for healthy and free capitalist societies. It then charts how neoconservatives mobilized this interpretation of Confucian East Asia against postcolonial critiques of capitalism, especially dependency theory. East Asia, they claimed, demonstrated that poverty and wealth were determined not by patterns of welfare, structural exploitation, or foreign assistance, but values and culture. The concept of Confucian capitalism, the article shows, was central to neoconservatives’ broad ideological agenda of protecting political, economic, and racial inequality under the guise of values, culture, and tradition.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are statistical tools used to develop continuous predictions of species occurrence. ‘Integrated SDMs’ (ISDMs) are an elaboration of this approach with potential advantages that allow for the dual use of opportunistically collected presence-only data and site-occupancy data from planned surveys. These models also account for survey bias and imperfect detection through the use of a hierarchical modelling framework that separately estimates the species–environment response and detection process. This is particularly helpful for conservation applications and predictions for rare species, where data are often limited and prediction errors may have significant management consequences. Despite this potential importance, ISDMs remain largely untested under a variety of scenarios. We performed an exploration of key modelling decisions and assumptions on an ISDM using the endangered Baird’s tapir (Tapirus bairdii) as a test species. We found that site area had the strongest effect on the magnitude of population estimates and underlying intensity surface and was driven by estimates of model intercepts. Selecting a site area that accounted for the individual movements of the species within an average home range led to population estimates that coincided with expert estimates. ISDMs that do not account for the individual movements of species will likely lead to less accurate estimates of species intensity (number of individuals per unit area) and thus overall population estimates. This bias could be severe and highly detrimental to conservation actions if uninformed ISDMs are used to estimate global populations of threatened and data-deficient species, particularly those that lack natural history and movement information. However, the ISDM was consistently the most accurate model compared to other approaches, which demonstrates the importance of this new modelling framework and the ability to combine opportunistic data with systematic survey data. Thus, we recommend researchers use ISDMs with conservative movement information when estimating population sizes of rare and data-deficient species. ISDMs could be improved by using a similar parameterization to spatial capture–recapture models that explicitly incorporate animal movement as a model parameter, which would further remove the need for spatial subsampling prior to implementation.

Objective: Few studies have investigated the assessment and functional impact of egocentric and allocentric neglect among stroke patients. This pilot study aimed to determine (1) whether allocentric and egocentric neglect could be dissociated among a sample of stroke patients using eye tracking; (2) the specific patterns of attention associated with each subtype; and (3) the nature of the relationship between neglect subtype and functional outcome. Method: Twenty acute stroke patients were administered neuropsychological assessment batteries, a pencil-and-paper Apples Test to measure neglect subtype, and an adaptation of the Apples Test with an eye tracking measure. To test clinical discriminability, twenty age- and education-matched control participants were administered the eye tracking measure of neglect. Results: The eye tracking measure identified a greater number of individuals as having egocentric and/or allocentric neglect than the pencil-and-paper Apples Test. Classification of neglect subtype based on eye tracking performance was a significant predictor of functional outcome beyond that accounted for by the neuropsychological test performance and Apples Test neglect classification. Preliminary evidence suggests that patients with no neglect symptoms had superior functional outcomes compared with patients with neglect. Patients with combined egocentric and allocentric neglect had poorer functional outcomes than those with either subtype. Functional outcomes of patients with either allocentric or egocentric neglect did not differ significantly. The applications of our findings, to improve neglect detection, are discussed. Conclusion: Results highlight the potential clinical utility of eye tracking for the assessment and identification of neglect subtype among stroke patients to predict functional outcomes. (JINS, 2019, 25, 479–489)

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: To evaluate the ability of various techniques to track changes in body fluid volumes before and after a rapid infusion of saline. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Eight healthy participants (5M; 3F) completed baseline measurements of 1) total body water using ethanol dilution and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and 2) blood volume, plasma volume and red blood cell (RBC) volume using carbon monoxide rebreathe technique and I-131 albumin dilution. Subsequently, 30mL saline/kg body weight was administered intravenously over 20 minutes after which BIA and ethanol dilution were repeated. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: On average, 2.29±0.35 L saline was infused with an average increase in net fluid input-output (I/O) of 1.56±0.29 L. BIA underestimated measured I/O by −3.4±7.9%, while ethanol dilution did not demonstrate a measurable change in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe differed from I-131 albumin dilution measurements of blood, plasma and RBC volumes by +0.6±2.8%, −5.4±3.6%, and +11.0±4.7%, respectively. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: BIA is capable of tracking modest changes in total body water. Carbon monoxide rebreathe appears to be a viable alternative for the I-131 albumin dilution technique to determine blood volume. Together, these two techniques may be useful in monitoring fluid status in patients with impaired fluid regulation.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: Community health coalitions (CHC) aim to improve local cultures of health, health behaviors, and health outcomes. However, challenges sustaining partnerships and activities limit CHC impact. Traditional CHC evaluations survey members about perceived effectiveness, failing to capture underlying network structures and community health outcomes. Thus, we applied a mixed-methods evaluation in eight rural Indiana CHC, triangulating social network analysis [(SNA), conducted in 2017], functioning effectiveness [Coalition Self-Assessment Survey (CSAS), also 2017], and latest county health statistics (2015–2016) to assess existing CHC building efforts, inform best practices, and facilitate the adoption of evidence-based programming. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Across the eight rural Indiana CHC, relationships between the three evaluation components were analyzed using Pearson’s correlations. We are now collaborating with Purdue’s Nutrition Education Program Community Wellness Coordinators to scale up evaluation efforts throughout Indiana. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: CHC effectiveness was positively correlated with the average number of connections CHC members held in the network (mean indegree) and negatively correlated with the presence of a network broker (eigenvector centrality). However, effective leadership was positively correlated with opioid deaths and treatment, food insecurity, smoking during pregnancy, lack of healthcare coverage, and fair/ poor health status, and negatively correlated with prenatal care. Effective operating norms was positively correlated with smoking during pregnancy and preterm births, and negatively correlated with prenatal care. Effective action outcomes was positively correlated with opioid deaths and treatments, smoking during pregnancy, preterm births, and fair/ poor health status, and negatively correlated with respondents reporting they had no personal doctor. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Interestingly, CHC effectiveness was positively correlated with poor county health outcomes related to infant well-being. Thus, CHC may develop in counties with a high unmet need for effective pregnancy and infant services. Alternatively, the prevalent CHC focus on obesity prevention may eclipse programmatic efforts to improve infant well-being. Longitudinal evaluations and scaling up evaluation efforts across Indiana are being pursued to clarify trajectories and inform best practices, which in turn should provide recommendations for network structures to improve CHC effectiveness and county health.

Japan's remarkable postwar growth spurt in the 1960s would not have been possible without Japan's alliance with the United States. Policy makers, political scientists, economists, historians, and journalists on both sides of the Pacific have made this claim, but no study has yet tested it with modern statistical methods. In this article, we compare the economic growth trajectories of Japan and a statistically constructed “synthetic” Japan, which had a similar profile until the late 1950s but did not experience the consolidation of the US–Japan alliance, a process that began in 1958 and culminated with the signing of a formal defense pact in January 1960. We find that Japan's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than the synthetic Japan's from 1958 to 1968. We substantiate these results with in-depth historical analyses on how the United States facilitated Japan's economic miracle.