The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Protected areas (PAs) are critical for achieving conservation, economic and development goals, but the factors that lead households to engage in prohibited resource collection in PAs are not well understood. We examine collection behaviours in community forests and the protected Chitwan National Park in Chitwan, Nepal. Our approach incorporates household and ecological data, including structured interviews, spatially explicit data on collection behaviours measured with computer tablets and a systematic field survey of invasive species. We pair our data with a framework that considers factors related to a household’s demand for resources, barriers to prohibited resource collection, barriers to legal resource collection and alternatives to resource collection. The analysis identifies key drivers of prohibited collection, including sociodemographic variables and perceptions of an invasive plant (Mikania micrantha). The social-ecological systems approach reveals that household perceptions of the presence of M. micrantha were more strongly associated with resource collection decisions than the actual ecologically measured presence of the plant. We explore the policy implications of our findings for PAs and propose that employing a social-ecological systems approach leads to conservation policy and scientific insights that are not possible to achieve with social or ecological approaches alone.

A shock-induced separation loss reduction method, using local blade suction surface shape modification (smooth ramp structure) with constant adverse pressure gradient with the consideration of radial equilibrium effect to split a single shock foot into multiple weaker shock wave configuration, is investigated on the NASA Rotor 37 for promoting aerodynamic performance of a transonic compressor rotor. Numerical investigation on baseline blade and improved one with blade modification on suction side has been conducted employing the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method to reveal flow physics of ramp structure. The results indicate that the passage shock foot of baseline is replaced with a family of compression waves and a weaker shock foot generating moderate adverse pressure gradient on ramp profile, which is beneficial for mitigating the shock foot and shrinking flow separation region as well. In addition, the radial secondary flow of low-momentum fluids within boundary layer is decreased significantly in the region of passage shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction on blade suction side, which mitigates the mass flow and mixing intensity of tip leakage flow. With the reduction of flow separation loss induced by passage shock, the adiabatic efficiency and total pressure ratio of improved rotor are superior to baseline model. This study herein implies a potential application of ramp profile in design method of transonic and supersonic compressors.

We present a new and straightforward algorithm that simulates exact sample paths for a generalized stress-release process. The computation of the exact law of the joint inter-arrival times is detailed and used to derive this algorithm. Furthermore, the martingale generator of the process is derived, and induces theoretical moments which generalize some results of [3] and are used to demonstrate the validity of our simulation algorithm.

Without rapid international action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, climate scientists have predicted catastrophic sea-level rise by 2100. Globally, archaeologists are documenting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal cultural heritage. Here, the authors model the impact of 1m, 2m and 5m sea-level rise on China's coastal archaeological sites using data from the Atlas of Chinese Cultural Relics and Shanghai City's Third National Survey of Cultural Relics. Although the resulting number of endangered sites is large, the authors argue that these represent only a fraction of those actually at risk, and they issue a call to mitigate the direct and indirect effects of rising sea levels.

Ascaridia galli (Nematoda: Ascaridiidae) is the most common intestinal roundworm of chickens and other birds with a worldwide distribution. Although A. galli has been extensively studied, knowledge of the genetic variation of this parasite in detail is still insufficient. The present study examined genetic variation in the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene among A. galli isolates (n = 26) from domestic chickens in Hunan Province, China. A portion of the cox1 (pcox1) gene was amplified by polymerase chain reaction separately from adult A. galli individuals and the amplicons were subjected to sequencing from both directions. The length of the sequences of pcox1 is 441 bp. Although the intra-specific sequence variation within A. galli is 0–7.7%, the inter-specific sequence differences among other members of the infraorder Ascaridomorpha were 11.4–18.9%. Phylogenetic analyses based on the maximum likelihood method using the sequences of pcox1 confirmed that all of the Ascaridia isolates were A. galli, and also resolved three distinct clades. Taken together, the findings suggest that A. galli may represent a complex of cryptic species. Our results provide an additional genetic marker for the management of A. galli in chickens and other birds.

Reinforced cables are usually installed on flexible airship structures to enhance their load-bearing capability. However, reinforced cables also increase the total weight of the airship. In order to find a balance between large loading-bear capability and light weight, a multi-objective optimisation scheme based on the genetic algorithm NSGA-II is put forward for the reinforced cable distribution on the airship. Firstly, different cable distribution schemes are presented according to engineering experience and the optimal one is determined by load analysis. Then, the CAE method and optimisation analysis are combined to achieve structure design optimisation. The parametric model of the airship structure with reinforced cables is established by ABAQUS secondary development and the load analysis is carried out. Parameter passing and optimisation algorithm are operated by Isight software and the optimisation analysis is conducted based on the NSGA-II algorithm. Finally, we draw some conclusions of the rules of optimised reinforcing cable distribution. The work of this paper has crucial engineering significance for improving performance of the airship structure design.

The Jueluotage area, which is located in the southern branch of the Eastern Tianshan and northeast of the Tarim Basin, represents a vital locality for investigating intracontinental reactivation induced by the tectonic events at the Eurasian plate margin. This study applies zircon and apatite (U–Th)/He and apatite fission-track thermochronology to the Jueluotage area in the Eastern Tianshan. Our data and thermal history modelling show that the Jueluotage area experienced Triassic–Early Jurassic (˜240–180 Ma) cooling, reflecting the closure of the North Tianshan Ocean and subsequent far-field effects of collision/accretion of the Qiangtang Block and Kunlun terrane. Following this period of fast cooling, a differential exhumation process occurred between the various tectonic belts in the Jueluotage area. The Aqishan–Yamansu belt was exposed at the surface during the Triassic–Early Jurassic cooling phase and experienced subsequent burial, which continued until Early Cretaceous time when a pulse of exhumation occurred. However, the major fault zones (Kanggurtag ductile shear zone and Aqikkuduk Fault) and Central Tianshan arc have remained tectonically stable since Early Jurassic time. No Cenozoic rapid cooling was recorded by the low-temperature thermochronology results in this study, indicating that much of the Jueluotage area was exhumed to the upper crust in the late Mesozoic period.

We discuss some causal estimands that are used to study racial discrimination in policing. A central challenge is that not all police–civilian encounters are recorded in administrative datasets and available to researchers. One possible solution is to consider the average causal effect of race conditional on the civilian already being detained by the police. We find that such an estimand can be quite different from the more familiar ones in causal inference and needs to be interpreted with caution. We propose using an estimand that is new for this context—the causal risk ratio, which has more transparent interpretation and requires weaker identification assumptions. We demonstrate this through a reanalysis of the NYPD Stop-and-Frisk dataset. Our reanalysis shows that the naive estimator that ignores the posttreatment selection in administrative records may severely underestimate the disparity in police violence between minorities and whites in these and similar data.

We investigate the dynamics of cohesive particles in homogeneous isotropic turbulence, based on one-way coupled simulations that include Stokes drag, lubrication, cohesive and direct contact forces. We observe a transient flocculation phase, followed by a statistically steady equilibrium phase. We analyse the temporal evolution of floc size and shape due to aggregation, breakage and deformation. Larger turbulent shear and weaker cohesive forces yield smaller elongated flocs. Flocculation proceeds most rapidly when the fluid and particle time scales are balanced and a suitably defined Stokes number is $O(1)$. During the transient stage, cohesive forces of intermediate strength produce flocs of the largest size, as they are strong enough to cause aggregation, but not so strong as to pull the floc into a compact shape. Small Stokes numbers and weak turbulence delay the onset of the equilibrium stage. During equilibrium, stronger cohesive forces yield flocs of larger size. The equilibrium floc size distribution exhibits a preferred size that depends on the cohesive number. We observe that flocs are generally elongated by turbulent stresses before breakage. Flocs of size close to the Kolmogorov length scale preferentially align themselves with the intermediate strain direction and the vorticity vector. Flocs of smaller size tend to align themselves with the extensional strain direction. More generally, flocs are aligned with the strongest Lagrangian stretching direction. The Kolmogorov scale is seen to limit floc growth. We propose a new flocculation model with a variable fractal dimension that predicts the temporal evolution of the floc size and shape.

2-D junction characterization by dual lens electron holography, scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM), and scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM) on a variety of semiconductor devices is reported, including optical modulators, regular complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) devices, and SiGe hetero-junction bipolar transistors. In most cases these techniques provide comparable results, while in some instances one technique has advantages over the other and vice versa. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.

We present 63 new multi-site radial velocity (RV) measurements of the K1III giant HD 76920, which was recently reported to host the most eccentric planet known to orbit an evolved star. We focused our observational efforts on the time around the predicted periastron passage and achieved near-continuous phase coverage of the corresponding RV peak. By combining our RV measurements from four different instruments with previously published ones, we confirm the highly eccentric nature of the system and find an even higher eccentricity of $e=0.8782 \pm 0.0025$ , an orbital period of $415.891^{+0.043}_{-0.039}\,\textrm{d}$ , and a minimum mass of $3.13^{+0.41}_{-0.43}\,\textrm{M}_{\textrm{J}}$ for the planet. The uncertainties in the orbital elements are greatly reduced, especially for the period and eccentricity. We also performed a detailed spectroscopic analysis to derive atmospheric stellar parameters, and thus the fundamental stellar parameters ( $M_*, R_*, L_*$ ), taking into account the parallax from Gaia DR2, and independently determined the stellar mass and radius using asteroseismology. Intriguingly, at periastron, the planet comes to within 2.4 stellar radii of its host star’s surface. However, we find that the planet is not currently experiencing any significant orbital decay and will not be engulfed by the stellar envelope for at least another 50–80 Myr. Finally, while we calculate a relatively high transit probability of 16%, we did not detect a transit in the TESS photometry.