Agriculture plays a central role in providing food security and essential goods globally. Producers must consider and manage risk to ensure that the production system and its associated individuals are capable of enduring unexpected and disruptive events. Analyzing the different types of risk and accompanying uncertainties that growers experience can be essential to better reflect and understand the realities of their circumstances, but these concepts are not always accounted for in the adoption process. Drawing on the importance of risk and uncertainty, this study aims to assess the different types of risk and uncertainties involved in the risk decision-making process of the processed raspberry industry, where plastic mulch is a new production technique. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants involved in the use, research, outreach, manufacturing, and distribution of plastic mulch, specifically polyethylene (PE) mulch and soil-biodegradable mulch (BDM). Findings indicate that risk can be present in various forms including production, price, and hidden risks, with production and price risks being the most significant to all participants. When accounting for overall risk, PE mulch was considered riskier to industry representatives but less risky to growers and most research and outreach specialists. BDM was considered risky due to the uncertainties about durability, degradability, and the unknown impacts on the environment if BDM fragments do not degrade readily. The application of PE mulch and/or BDM can be beneficial for the raspberry production systems but will require time for additional research and effort to disseminate information to a wider agricultural audience.

MeerTime is a five-year Large Survey Project to time pulsars with MeerKAT, the 64-dish South African precursor to the Square Kilometre Array. The science goals for the programme include timing millisecond pulsar (MSPs) to high precision ( ${<} 1 \unicode{x03BC} \mathrm{s}$ ) to study the Galactic MSP population and to contribute to global efforts to detect nanohertz gravitational waves with the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). In order to plan for the remainder of the programme and to use the allocated time most efficiently, we have conducted an initial census with the MeerKAT ‘L-band’ receiver of 189 MSPs visible to MeerKAT and here present their dispersion measures, polarisation profiles, polarisation fractions, rotation measures, flux density measurements, spectral indices, and timing potential. As all of these observations are taken with the same instrument (which uses coherent dedispersion, interferometric polarisation calibration techniques, and a uniform flux scale), they present an excellent resource for population studies. We used wideband pulse portraits as timing standards for each MSP and demonstrated that the MeerTime Pulsar Timing Array (MPTA) can already contribute significantly to the IPTA as it currently achieves better than $1\,\unicode{x03BC}\mathrm{s}$ timing accuracy on 89 MSPs (observed with fortnightly cadence). By the conclusion of the initial five-year MeerTime programme in 2024 July, the MPTA will be extremely significant in global efforts to detect the gravitational wave background with a contribution to the detection statistic comparable to other long-standing timing programmes.

The Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica contains ice equivalent to 3–4 m of global mean sea level rise and is primarily drained by Cook Glacier. Of concern is that recent observations (since the 1970s) show an acceleration in ice speed over the grounding line of both the Eastern and Western portions of Cook Glacier. Here, we use a numerical ice-flow model (Úa) to simulate the instantaneous effects of observed changes at the terminus of Cook Glacier in order to understand the link between these changes and recently observed ice acceleration. Simulations suggest that the acceleration of Cook West was caused by a retreat in calving-front position in the 1970s, potentially enhanced by grounding-line retreat, while acceleration of Cook East was likely caused by ice-shelf thinning and grounding-line retreat in the mid-1990s. Moreover, we show that the instantaneous ice discharge at Cook East would increase by up to 85% if the whole ice shelf is removed and it ungrounds from a pinning point; and that the discharge at Cook West could increase by ~300% if its grounding line retreated by 10 km.

The weakening and/or removal of floating ice shelves in Antarctica can induce inland ice flow acceleration. Numerical modelling suggests these processes will play an important role in Antarctica's future sea-level contribution, but our understanding of the mechanisms that lead to ice tongue/shelf collapse is incomplete and largely based on observations from the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. Here, we use remote sensing of structural glaciology and ice velocity from 2001 to 2020 and analyse potential ocean-climate forcings to identify mechanisms that triggered the rapid disintegration of ~2445 km2 of ice mélange and part of the Voyeykov Ice Shelf in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica between 27 March and 28 May 2007. Results show disaggregation was pre-conditioned by weakening of the ice tongue's structural integrity and was triggered by mélange removal driven by a regional atmospheric circulation anomaly and a less extensive latent-heat polynya. Disaggregation did not induce inland ice flow acceleration, but our observations highlight an important mechanism through which floating termini can be removed, whereby the break-out of mélange and multiyear landfast sea ice triggers disaggregation of a structurally-weak ice shelf. These observations highlight the need for numerical ice-sheet models to account for interactions between sea-ice, mélange and ice shelves.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

Evolving conditions at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier will be important in determining the rate of its future sea-level contribution over the coming decades. Here, we use remote-sensing observations to investigate recent changes (2000–2018) in the structure and velocity of Thwaites Glacier and its floating tongue. We show that the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier has accelerated by 38% over this period, while its previously intact floating tongue has transitioned to a weaker mélange of fractured icebergs bounded by sea ice. However, the rate of structural weakening and acceleration was not uniform across the observational period and we identify two periods of rapid acceleration and structural weakening (2006–2012; 2016–2018), separated by a period of deceleration and re-advance of the structurally-intact shear margin boundary (2012–2015). The timing of these accelerations/decelerations strongly suggests a link to variable ocean forcing. The weakened tongue now has some dependency on landfast sea ice for structural integrity and is vulnerable to changes in landfast ice persistency. Future reductions in landfast sea ice could manifest from changes in climate and/or the imminent removal of the B-22A iceberg from the Thwaites embayment. Such changes could have important implications for the integrity of the ice tongue and future glacier discharge.

We performed a spatial-temporal analysis to assess household risk factors for Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in a remote, severely-affected village. We defined a household as a family's shared living space and a case-household as a household with at least one resident who became a suspect, probable, or confirmed Ebola case from 1 August 2014 to 10 October 2014. We used Geographic Information System (GIS) software to calculate inter-household distances, performed space-time cluster analyses, and developed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). Village X consisted of 64 households; 42% of households became case-households over the observation period. Two significant space-time clusters occurred among households in the village; temporal effects outweighed spatial effects. GEE demonstrated that the odds of becoming a case-household increased by 4·0% for each additional person per household (P < 0·02) and 2·6% per day (P < 0·07). An increasing number of persons per household, and to a lesser extent, the passage of time after onset of the outbreak were risk factors for household Ebola acquisition, emphasizing the importance of prompt public health interventions that prioritize the most populated households. Using GIS with GEE can reveal complex spatial-temporal risk factors, which can inform prioritization of response activities in future outbreaks.

The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) is a globally complete collection of digital outlines of glaciers, excluding the ice sheets, developed to meet the needs of the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for estimates of past and future mass balance. The RGI was created with limited resources in a short period. Priority was given to completeness of coverage, but a limited, uniform set of attributes is attached to each of the ~198 000 glaciers in its latest version, 3.2. Satellite imagery from 1999–2010 provided most of the outlines. Their total extent is estimated as 726 800 ± 34 000 km2. The uncertainty, about ±5%, is derived from careful single-glacier and basin-scale uncertainty estimates and comparisons with inventories that were not sources for the RGI. The main contributors to uncertainty are probably misinterpretation of seasonal snow cover and debris cover. These errors appear not to be normally distributed, and quantifying them reliably is an unsolved problem. Combined with digital elevation models, the RGI glacier outlines yield hypsometries that can be combined with atmospheric data or model outputs for analysis of the impacts of climatic change on glaciers. The RGI has already proved its value in the generation of significantly improved aggregate estimates of glacier mass changes and total volume, and thus actual and potential contributions to sea-level rise.

The Rank Forum on Vitamin D was held on 2nd and 3rd July 2009 at the University of Surrey, Guildford, UK. The workshop consisted of a series of scene-setting presentations to address the current issues and challenges concerning vitamin D and health, and included an open discussion focusing on the identification of the concentrations of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) (a marker of vitamin D status) that may be regarded as optimal, and the implications this process may have in the setting of future dietary reference values for vitamin D in the UK. The Forum was in agreement with the fact that it is desirable for all of the population to have a serum 25(OH)D concentration above 25 nmol/l, but it discussed some uncertainty about the strength of evidence for the need to aim for substantially higher concentrations (25(OH)D concentrations>75 nmol/l). Any discussion of ‘optimal’ concentration of serum 25(OH)D needs to define ‘optimal’ with care since it is important to consider the normal distribution of requirements and the vitamin D needs for a wide range of outcomes. Current UK reference values concentrate on the requirements of particular subgroups of the population; this differs from the approaches used in other European countries where a wider range of age groups tend to be covered. With the re-emergence of rickets and the public health burden of low vitamin D status being already apparent, there is a need for urgent action from policy makers and risk managers. The Forum highlighted concerns regarding the failure of implementation of existing strategies in the UK for achieving current vitamin D recommendations.

We discuss the necessity of conscious thinking in the single-system propositional model of learning. Research from honeybees to humans suggests that associative learning can take place without the need for controlled reasoning or the development of beliefs of relationships between objects or events. We conclude that a single learning system is possible, but not if it depends on complex thinking.

We consider the phase-locked solutions of the differential equation governing planar motion of a weakly damped pendulum forced by a prescribed, vertical acceleration εg sin ωt of its pivot, where ω and t are dimensionless, and the unit of time is the reciprocal of the natural frequency. Resonance curves and stability boundaries are presented for downward and inverted oscillations of periods T, 2T, 4T, …, where T (≡ 2π/ω) is the forcing period. Stable, downward oscillations are found to occur in distinct regions of the (ω, ε) plane, reminiscent of the regions of stability of the Mathieu equation (which describes the equivalent undamped, parametrically excited pendulum motion). The regions are dominated by oscillations of frequencies , each region being bounded on one side by a vertical state at rest in stable equilibrium and on the other side by a symmetry-breaking, period-doubling sequence to chaotic motion. Stable, inverted oscillations are found to occur also in distinct regions of the (ω, ε) plane, the principal oscillation in each region being symmetric with period 2T.

Coplanar forced oscillations of a mechanical system such as a seismometer or a fluid in a tank are modelled by the coplanar motion of periodically forced, weakly damped pendulum. We consider the phase-locked solutions of the differential equation governing planar motion of a weakly damped pendulum driven by a periodic torque. Sinusoidal approximations previously obtained for downward and inverted oscillations at small values of the dimensionless driving amplitude ε are continued into numerical solutions at larger values of ε. Resonance curves and stability boundaries are presented for downward and inverted oscillations of periods T, 2T, and 4T, where T(≡ 2π/ω) is the dimensionless forcing period. The symmetry-breaking, period-doubling sequences of oscillatory motion are found to occur in bands on the (ω, ε) plane, with the amplitudes of stable oscillations in one band differing by multiples of about π from those in the other bands, a structure similar to that of energy levels in wave mechanics. The sinusoidal approximations for symmetric T-periodic oscillations prove to be surprisingly accurate at the larger values of ε, the banded structure being related to the periodicity of the J0 Bessel function.

We consider the phase-locked solutions of the differential equation governing planar motion of a weakly damped pendulum driven by horizontal, periodic forcing of the pivot with maximum acceleration εg and dimensionless frequency ω. Analytical solutions for symmetric oscillations at smaller values of ε are continued into numerical solutions at larger values of ε. A wide range of stable oscillatory solutions is described, including motion that is symmetric or asymmetric, downward or inverted, and at periods equal to the forcing period T ≡ 2π/ω or integral multiples thereof. Stable running oscillations with mean angular velocity pω/q, where p and q are integers, are investigated also. Stability boundaries are calculated for swinging oscillations of period T, 2T and 4T; 3T and 6T; and for running oscillations with mean angular velocity ω. The period-doubling cascades typically culminate in nearly periodic motion followed by chaotic motion or some independent periodic motion.

The natural frequencies and damping ratios for surface waves in a circular cylinder are calculated on the assumptions of a fixed contact line, Stokes boundary layers, and either a clean or a fully contaminated surface. These theoretical predictions are compared with the measurements for the first six modes in a brimfull, sharp-edged cylinder of radius 2.77 cm and depth 3.80 cm. The differences between the predicted and observed frequencies were less than 0.5% for all but the fundamental axisymmetric mode with a clean surface. The difference between the predicted and observed damping ratio for the dominant mode with a clean surface was 20%; this difference was significantly larger for the higher modes with a clean surface and for all of the modes with a contaminated surface.

An earlier treatment of the diffraction of a shock wave advancing into a region of uniform flow, based on Chisnell's (1965) extension of Whitham's (1957) rule for shock diffraction, is corrected for an algebraic error and then compared with an analogous treatment based on the more recent extension derived by Whitham (1968). The basis for comparison is the pressure just behind a shock wave that is diffracted by a thin wedge travelling at supersonic speed. The approximation provided by Whitham's extension is both simpler than, and typically superior to, that provided by Chisnell's extension (although the numerical differences are small in the Mach-number régime considered).

The previously established criterion for the stability of a vortex sheet with respect to two-dimensional disturbances in a compressible fluid is extended to three-dimensional disturbances, and it is shown that disturbances travelling at sufficiently oblique angles with respect to the undisturbed flow are unstable. Slip-line instability downstream of a Mach reflexion is discussed briefly.

Protozoan parasites of the Leishmania donovani complex (L. donovani, L. infantum/L. chagasi) are causative agents of visceral leishmaniasis. To understand phylogeny and taxonomy within this group better we have developed 2 new polymerase chain reaction-linked restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR–RFLP) analyses of the major surface protease (msp or gp63) intergenic (ITG) regions. We have named this approach msp intergenic region RFLP typing (MIRT). One intergenic region lies between the constitutive msp (mspC) and stationary phase msp (mspS4) genes (ITG/CS) and the other between multicopy logarithmic phase msp (mspL) genes (ITG/L). The markers generated robust and congruent phylogenies, identifying 5 genetic clusters within L. donovani. One cluster was synonymous with L. infantum (L. chagasi); clusters strongly correlated with isoenzyme typing and some with geographical origin. These genetic groups may be important for epidemiological and clinical studies. The congruence of the groups identified indicates suitability of these genomic targets for taxonomic studies. Furthermore, subgroups of L. donovani were of equivalent phylogenetic status to L. infantum. No evidence was found to support the existence of L. archibaldi. It is likely to be necessary in future to re-evaluate the taxonomic status of L. donovani or of L. infantum, as discrete species.