Baroclinic critical levels arise as singularities in the inviscid linear theory of waves propagating through a stratified, horizontally directed and sheared flow. For a steady wave forcing, disturbances grow secularly over the critical layers surrounding these levels, generating a jet-like defect in the mean flow. We use a matched asymptotic expansion to furnish a reduced model of the nonlinear dynamics of such defects. By solving the linear initial-value problem for small perturbations to the defect, we establish that secondary instabilities appear at later times. Because the defect is time dependent, conventional normal-mode analysis is quantitatively inaccurate, but does successfully predict the occurrence of the secondary instability. The instability has a singular character in that disturbances with the shortest horizontal wavelength grow most vigorously at late times, unless dissipation is included. The instability can be suppressed by weak viscosity; by itself, thermal dissipation delays, but does not arrest instability. Numerical computations with the dissipative reduced model demonstrate that the secondary instability saturates as the defect rolls up into a coherent vortical structure. This structure excites a new wave propagating at a different phase speed, thereby forcing a new set of baroclinic critical levels. The implications for self-replication are discussed.

Dry wind-tunnel (DWT) flutter test systems model the unsteady distributed aerodynamic force using various electromagnetic exciters. They can be used to test the aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic stability of smart aircraft or high-speed flight vehicles. A new parameterised modelling method at the full system level based on the generalised force equivalence for DWT flutter systems is proposed herein. The full system model includes the structural dynamic model, electromechanical coupling model and fast aerodynamic computation model. An optimisation search method is applied to determine the best locations for measurement and excitation by introducing Fisher’s information matrix. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed system-level numerical DWT modelling method have been validated for a plate aeroelastic model with four exciters/transducers. The effects of key parameters including the number of exciters, the control time delay, the noise interference and the electrical parameters of the electromagnetic exciter model have also been investigated. The numerical and experimental results indicate that the proposed modelling method achieves good accuracy (with deviations of less than 1.5% from simulations and 4.5% from experimental test results for the flutter speed) and robust performance even in uncertain environments with a 10% noise level.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) led to a significant disease burden and disruptions in health systems. We describe the epidemiology and transmission characteristics of early coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Bavaria, Germany. Cases were reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections, reported from 20 January−19 March 2020. The incubation period was estimated using travel history and date of symptom onset. To estimate the serial interval, we identified pairs of index and secondary cases. By 19 March, 3546 cases were reported. A large proportion was exposed abroad (38%), causing further local transmission. Median incubation period of 256 cases with exposure abroad was 3.8 days (95%CI: 3.5–4.2). For 95% of infected individuals, symptom onset occurred within 10.3 days (95%CI: 9.1–11.8) after exposure. The median serial interval, using 53 pairs, was 3.5 days (95%CI: 3.0–4.2; mean: 3.9, s.d.: 2.2). Travellers returning to Germany had an important influence on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Bavaria in early 2020. Especially in times of low incidence, public health agencies should identify holiday destinations, and areas with ongoing local transmission, to monitor potential importation of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Travellers returning from areas with ongoing community transmission should be advised to quarantine to prevent re-introductions of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Screening the effect of thousands of non-coding genetic variants will help identify variants important in the etiology of diseases OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Massively parallel reporter assays (MPRAs) can experimentally evaluate the impact of genetic variants on gene expression. In this study, our objective was to systematically evaluate the functional activity of 3’-UTR SNPs associated with neurological disorders and use those results to help understand their contributions to disease etiology. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: To choose variants to evaluate with the MPRA, we first gathered SNPs from the GWAS Catalog that were associated with any neurological disorder trait with p-value < 10-5. For each SNP, we identified the region that was in linkage disequilibrium (r2 > 0.8) and retrieved all the common 3’-UTR SNPs (allele-frequency > 0.05) within that region. We used an MPRA to measure the impact of these 3’-UTR variants in SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells and a microglial cell line. These results were then used to train a deep-learning model to predict the impact of variants and identify features that contribute to the predictions. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Of the 13,515 3’-UTR SNPs tested, 400 and 657 significantly impacted gene expression in SH-SY5Y and microglia, respectively. Of the 84 SNPs significantly impacted in both cells, the direction of impact was the same in 81. The direction of eQTL in GTEx tissues agreed with the assay SNP effect in SH-SY5Y cells but not microglial cells. The deep-learning model predicted sequence activity level correlated with the experimental activity level (Spearman’s corr = 0.45). The deep-learning model identified several predictive motifs similar to motifs of RNA-binding proteins. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: This study demonstrates that MPRAs can be used to evaluate the effect of non-coding variants, and the results can be used to train a machine learning model and interpret its predictions. Together, these can help identify causal variants and further understand the etiology of diseases.

Diverse and abundant fossil taxa have been described in the lower Cambrian Shipai Formation in the Three Gorges area of Hubei Province, South China, but the taxonomy and diversity of the co-occurring brachiopod fauna are still far from clear. Here we describe the brachiopod fauna recovered from the Shipai Formation in the Three Gorges area of South China, including representatives of the subphylum Linguliformea: linguloids (Lingulellotreta ergalievi, Eoobolus malongensis, and Neobolidae gen. indet. sp. indet.), and an acrotretoid (Linnarssonia sapushanensis); and representatives from the subphylum Rhynchonelliformea: the calcareous-shelled Kutorginates (Kutorgina sinensis, Kutorgina sp., and Nisusia liantuoensis). This brachiopod assemblage and the first occurrence of Linnarssonia sapushanensis shell beds permit correlation of the Shipai Formation in the Three Gorges area of Hubei Province with the Stage 4 Wulongqing Formation in the Wuding area of eastern Yunnan. This correlation is further strengthened by the first appearance datum (FAD) of the rhynchonelliform brachiopod Nisusia in the upper silty mudstone of both the Shipai and Wulongqing formations. The new well-preserved material, derived from siliciclastic rocks, also gives critical new insights into the fine shell structure of L. sapushanensis. Microstructural studies on micromorphic acrotretoids (like Linnarssonia) have previously been restricted to fossils that were acid-etched from limestones. This is the first study to carry out detailed comparative ultrastructural studies on acrotretoid shells preserved in siliciclastic rocks. This work reveals a hollow tube and solid column microstructure in the acrotretoid shells from the Shipai Formation, which is likely to be equivalent of traditional column and central canal observed in shells dissolved from limestones.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.

Carotenoids are increasingly being implicated to have an important role in brain and eye development. This study aimed to quantify the content and profile of carotenoids in human breast milk, maternal plasma and neonatal umbilical cord plasma in Chengdu, an urban area in Southwest China. In this study, fifty-four healthy mothers were enrolled. Maternal blood, umbilical cord blood, colostrum, transitional milk and mature milk were collected. Concentrations of carotenoids (lutein, zeaxanthin, β-cryptoxanthin, β-carotene and lycopene) were analysed by HPLC. We found that carotenoid concentrations decreased from colostrum to mature milk. Hydrocarbon carotenoids with weaker polarity decreased more than the polar carotenoids. Lycopene concentrations dropped by 99 %, β-carotene by 92 %, β-cryptoxanthin by 83 %, lutein by 32 % and zeaxanthin by 22 %. Lycopene and β-carotene accounted for 70 % of the total carotenoids in colostrum, and lutein predominated amongst carotenoids in transitional milk and mature milk (51–55 %). Carotenoid concentrations in maternal plasma were much higher than that in cord plasma. Lutein predominated in cord plasma. The concentrations of all carotenoids in maternal plasma were correlated with those of cord plasma and human milk. These results are consistent with selective transport mechanisms in the mammary gland related to the polarity of carotenoids, and each carotenoid has its own implications, which may have different priorities in the early life development of infants. These findings may help guide dietary recommendations for carotenoid inclusion in infant formulas.

Previous studies have revealed associations of meteorological factors with tuberculosis (TB) cases. However, few studies have examined their lag effects on TB cases. This study was aimed to analyse nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on the number of TB notifications in Hong Kong. Using a 22-year consecutive surveillance data in Hong Kong, we examined the association of monthly average temperature and relative humidity with temporal dynamics of the monthly number of TB notifications using a distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a Poisson regression. The relative risks (RRs) of TB notifications were >1.15 as monthly average temperatures were between 16.3 and 17.3 °C at lagged 13–15 months, reaching the peak risk of 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.35) when it was 16.8 °C at lagged 14 months. The RRs of TB notifications were >1.05 as relative humidities of 60.0–63.6% at lagged 9–11 months expanded to 68.0–71.0% at lagged 12–17 months, reaching the highest risk of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.11) when it was 69.0% at lagged 13 months. The nonlinear and delayed effects of average temperature and relative humidity on TB epidemic were identified, which may provide a practical reference for improving the TB warning system.

Although testing is widely regarded as critical to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, what measure and level of testing best reflects successful infection control remains unresolved. Our aim was to compare the sensitivity of two testing metrics – population testing number and testing coverage – to population mortality outcomes and identify a benchmark for testing adequacy. We aggregated publicly available data through 12 April on testing and outcomes related to COVID-19 across 36 OECD (Organization for Economic Development) countries and Taiwan. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the aforementioned metrics and following outcome measures: deaths per 1 million people, case fatality rate and case proportion of critical illness. Fractional polynomials were used to generate scatter plots to model the relationship between the testing metrics and outcomes. We found that testing coverage, but not population testing number, was highly correlated with population mortality (rs = −0.79, P = 5.975 × 10−9 vs. rs = −0.3, P = 0.05) and case fatality rate (rs = −0.67, P = 9.067 × 10−6 vs. rs = −0.21, P = 0.20). A testing coverage threshold of 15–45 signified adequate testing: below 15, testing coverage was associated with exponentially increasing population mortality; above 45, increased testing did not yield significant incremental mortality benefit. Taken together, testing coverage was better than population testing number in explaining country performance and can serve as an early and sensitive indicator of testing adequacy and disease burden.

Major progress has recently been made regarding the biostratigraphy, lithostratigraphy and isotope chemostratigraphy of the lower Cambrian successions in South Australia, in particular of the Arrowie Basin, which has facilitated robust global stratigraphic correlations. However, lack of faunal and sedimentological data from the lower Cambrian Normanville Group in the eastern Stansbury Basin, South Australia – particularly the transition from the Fork Tree Limestone to the Heatherdale Shale – has prevented resolution of the age range, lithofacies, depositional environments and regional correlation of this succession. Here we present detailed sedimentologic, biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic data through this transition in the eastern Stansbury Basin. Three lithofacies are identified that indicate a deepening depositional environment ranging from inner-mid-shelf (Lithofacies A and B) to outer shelf (Lithofacies C). New δ13C chemostratigraphic data capture global positive excursion III within the lower Heatherdale Shale. Recovered bradoriid Sinskolutella cuspidata supports an upper Stage 2 (Micrina etheridgei Zone). The combined geochemistry and palaeontology data reveal that the lower Heatherdale Shale is older than previously appreciated. This integrated study improves regional chronostratigraphic resolution and interbasinal correlation, and better constrains the depositional setting of this important lower Cambrian package from the eastern Stansbury Basin, South Australia.

An acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreak caused by a norovirus occurred at a hospital in Shanghai, China, was studied for molecular epidemiology, host susceptibility and serological roles. Rectal and environmental swabs, paired serum samples and saliva specimens were collected. Pathogens were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing. Histo-blood group antigens (HBGA) phenotypes of saliva samples and their binding to norovirus protruding proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The HBGA-binding interfaces and the surrounding region were analysed by the MegAlign program of DNAstar 7.1. Twenty-seven individuals in two care units were attacked with AGE at attack rates of 9.02 and 11.68%. Eighteen (78.2%) symptomatic and five (38.4%) asymptomatic individuals were GII.6/b norovirus positive. Saliva-based HBGA phenotyping showed that all symptomatic and asymptomatic cases belonged to A, B, AB or O secretors. Only four (16.7%) out of the 24 tested serum samples showed low blockade activity against HBGA-norovirus binding at the acute phase, whereas 11 (45.8%) samples at the convalescence stage showed seroconversion of such blockade. Specific blockade antibody in the population played an essential role in this norovirus epidemic. A wide HBGA-binding spectrum of GII.6 supports a need for continuous health attention and surveillance in different settings.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a temperate climate winter season but little data are available from tropical countries with year-round influenza virus activity. In Singapore, a retrospective cohort study of adults vaccinated from 2013 to 2017 was conducted. Influenza vaccine failure was defined as hospital admission with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza infection 2–49 weeks after vaccination. Relative VE was calculated by splitting the follow-up period into 8-week episodes (Lexis expansion) and the odds of influenza infection in the first 8-week period after vaccination (weeks 2–9) compared with subsequent 8-week periods using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for patient factors and influenza virus activity. Records of 19 298 influenza vaccinations were analysed with 617 (3.2%) influenza infections. Relative VE was stable for the first 26 weeks post-vaccination, but then declined for all three influenza types/subtypes to 69% at weeks 42–49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 52–92%, P = 0.011). VE declined fastest in older adults, in individuals with chronic pulmonary disease and in those who had been previously vaccinated within the last 2 years. Vaccine failure was significantly associated with a change in recommended vaccine strains between vaccination and observation period (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% CI 1.06–1.50, P = 0.010).