Ethnohistoric accounts indicate that the people of Australia's Channel Country engaged in activities rarely recorded elsewhere on the continent, including food storage, aquaculture and possible cultivation, yet there has been little archaeological fieldwork to verify these accounts. Here, the authors report on a collaborative research project initiated by the Mithaka people addressing this lack of archaeological investigation. The results show that Mithaka Country has a substantial and diverse archaeological record, including numerous large stone quarries, multiple ritual structures and substantial dwellings. Our archaeological research revealed unknown aspects, such as the scale of Mithaka quarrying, which could stimulate re-evaluation of Aboriginal socio-economic systems in parts of ancient Australia.

Impulsive and compulsive problem behaviours are associated with a variety of mental disorders. Latent phenotyping indicates the expression of impulsive and compulsive problem behaviours is predominantly governed by a transdiagnostic ‘disinhibition’ phenotype. In a cohort of 117 individuals, recruited as part of the Neuroscience in Psychiatry Network (NSPN), we examined how brain functional connectome and network properties relate to disinhibition. Reduced functional connectivity within a subnetwork of frontal (especially right inferior frontal gyrus), occipital and parietal regions was linked to disinhibition. Findings provide insights into neurobiological pathways underlying the emergence of impulsive and compulsive disorders.

The Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) is the first large-area survey to be conducted with the full 36-antenna Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. RACS will provide a shallow model of the ASKAP sky that will aid the calibration of future deep ASKAP surveys. RACS will cover the whole sky visible from the ASKAP site in Western Australia and will cover the full ASKAP band of 700–1800 MHz. The RACS images are generally deeper than the existing NRAO VLA Sky Survey and Sydney University Molonglo Sky Survey radio surveys and have better spatial resolution. All RACS survey products will be public, including radio images (with $\sim$ 15 arcsec resolution) and catalogues of about three million source components with spectral index and polarisation information. In this paper, we present a description of the RACS survey and the first data release of 903 images covering the sky south of declination $+41^\circ$ made over a 288-MHz band centred at 887.5 MHz.

New δ13Ccarb and microfacies data from Hereford–Worcestershire and the West Midlands allow for a detailed examination of variations in the Homerian carbon isotope excursion (Silurian) and depositional environment within the Much Wenlock Limestone Formation of the Midland Platform (Avalonia), UK. These comparisons have been aided by a detailed sequence-stratigraphic and bentonite correlation framework. Microfacies analysis has identified regional differences in relative sea-level change and indicates an overall shallowing of the carbonate platform interior from Hereford–Worcestershire to the West Midlands. Based upon the maximum δ13Ccarb values for the lower and upper peaks of the Homerian carbon isotope excursion (CIE), the shallower depositional setting of the West Midlands is associated with values that are 0.7 ‰ and 0.8 ‰ higher than in Hereford–Worcestershire. At the scale of parasequences the effect of depositional environment upon δ13Ccarb values can also be observed, with a conspicuous offset in the position of the trough in δ13Ccarb values between the peaks of the Homerian CIE. This offset can be accounted for by differences in relative sea-level change and carbonate production rates. While such differences complicate the use of CIEs as a means of high-resolution correlation, and caution against correlations based purely upon the isotopic signature, it is clear that a careful analysis of the depositional environment can account for such differences and thereby improve the use of carbon isotopic curves as a means of correlation.

EMU is a wide-field radio continuum survey planned for the new Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope. The primary goal of EMU is to make a deep (rms ∼ 10 μJy/beam) radio continuum survey of the entire Southern sky at 1.3 GHz, extending as far North as +30° declination, with a resolution of 10 arcsec. EMU is expected to detect and catalogue about 70 million galaxies, including typical star-forming galaxies up to z ∼ 1, powerful starbursts to even greater redshifts, and active galactic nuclei to the edge of the visible Universe. It will undoubtedly discover new classes of object. This paper defines the science goals and parameters of the survey, and describes the development of techniques necessary to maximise the science return from EMU.

At the global level, GDP growth accelerated to 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 according to NIESR estimates — largely driven by a sharp rise in domestic demand in China, which more than offset a slowdown in world trade growth that originated in the US. The economic recovery in the advanced economies remains lacklustre. The sharp rise in the oil price in recent months has exacerbated the effects on output of the protracted downturn in global investment and a tighter fiscal policy stance, at least in Europe. High commodity prices will push inflation in the OECD close to 3 per cent both this year and next. At the global level we expect GDP growth to moderate from an estimated 5.2 per cent in 2010 to just below 4½ per cent per annum in 2011–12, with around half of this slowdown attributable to the effects of the increase in oil prices between October 2010 and April 2011. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.

The headline figure for US GDP growth in the final quarter of 2010 was perhaps slightly higher than expected given the slowdown in Europe and Japan, at an annualised rate of 3.1 per cent. But a closer look at the components of GDP reveals an underlying weakness in the US economy. Domestic demand stagnated in the final quarter of 2010, and the strong rise in GDP is entirely attributable to a 12.6 per cent (annualised) contraction in import volumes. The slowdowns in Europe and Japan should be seen as at least partly attributable to this loss of demand from the US, which remains the world's largest importer of goods and services, accounting for about 12½ per cent of world trade (see Appendix figure B3). Available information for the first quarter of 2011 suggests that consumer spending growth moderated to about 1½ per cent at an annualised rate, and we expect GDP growth in the US to average about 2½ per cent per annum this year and next.

Short-tem inflationary pressures have risen on a global scale in recent months and, given the source of the impulse is commodity markets, this dampens the prospects for growth in 2011 in most countries. Global food prices have been under pressure since July 2010, reflecting poor harvests in many parts of the world. Metals prices have also risen rapidly, while non-food agricultural price inflation accelerated towards the end of the year. We expect average food and other agricultural prices in 2011 to be more than 25 per cent higher than they were in 2010, while metals prices are expected to be more than 30 per cent above last year's average level, as shown in figure 1. The price of oil exhibited moderate inflation through September 2010, but rose sharply in the final quarter of the year. The rise in the price of oil may be a reflection of demand pressures from countries such as China and India, as well as the recovery in demand from advanced economies, while the weakness of the US dollar and an expected tightening of regulation following recent oil spills may also be adding to price pressures. The price of Brent crude currently stands at over $98 per barrel, roughly $19 per barrel higher than was priced into futures markets three months ago. Barrell, Delannoy and Holland discuss the macroeconomic implications of the recent rise in the oil price elsewhere in this Review. If sustained we expect this to reduce growth in the OECD by about ½ per cent this year. The impact on oil-intensive emerging economies such as China and India may be slightly greater, while oil exporters gain from the high price.

The pace of global expansion moderated somewhat in the second quarter of 2010. According to NIESR estimates, world GDP increased by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of the year and growth slowed to 1 per cent in the second quarter. The slowdown was widespread across Asia and America. Many of the lagging economies in Europe, on the other hand, accelerated in the second quarter of 2010, allowing some convergence in the global recovery. The slowdown in Asia and America was largely a reflection of a shift in the global balance of trade. Domestic demand growth in both the US and China accelerated in the second quarter, pulling in higher levels of imports and drawing with it an export-driven recovery in Europe. We forecast global growth of 4.9 per cent this year and 4½ per cent in 2011.

Global output has been rising at an annualised rate of 4¼–5½ per cent per quarter since the rebound in the second quarter of 2009. We estimate that global GDP increased at an annualised rate of 4.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2010, and forecast world growth of 5 per cent in 2010 as a whole. Asia continues to drive the global recovery, with exceptionally strong growth in China, India, Taiwan and Korea in the first quarter of the year. Japan and Hong Kong also recorded strong growth, partially closing the output gaps in these economies. In the Americas, Canada and especially Brazil expanded rapidly, with more moderate growth in the US. Europe, on the other hand, continues to lag behind Asia and the Americas, with output in the EU as a whole rising at an annualised rate of just 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2010. Within Europe, output rose more rapidly than anticipated in Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, and to a lesser extent in Italy. But only in Sweden did this reflect a recovery in domestic demand, as the recovery in most of Europe has so far relied on external demand.

Global output declined by 1 per cent in 2009, but the pace of recovery has been relatively rapid, especially in economies outside the OECD. We estimate that the level of global GDP regained its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter of 2010 (see figure A3 in the Appendix). The volume of world trade in goods and services remained some 6 per cent below its pre-crisis peak in the first quarter, but has rebounded by nearly 10 per cent since the trough reached in the second quarter of 2009 (see figure A2 in the Appendix). China remains a vital source of global demand. GDP increased by 11.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2010, while imports of goods in US$ terms rose by more than 60 per cent over the same period. India also bears little scarring from the global crisis and the economy expanded rapidly throughout 2009. Other Asian economies, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea, have also recovered rapidly from the global recession, expanding by 6.3, 3.3 and 4.5 per cent, respectively, in the second half of 2009. Outside of Asia, Brazil and Mexico have seen a strong rebound in growth, although the level of output in Mexico remains well below its pre-crisis peak.

The second quarter of 2009 marked the end of the global recession, and we estimate that global GDP increased by 1 per cent. However, the revival reflected growth in only a handful of economies, and was driven by a rise in domestic demand in an even smaller collection of countries. Government spending in mainland China, as well as Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, was the driving force behind the rebound in global GDP. The recovery broadened to the majority of economies in the third quarter of last year, with particularly strong growth in Mexico, Brazil, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia, as well as the Asian economies. Output continued to fall in the UK, Spain, Greece and several of the EU's new member states in the third quarter of 2009. Supported by highly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, a sharp turn in the inventory cycle and external demand from Asia, the recovery has not yet spread to investment and consumer spending in many countries.

The lack of adequate banking regulation by supervisors and flawed assessment of risk by financial institutions over the past several years has proved extremely costly. We estimate that the level of global output declined by a cumulative 2.4 per cent between the onset of the crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the first quarter of 2009, with a decline of 4 per cent in the OECD economies over the same period. This is equivalent to a loss of roughly $850 billion relative to what was then considered potential output. We estimate that government debt levels in the OECD economies have risen by about 25 per cent in aggregate, entailing many years of higher tax burdens to come, a rise in long-term real interest rates and lower levels of income-generating wealth. The level of employment in the OECD economies declined by 2.2 per cent between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009, and we expect a further 2.5 million people will lose their jobs in the OECD economies by early 2010. While we expect growth to resume by the end of this year in most countries, the level of output in the OECD will remain permanently lower than was expected fifteen months ago. The degree of scarring in individual economies depends on the extent to which lenders underestimated risk before the crisis and the recent rise in the economy's government debt burden. This is discussed in greater detail in a note on pp. 36–8.

World GDP is expected to record a decline of 1.5 per cent this year, the first global decline in annual output since 1946. While this marks the deepest global recession since the Second World War, there are now signs that the crisis in the global banking system has eased. Supported by policy initiatives in economies throughout the world, there has been significant progress in restoring solvency to the global financial system, and lending conditions have started to improve modestly in many countries. While this has minimal impact on the prospects for growth this year, we see the recovery setting in earlier than expected three months ago as a result of the recent decline in global risk premia, with growth returning to most countries by early 2010. The recovery may be somewhat slower in countries such as Spain and Ireland, where housing market corrections will continue to weigh on the economy, while we expect a relatively rapid rebound in many Asian economies as rates of destocking decline and, as a result, world trade recovers from the recent slump. However, the financial crisis will leave permanent scars in most major economies, as lenders are expected to require higher risk premia than the low levels seen from 2003–7, so that the level of potential output will be permanently lower than forecast before the crisis. The magnitude of scarring will vary across countries, depending on the extent to which lenders underestimated risk before the crisis.

The global financial crisis has been compounded by an exceptionally sharp drop in world trade, and we are now facing the most widespread global recession in over sixty years. World GDP is expected to record an annual decline this year for the first time since 1946. As the economic crisis has developed, policymakers have stepped in across the globe to help stabilise the world economy. In the absence of fiscal and monetary easing initiated since 2008, world output would have been expected to decline by 1.7 per cent this year, compared to our current forecast decline of 0.5 per cent. However, while policy actions in the banking sector were sufficient to stabilise what appeared to be the imminent collapse of the global financial system last October, there is little concrete evidence that policy initiatives have successfully started to ease lending conditions. The key risks to our forecast hinge on the speed with which financing conditions normalise, the speed with which world trade reverts to equilibrium and the path of inventories.