We propose a novel conditional quantile prediction method based on complete subset averaging (CSA) for quantile regressions. All models under consideration are potentially misspecified, and the dimension of regressors goes to infinity as the sample size increases. Since we average over the complete subsets, the number of models is much larger than the usual model averaging method which adopts sophisticated weighting schemes. We propose to use an equal weight but select the proper size of the complete subset based on the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Building upon the theory of Lu and Su (2015, Journal of Econometrics 188, 40–58), we investigate the large sample properties of CSA and show the asymptotic optimality in the sense of Li (1987, Annals of Statistics 15, 958–975) We check the finite sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications.

Epidemic intelligence activities are undertaken by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to support member states in early detection and response to outbreaks to prevent the international spread of diseases. We reviewed epidemic intelligence activities conducted by the organisation from 2017 to 2020, processes used, key results and how lessons learned can be used to strengthen preparedness, early detection and rapid response to outbreaks that may constitute a public health event of international concern. A total of 415 outbreaks were detected and notified to WHO, using both indicator-based and event-based surveillance. Media monitoring contributed to the initial detection of a quarter of all events reported. The most frequent outbreaks detected were vaccine-preventable diseases, followed by food-and-water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and viral haemorrhagic fevers. Rapid risk assessments generated evidence and provided the basis for WHO to trigger operational processes to provide rapid support to member states to respond to outbreaks with a potential for international spread. This is crucial in assisting member states in their obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Member states in the region require scaled-up support, particularly in preventing recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases and enhancing their event-based surveillance capacities with automated tools and processes.

Townsend's attached-eddy hypothesis (AEH) provides a theoretical description of turbulence statistics in the logarithmic region in terms of coherent motions that are self-similar with the wall-normal distance ($y$). This hypothesis was further extended by Perry and coworkers who proposed attached-eddy models that predict the coexistence of the logarithmic law in the mean velocity and streamwise turbulence intensity as well as spectral scaling for the streamwise energy spectra. The AEH can be used to predict the statistical behaviours of wall turbulence, yet revealing such behaviours has remained an elusive task because the proposed description is established within the limits of asymptotically high Reynolds numbers. Here, we show the self-similar behaviour of turbulence motions contained within wall-attached structures of streamwise velocity fluctuations using the direct numerical simulation dataset of turbulent boundary layer, channel, and pipe flows ($Re_{\tau } \approx 1000$). The physical sizes of the identified structures are geometrically self-similar in terms of height, and the associated turbulence intensity follows the logarithmic variation in all three flows. Moreover, the corresponding two-dimensional energy spectra are aligned along a linear relationship between the streamwise and spanwise wavelengths ($\lambda _x$ and $\lambda _z$, respectively) in the large-scale range ($12y < \lambda _x <3\text{--}4\delta$), which is reminiscent of self-similarity. Consequently, one-dimensional spectra obtained by integrating the two-dimensional spectra over the self-similar range show some evidence for self-similar scaling $\lambda _x \sim \lambda _z$ and the possible existence of $k_x^{-1}$ and $k_z^{-1}$ scaling regions in a similar subrange. The present results reveal that the asymptotic behaviours can be obtained by identifying the self-similar coherent structures in canonical wall turbulence, albeit in low-Reynolds-number flows.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: To determine the prevalence of myocardial diastolic dysfunction (DD) and association of serum concentration of the cardiac biomarker serum soluble ST2 in HIV-infected as compared to uninfected Tanzanian adults at the time of HIV diagnosis. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In this cross-sectional study we consecutively enrolled HIV-infected participants and uninfected controls at a large, referral HIV clinic in Mwanza, Tanzania. Standardized history, physical examination, echocardiography and serum samples were obtained. The primary outcome was prevalence of myocardial diastolic dysfunction in HIV-infected as compared to uninfected adults. The secondary outcome was the association of baseline serum sST2 concentration with diastolic dysfunction prevalence. Regression models were used to quantify the associations. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We enrolled 388 HIV-infected, ART naïve and 461 HIV-uninfected controls. Participants with HIV had a higher prevalence of DD (OR = 2.44, p = 0.001, controlled for age, sex, hypertension and BMI) and more severe dysfunction (66.7% vs 42.5%, p = 0.056) at an earlier age. Baseline serum sST2 concentration was significantly associated with DD in HIV-infected but not uninfected participants (p = 0.04 and 0.90, respectively). More HIV-infected adults with concurrent DD exceeded the threshold of 35ng/mL as compared to controls (15.7% vs 5.3%, p<0.0001). Additionally, a significant population level shift to higher sST2 concentration was observed in HIV-infected adults with dysfunction as compared to both HIV-infected without and HIV-uninfected adults with dysfunction (Kolmogrov-Smirnov test: p = 0.02 and 0.04). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: In a large population of HIV-infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV infection is associated with myocardial diastolic dysfunction. This dysfunction is associated with higher sST2 concentrations. Therefore, we conclude that the sST2 pathway may provide insight into the pathophysiologic mechanisms of dysfunction in HIV-infected adults.

We examine the origin of very-large-scale motions (VLSMs) in fully developed turbulent pipe flow at friction Reynolds number, $\mathit{Re}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}}=934$, using data from a direct numerical simulation. The VLSMs and the packet-like large-scale motions (LSMs) found in this study are very similar to those found in earlier studies. Three-dimensional time-evolving instantaneous fields show that one component of the process leading to the large streamwise length of VLSMs is the concatenation of adjacent streamwise LSMs caused by the continuous elongation of LSMs due to the strain component of the mean shear. Spatial organization patterns of the VLSMs and LSMs and their properties are studied by separating auto-correlation of the streamwise velocity fluctuations into the components of the VLSM and the LSM defined by low-pass/high-pass filtering in the streamwise direction. The structures of the two-point spatial correlations of the streamwise velocity component of the VLSMs and the LSMs in the streamwise-azimuthal plane are characterized by multiple maxima and complex patterns that beg explanation in terms of patterned coherent arrangements of the LSMs. Using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), it is found that the X-shape correlation pattern of the VLSMs results from the superposition of very long helically inclined structures and streamwise-aligned structures. Further explanation of the patterns in the correlations of the VLSMs and LSMs is provided through the study of synthetically constructed arrangements of simple hairpin packet models of the LSM. Head-to-tail alignment of the model packets along streamwise and helical directions suggested by the eigenvalues of the POD creates a pair of long roll-cells centred above the logarithmic layer, and bracketing the LSMs. These roll-cells are pure kinematic consequences of the induction within the LSM packets, but they may also serve to organize smaller packets.

We develop the limit theory of the quantilogram and cross-quantilogram under long memory. We establish the sub-root-n central limit theorems for quantilograms that depend on nuisance parameters. We propose a moving block bootstrap (MBB) procedure for inference and establish its consistency, thereby enabling a consistent confidence interval construction for the quantilograms. The newly developed reduction principles for the quantilograms serve as the main technical devices used to derive the asymptotics and establish the validity of MBB. We report some simulation evidence that our methods work satisfactorily. We apply our method to quantile predictive relations between financial returns and long-memory predictors.

Objectives: Rotator cuff tear is the leading cause of the decline in quality of life for older adults, but comparative evidence on treatment effectiveness is lacking. This study systematically reviewed the effects of various rotator cuff tear treatments through a Bayesian meta-analysis of the related randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Methods: We searched nine electronic databases for RCTs evaluating rotator cuff tear treatments from their inception through June 2017. A systematic review was performed following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-Decision Support Unit guidelines (Supplementary Table 1). Outcomes included functional improvement, pain one year after surgical treatment, and tendon structural integrity. The Bayesian network meta-analysis was applied for functional improvement and pain, based on an assumption of consistency and similarity. Tendon integrity was reported descriptively.

Results: Fifteen RCTs were selected. Patients undergoing physiotherapy after open surgery showed statistically significant functional improvements compared with those undergoing physiotherapy only (mean differences, 9.1 [credible interval, 0.9–17.4]). Open surgery with physiotherapy was associated with a decrease in pain 1 year after treatment compared with when physiotherapy was combined with arthroscopic rotator cuff surgery, mini open surgery, platelet-rich plasma therapy, or physiotherapy alone (absolute value of mean difference 1.2 to 1.4). The tendon integrity results were inconsistent.

Conclusions: Some surgical treatments were associated with significant improvement in function and pain, but evidence regarding their comparative effectiveness is still lacking. A well-designed RCT discussing functional and structural treatment outcomes is needed in future.

This study responds to the call for more ecologically valid psycholinguistic research (Spivey & Cardon, 2015) by examining how readers incidentally acquire multifaceted vocabulary knowledge while reading a long, authentic text. Using eye tracking, we explore how the processing of unfamiliar words changes with repeated exposure and how the repeated exposure and processing affect word learning. In two sessions, native and non-native English speakers read five chapters of an authentic English novel containing Dari words. After reading, participants received a comprehension test and three surprise vocabulary tests. Growth curve modeling revealed a non-linear decrease in reading times that followed an S shaped curve. Number of exposures was the strongest predictor of vocabulary learning (form and meaning), while total reading time independently contributed to the learning of word meaning. Thus, both quantity and quality of lexical processing aid incremental vocabulary development and may reveal themselves differently in readers’ eye movement records.

This paper studies the GMM estimation and inference problem that occurs when the Jacobian of the moment conditions is rank deficient of known forms at the true parameter values. Dovonon and Renault (2013) recently raised a local identification issue stemming from this type of degenerate Jacobian. The local identification issue leads to a slow rate of convergence of the GMM estimator and a nonstandard asymptotic distribution of the over-identification test statistics. We show that the known form of rank-deficient Jacobian matrix contains nontrivial information about the economic model. By exploiting such information in estimation, we provide GMM estimator and over-identification tests with standard properties. The main theory developed in this paper is applied to the estimation of and inference about the common conditionally heteroskedastic (CH) features in asset returns. The performances of the newly proposed GMM estimators and over-identification tests are investigated under the similar simulation designs used in Dovonon and Renault (2013).

The effect of large-scale motions (LSMs) on the turbulent/non-turbulent (T/NT) interface is examined in a turbulent boundary layer. Using flow fields from direct numerical simulation, the shape of the interface and near-interface statistics are evaluated conditional on the position of the LSM. The T/NT interface is identified using the vorticity magnitude and a streak detection algorithm is adopted to identify and track the LSMs. Two-point correlation and spectral analysis of variations in the interface height show that the spatial undulation of the interface is longer in streamwise wavelength than the boundary-layer thickness, and grows with the Reynolds number in a similar manner to the LSMs. The average variation in the interface height was evaluated conditional on the position of the LSMs. The result provides statistical evidence that the interface is locally modulated by the LSMs in both the streamwise and spanwise directions. The modulation is different when the coherent structure is high- versus low-speed motion: high-speed structures lead to a wedge-shaped deformation of the T/NT interface, which causes an anti-correlation between the angles of the interface and the internal shear layer. On the other hand, low-speed structures are correlated with crests in the interface. Finally, the sudden changes in turbulence statistics across the interface are in line with the changes in the population of low-speed structures, which consist of slower mean streamwise velocity and stronger turbulence than the high-speed counterparts.

Direct numerical simulation data from turbulent pipe and channel flows at $\mathit{Re}_{\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}}\approx 930$ are used to investigate their statistical difference by focusing on large-scale motions (LSMs). The contribution to the bulk production of turbulent kinetic energy shows marked differences in the overlap and core regions. These discrepancies arise from the dominant contributions of the LSMs ($\unicode[STIX]{x1D706}_{x}>3\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}$) to the Reynolds shear stress in the channel flow. The spectrum of the net Reynolds shear force reveals that the LSMs accelerate the mean flow in the overlap region. The net force spectrum is further decomposed into the spectra of velocity–vorticity correlations, $\langle v\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}_{z}\rangle$ and $\langle -w\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}_{y}\rangle$, which are related to the advective vorticity transport and the change-of-scale effect, respectively. The dominance of large-scale accelerating motions (LSAMs) in the overlap region of the channel flow is due to the contribution of $\langle -w\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}_{y}\rangle$ at longer wavelengths ($\unicode[STIX]{x1D706}_{x}>3\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FF}$), The LSAMs are related to the long low-speed regions, and these regions are longer and wider in the channel flow than in the pipe flow. Due to the pipe curvature, the spanwise size of the LSMs is restricted by neighbouring LSMs and the spanwise velocity fluctuations are reduced. The contribution of $\langle -w\unicode[STIX]{x1D714}_{y}\rangle$ to the acceleration is prominent in the channel flow, leading to the dominance of the LSAMs associated with the change-of-scale effect.

We present a series of numerical models describing the dynamical evolution of globular clusters with a mass spectrum, based on integration of the Fokker-Planck equation. We include three-body binary heating and a steady galactic tidal field. A wide range of initial mass functions is adopted and the evolution of the mass function is examined. The mass function begins to change appreciably during the post-collapse expansion phase due to the selective evaporation of low mass stars through the tidal boundary. One signature of highly evolved clusters is thus the significant flattening of the mass function. The age (in units of the half-mass relaxation time) increases very rapidly beyond about 100 signifying the final stage of cluster disruption. This appears to be consistent with the sharp cut-off of half-mass relaxation times at near 108 years for the Galactic globular clusters.