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This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdown and government fiscal plan, containing ‘green’ elements on the economy and the environment of South Africa. The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model operationalised using a social accounting matrix coupled with a greenhouse gas balance and emissions data. We find that while the economy is harshly impacted by the pandemic in the short term, the government fiscal package ameliorates and cushions the negative effects on poor households. Importantly, an adaptation of the fiscal package towards a ‘greener’ policy achieves the same economic outcome and reduces unemployment. Carbon dioxide emissions decrease in the short run due to economic slowdown. This improvement persists until 2030. These results can be used as decision support for policy makers on how to orient the post COVID-19 policies to be pro-poor and pro-environment, and thus, ‘build back better and fairer’.
This special issue contributes to the natural resource economics literature by shining a light on the specific challenges and opportunities faced by developing countries that have recently become dependent on natural resources or are particularly exposed to climate change. It is composed of five studies on countries from all regions of the developing world, involving a variety of natural resources and policy issues. Four of the five studies illustrate how computable general equilibrium models are particularly well-suited, despite their relatively limited past use, to the analysis of natural resources. All five studies are led by researchers based in these countries, providing unique insights into the specific local context. The studies underscore the extreme vulnerability that the introduction of significant natural resource revenues and climate change can create in developing countries. They also show how the choice of appropriate policies to avoid the resource curse varies according to country-specific economic conditions.
The economy of Mongolia, a country rich in natural resources, is increasingly dependent upon the mining sector. International prices of mining commodities have been highly volatile in recent years. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to examine the short-term effects on the Mongolian economy of two scenarios: (1) a moderate boom in the coal market; and (2) a drop in the world price of metal ores. It is found that the Dutch disease effect generated by the shocks is insignificant given the structure of the economy (e.g., small export shares and low export intensity of manufacturing and agriculture commodities) and a labor market condition with high unemployment. Since the economy is largely dependent upon on the mining sector, the impacts of the shocks are jarring, implying that the government must abide by its fiscal rules for stable growth and prosperity.
This study analyzes a public-spending option from mining and oil resources and its impact on Niger's economy. The windfall gain from mining and oil revenues provides an opportunity for the country to reinvest natural resource rents, enhance economic development, and address infrastructure gaps. Drawing on the country's recent and expected mining and oil exploitation, we evaluate the effects of a reinvestment policy in road infrastructure using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that investment in road infrastructure brings positive spillover effects to other sectors of the economy and benefits to the economy in the long run. Our analysis additionally shows that reinvestment in road infrastructure, given the initial state of infrastructure in Niger, could help mitigate the resource curse.
Cet article analyse l'impact d'une augmentation des dépenses publiques en éducation sur la performance du système éducatif sud africain et ses conséquences sur le marché du travail en utilisant un Modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable (MEGC) en dynamique séquentielle. Le système éducatif sud africain porte les stigmates de l'Apartheid et une intervention publique plus accentuée est l'un des moyens envisagés pour corriger les inégalités héritées de l'ancien régime politique. Nos résultats montrent une amélioration des performances des étudiants et des effets positifs à court terme sur l'économie. A long terme, la population sud africaine, et en particulier les African, devient plus qualifiée, mais l'économie ne créant pas suffisamment d'emplois, une partie de ces nouveaux qualifiés se retrouve au chômage.
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