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In this Element we build on our previous work conceptualizing a craft learning model for governing police discretion. We envision a model for harnessing patrol officers' craft knowledge and skills, learned through experience handling similar street-level encounters over time, to the development of standards for evaluating the quality of their decision-making. To clarify the logic of this model and its potential for police reform, we situate it within the context of other systems of discretion control, including law, bureaucracy, science, and the community. We also consider obstacles. We conclude that police organizations need to balance the different strategies for channeling and controlling discretion toward the goal of advancing more transparent and principled decision-making. The challenge is finding a balance that helps prevent arbitrary, pernicious, or uncompromising uses of police authority, but that also empowers and rewards officers for using the skills of perception and resourcefulness that contribute to wise judgment.
Outdoor activities have accelerated in the past several years. The authors were tasked with providing medical care for the Union Cycliste International (UCI) mountain biking World Cup in Snowshoe, West Virginia (USA) in September 2021. The Hartman and Arbon models were designed to predict patient presentation and hospital transport rates as well as needed medical resources at urban mass-gathering events. However, there is a lack of standardized methods to predict injury, illness, and insult severity at rural mass gatherings.
This study aimed to determine whether the Arbon model would predict, within 10%, the number of patient presentations to be expected and to determine if the event classification provided by the Hartman model would adequately predict resources needed during the event.
Race data were collected from UCI event officials and injury data were collected from participants at time of presentation for medical care. Predicted presentation and transport rates were calculated using the Arbon model, which was then compared to the actual observed presentation rates. Furthermore, the event classification provided by the Hartman model was compared to the resources utilized during the event.
During the event, 34 patients presented for medical care and eight patients required some level of transport to a medical facility. The Arbon predictive model for the 2021 event yielded 30.3 expected patient presentations. There were 34 total patient presentations during the 2021 race, approximately 11% more than predicted. The Hartman model yielded a score of four. Based on this score, this race would be classified as an “intermediate” event, requiring multiple Advanced Life Support (ALS) and Basic Life Support (BLS) personnel and transport units.
The Arbon model provided a predicted patient presentation rate within reasonable error to allow for effective pre-event planning and resource allocation with only a four patient presentation difference from the actual data. While the Arbon model under-predicted patient presentations, the Hartman model under-estimated resources needed due to the high-risk nature of downhill cycling. The events staffed required physician skills and air medical services to safely care for patients. Further evaluation of rural events will be needed to determine if there is a generalized need for physician presence at smaller events with inherently risky activities, or if this recurring cycling event is an outlier.
We examined the association between multidrug resistance and socioeconomic status (SES), analyzing microbiological and ZIP-code–level socioeconomic data. Using generalized linear models, we determined that multidrug resistance is significantly and persistently more prevalent in samples taken from patients residing in low-income ZIP codes versus high-income ZIP codes in North Carolina.
Evidence-based policing (EBP) is perhaps the most significant police reform movement of the last 30 years. Most notable for identifying what does or does not work, and for trying to integrate science into policing, much of EBP’s focus remains on program evaluation methods and investigating crime prevention strategies. This vision for policing often characterizes the craft of police work as an obstacle rather than a useful contributor to science. This is changing, as proponents of EBP begin to embrace a wider variety of methods to assess a broader range of outcomes, and to treat both science and experience as necessary elements of successful police reform. In this chapter, we recommend that EBP focus more attention on assessing the choices that patrol officers make in their everyday encounters with the public. Drawing on a case study of a neighbor dispute, we show how EBP could benefit from listening to practioners and learning what their rich experiences have taught them about how best to respond. We also suggest ways that research might help generate knowledge on the essential normative or moral questions that characterize street-level discretion, and thus combine knowledge about what works with knowledge about doing the right thing.
To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications.
A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled.
Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread.
Children aged 6 to 59 months.
Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) <−2), (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm), (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) and (WAZ < −3) had the highest informedness in predicting mortality. A combined case definition (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3) was better at predicting deaths associated with weight-for-height Z-score <−3 and concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) than the single WAZ < −3 case definition. After the assessment of all criteria, the combined case definition performed best. The simulated workload for programmes admitting based on MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < −3, when adjusted with a proxy for required intensity and/or duration of treatment, was 1·87 times larger than programmes admitting on MUAC < 115 mm alone.
A combined case definition detects nearly all deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits suggesting that therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact (prevent mortality and improve coverage) by using it. There remain operational questions to examine further before wide-scale adoption can be recommended.
To compare the prognostic value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) for predicting death over periods of 1, 3 and 6 months follow-up in children.
Pooled analysis of twelve prospective studies examining survival after anthropometric assessment. Sensitivity and false-positive ratios to predict death within 1, 3 and 6 months were compared for three individual anthropometric indices and their combinations.
Community-based, prospective studies from twelve countries in Africa and Asia.
Children aged 6–59 months living in the study areas.
For all anthropometric indices, the receiver operating characteristic curves were higher for shorter than for longer durations of follow-up. Sensitivity was higher for death with 1-month follow-up compared with 6 months by 49 % (95 % CI (30, 69)) for MUAC < 115 mm (P < 0·001), 48 % (95 % CI (9·4, 87)) for WHZ < -3 (P < 0·01) and 28 % (95 % CI (7·6, 42)) for WAZ < -3 (P < 0·005). This was accompanied by an increase in false positives of only 3 % or less. For all durations of follow-up, WAZ < -3 identified more children who died and were not identified by WHZ < -3 or by MUAC < 115 mm, 120 mm or 125 mm, but the use of WAZ < -3 led to an increased false-positive ratio up to 16·4 % (95 % CI (12·0, 20·9)) compared with 3·5 % (95 % CI (0·4, 6·5)) for MUAC < 115 mm alone.
Frequent anthropometric measurements significantly improve the identification of malnourished children with a high risk of death without markedly increasing false positives. Combining two indices increases sensitivity but also increases false positives among children meeting case definitions.
Since the 1960s, police departments have turned to rules and procedures to help control how patrol officers, as legal decision-makers, exercise their discretionary authority. The logic of the administrative rulemaking model depends on the development and enforcement of bureaucratic rules and regulations. The public outcry over high-profile incidents of police abuses of authority has renewed interest in this approach. This article conceptualizes a complementary craft learning model to supplement rulemaking. This model harnesses patrol officers’ knowledge and skills, learned through experience, to the development of criteria for assessing and guiding how they use their discretion in less dramatic encounters with the public. Using in-depth interviews with thirty-eight patrol officers reacting to a video clip of a fairly routine and low-key neighbor dispute, we derive seven evaluative standards (accountability, lawfulness, problem diagnosis, repair of harm, economy, fairness, and safety and order). We then explore how these standards could be used by first-line supervisors to structure reviews of patrol officer decision-making through a process of reflection-in-action. Our purpose is to imagine a reform strategy that tries to account for the complex technical and normative dimensions of everyday police work to facilitate more deliberate, transparent, and principled decisions.
Prisons are susceptible to outbreaks. Control measures focusing on isolation and cohorting negatively affect wellbeing. We present an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a large male prison in Wales, UK, October 2020 to April 2021, and discuss control measures.
We gathered case-information, including demographics, staff-residence postcode, resident cell number, work areas/dates, test results, staff interview dates/notes and resident prison-transfer dates. Epidemiological curves were mapped by prison location. Control measures included isolation (exclusion from work or cell-isolation), cohorting (new admissions and work-area groups), asymptomatic testing (case-finding), removal of communal dining and movement restrictions. Facemask use and enhanced hygiene were already in place. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and interviews determined the genetic relationship between cases plausibility of transmission.
Of 453 cases, 53% (n = 242) were staff, most aged 25–34 years (11.5% females, 27.15% males) and symptomatic (64%). Crude attack-rate was higher in staff (29%, 95% CI 26–64%) than in residents (12%, 95% CI 9–15%).
Whole-genome sequencing can help differentiate multiple introductions from person-to-person transmission in prisons. It should be introduced alongside asymptomatic testing as soon as possible to control prison outbreaks. Timely epidemiological investigation, including data visualisation, allowed dynamic risk assessment and proportionate control measures, minimising the reduction in resident welfare.
Two introduced carnivores, the European red fox Vulpes vulpes and domestic cat Felis catus, have had extensive impacts on Australian biodiversity. In this study, we collate information on consumption of Australian birds by the fox, paralleling a recent study reporting on birds consumed by cats. We found records of consumption by foxes on 128 native bird species (18% of the non-vagrant bird fauna and 25% of those species within the fox’s range), a smaller tally than for cats (343 species, including 297 within the fox’s Australian range, a subset of that of the cat). Most (81%) bird species eaten by foxes are also eaten by cats, suggesting that predation impacts are compounded. As with consumption by cats, birds that nest or forage on the ground are most likely to be consumed by foxes. However, there is also some partitioning, with records of consumption by foxes but not cats for 25 bird species, indicating that impacts of the two predators may also be complementary. Bird species ≥3.4 kg were more likely to be eaten by foxes, and those <3.4 kg by cats. Our compilation provides an inventory and describes characteristics of Australian bird species known to be consumed by foxes, but we acknowledge that records of predation do not imply population-level impacts. Nonetheless, there is sufficient information from other studies to demonstrate that fox predation has significant impacts on the population viability of some Australian birds, especially larger birds, and those that nest or forage on the ground.
Teaching Secondary History provides a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of teaching History to years 7–12 in Australian schools. Engaging directly with the Australian Curriculum, this text introduces pre-service teachers to the discipline of History. It builds on students' historical knowledge, thinking and skills and offers practical guidance on how to construct well-rounded History lessons for students. From inquiry strategies and teacher- and student-centred practice, to embedding the cross-curriculum priorities in planning and assessment, this text supports the learning and development of pre-service History teachers by connecting the 'big ideas' of teaching with the nuance of History content. Each chapter features short-answer and Pause and think questions to enhance understanding of key concepts, Bringing it together review questions to consolidate learning, classroom scenarios, examples of classroom work and a range of information boxes to connect students to additional material.