Depression and anxiety are common and often comorbid mental health disorders that represent risk factors for aging-related conditions. Brain aging has shown to be more advanced in patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Here, we extend prior work by investigating multivariate brain aging in patients with MDD and/or anxiety disorders and examine which factors contribute to older appearing brains. Adults aged 18-57 years from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety underwent structural MRI. A pre-trained brain age prediction model based on >2,000 samples from the ENIGMA consortium was applied to obtain brain-predicted age differences (brain-PAD, predicted brain age minus chronological age) in 65 controls and 220 patients with current MDD and/or anxiety. Brain-PAD estimates were associated with clinical, somatic, lifestyle, and biological factors. After correcting for antidepressant use, brain-PAD was significantly higher in MDD (+2.78 years, Cohen’s d=0.25, 95% CI -0.10-0.60) and anxiety patients (+2.91 years, Cohen’s d=0.27, 95% CI -0.08-0.61), compared to controls. There were no significant associations with lifestyle or biological stress systems. A multivariable model indicated unique contributions of higher severity of somatic depression symptoms (b=4.21 years per unit increase on average sum score) and antidepressant use (-2.53 years) to brain-PAD. Advanced brain aging in patients with MDD and anxiety was most strongly associated with somatic depressive symptomatology. We also present clinically relevant evidence for a potential neuroprotective antidepressant effect on the brain-PAD metric that requires follow-up in future research.

Over the past decade in the Netherlands, most operators have only developed a single doublet. The learning effect from these single events is suboptimal, and operators have only been capable of developing doublets in areas with relatively low exploration risk. This ‘stand-alone’ approach can be significantly improved by a collective approach to derisk regions with similar subsurface characteristics. Such a play-based portfolio approach, which is common in the oil and gas industry, can help to accelerate the development of the geothermal industry through unlocking resource potential in areas marked by high upfront geological risk, effectively helping reduce costs for the development. The basis of the methodology is to deploy new information to the play portfolio by trading off with the risk of the first wells, resulting in a strong geological risk reduction.

The added value of the portfolio approach is demonstrated for the Netherlands in this paper through a comparison with a ‘stand-alone’ development. In the stand-alone approach, each new project will be equally risky, and therefore relatively unprofitable. In the case of a portfolio approach, all experience about the play is used optimally for derisking. In case of success, subsequent projects will have a higher chance of being successful, due to the experience gained in previous projects. Even if a project fails, this may help in increasing the probability of success for subsequent projects. For plays that are initially considered too risky for the market to start developing, the value of information (VoI) of a play-based portfolio approach will help by derisking the play to such an extent that it becomes attractive for the market to develop, even at high initial risk. It can be demonstrated for several geothermal plays in the Netherlands that by adopting the portfolio approach, the probability of a play being developed becomes higher, the number of successfully developed projects increases and the average profitability of the project will also be higher. Five more advantages are: (1) continuous improvement by integrated project development, (2) cost reduction through synergy, efficiency and standardisation, (3) optimisation of the surface heat demand and infrastructure, (4) the possibility of structural research and development (R&D) and innovation, and (5) financing advantages. The advantages reinforce each other.

A preliminary estimate of the geothermal potential of the Netherlands adopting the portfolio approach is between 90 and 275 Petajoules (PJ). For about 350 doublets being developed, producing about 70 PJ, the value of the advantage of the play-based portfolio approach is €2 billion for the three main plays: Rotliegend, Triassic and Jurassic/Cretaceous. The learning effects of synergy, efficiency and standardisation are expected to be significant.

Geothermal energy is a viable alternative to gas for the heating of buildings, industrial areas and greenhouses, and can thus play an important role in making the transition to sustainable energy in the Netherlands. Heat is currently produced from the Dutch subsurface through circulation of water between two wells in deep (1.5–3 km) geothermal formations with temperature of up to ∼100 °C. As the number of these so-called doublets is expected to increase significantly over the next decades, and targeted depths and temperatures increase, it is important to assess potential show-stoppers related to geothermal operations. One of these potential hazards is the possibility of the occurrence of felt seismic events, which could potentially damage infrastructure and housing, and affect public support. Such events have been observed in several geothermal systems in other countries. Here we review the occurrence (or the lack) of felt seismic events in geothermal systems worldwide and identify key factors influencing the occurrence and magnitude of these events. Based on this review, we project the findings for seismicity in geothermal systems to typical geothermal formations and future geothermal developments in the Netherlands. The case study review shows that doublets that circulate fluids through relatively shallow, porous, sedimentary aquifers far from the crystalline basement are unlikely to generate felt seismic events. On the other hand, stimulations or circulations in or near competent, fractured, basement rocks and production and reinjection operations in high-temperature geothermal fields are more prone to induce felt events, occasionally with magnitudes of M > 5.0. Many of these operations are situated in tectonically active areas, and stress and temperature changes may be large. The presence of large, optimally oriented and critically stressed faults increases the potential for induced seismicity. The insights from the case study review suggest that the potential for the occurrence of M > 2.0 seismicity for geothermal operations in several of the sandstone target formations in the Netherlands is low, especially if faults can be avoided. The potential for induced seismicity may be moderate for operations in faulted carbonate rocks. Induced seismicity always remains a complex and site-specific process with large unknowns, and can never be excluded entirely. However, assessing the potential for inducing felt seismic events can be improved by considering the relevant (site-specific) geological and operational key factors discussed in this article.

The nature of the census figures produced by Demetrius of Phaleron, crucial evidence for the size of the Athenian population, has been misunderstood. The census categories were not ‘native Athenians, foreign residents and slaves’, but ‘citizens above the property qualification, residents without political rights and members of households’. The property qualification of 1,000 drachmas associated with Demetrius' regime was the requirement for holding the highest offices; the property requirement for citizenship rights was lower, as it was in the spurious constitution of Draco described in Athenaion Politeia 4, which was probably invented and inserted during Demetrius' reign. In the light of this reinterpretation of the evidence for the structure of the Athenian population under Demetrius, a reconsideration of the evidence for the size of the Athenian population in 322 BC suggests that there were ca. 30,000 adult male citizens and far fewer metics than generally assumed, probably ca. 5,000. The distribution of property among the citizen population was very uneven, with the richest 30% of the population owning about 80% of the wealth. According to Demetrius’ census as reinterpreted here, slaves outnumbered free residents by ‘only’ about 3:1, which still seems an implausibly high figure, but needs to be taken seriously as a government estimate rather than a rhetorical exaggeration.