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In order to assess the recidivism risk of adults who have been convicted of violent and/or sexual offenses, there exist two kinds of formal assessments: an actuarial risk assessment approach and a nonactuarial approach which is usually called “structured professional judgment” (SPJ). The actuarial risk assessment approach could be further divided into risk assessment instruments which are using predominantly static (i.e., biographical, criminological, and unchangeable) or dynamic (i.e., changeable by, for example, treatment-related processes) risk factors. The SPJ approach is a research-based professional guideline approach to decision-making which provides bench marks for integrating information from a broad range of risk factors associated with recidivism. These instruments are based on considerations of the relevant scientific, professional, and legal literature. The present chapter provides an overview about the main characteristics of both risk assessment approaches as well as about the internationally most commonly used and best validated actuarial and SPJ instruments.
Impairment in reciprocal social behavior (RSB), an essential component of early social competence, clinically defines autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, the behavioral and genetic architecture of RSB in toddlerhood, when ASD first emerges, has not been fully characterized. We analyzed data from a quantitative video-referenced rating of RSB (vrRSB) in two toddler samples: a community-based volunteer research registry (n = 1,563) and an ethnically diverse, longitudinal twin sample ascertained from two state birth registries (n = 714). Variation in RSB was continuously distributed, temporally stable, significantly associated with ASD risk at age 18 months, and only modestly explained by sociodemographic and medical factors (r2 = 9.4%). Five latent RSB factors were identified and corresponded to aspects of social communication or restricted repetitive behaviors, the two core ASD symptom domains. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated substantial heritability for all factors at age 24 months (h2 ≥ .61). Genetic influences strongly overlapped across all factors, with a social motivation factor showing evidence of newly-emerging genetic influences between the ages of 18 and 24 months. RSB constitutes a heritable, trait-like competency whose factorial and genetic structure is generalized across diverse populations, demonstrating its role as an early, enduring dimension of inherited variation in human social behavior. Substantially overlapping RSB domains, measurable when core ASD features arise and consolidate, may serve as markers of specific pathways to autism and anchors to inform determinants of autism's heterogeneity.
Many forensic psychologists appraise the risk of future violence for criminal offenders or psychiatric patients involved in the criminal justice system. There are several systems to be relied upon for adult forensic cases, and the impetus for this work began more than fifty years ago with the recognition that formulaic, mechanical or actuarial methods are more accurate than informal clinical judgement, experience and intuition, especially for violence. There are two kinds of formal (formulaic, mechanical) assessments for violence risk: actuarial and non-actuarial. The non-empirical methods, typical of such non-actuarial schemes, used in developing the HCR-20 contrast with actuarial techniques. No evidence supports the HCR-20 manual's requirements to render a final three-category judgement based on idiosyncratic factors, include a clinical interview, or regard perceived changes in so-called clinical and risk-management items as indicating altered risk.
Various political realities influence the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and, more generally, the vitality of the international law of occupation. The law of occupation—though ill-suited to modern international relations and ill-equipped for prolonged occupation—has been almost universally invoked as applicable to the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). At the same time, international human rights law is increasingly viewed as applicable to occupation. This creates a dilemma for Israel because international humanitarian law and international human rights law contain conflicting prescriptions and policy goals with respect to the administration of occupied territory. In many instances, occupants seek United Nations Security Council action in order to reconcile this tension and to secure legal and political cover for their actions. By acting under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter; the Security Council can create a select legal patchwork applicable to a particular occupation. This use of Chapter VII resolutions by the Security Council to create international law by fiat is an important trend in modern occupation. Yet geopolitics determines access to—and the content of—such resolutions, and the sensitive political context of the OPT currently makes this avenue unavailable to Israel. For the same reason, opponents of the Israeli occupation are unable to secure Security Council action to clarify and enforce Israeli legal obligations in the OPT. This Article considers these issues from the perspectives of both Israel and Palestinians in order to examine why the relative gain and loss in each case is not immediately clear. This Article also discusses how the legality of Israeli conduct in the OPT may be gauged in light of the conflicting international legal obligations imposed by human rights law and the law of occupation. A broader exploration of the impact of these phenomena reveals that these political realities serve to increase the influence of the Security Council while further undercutting the utility and relevance of the international law of occupation.
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