This chapter provides a detailed account of the historical, political, and economic context of Mozambique. We draw attention to the big picture story and argue that the post-independence socio-economic performance and patterns of change cannot be understood without reference to the troubled history of the country. We identify fourteen core messages to keep in mind throughout the volume. They lead to selecting eight thematic areas for further study in Chapters 4 to 11.

This synthesis aims to put together the different threads pursued throughout this volume and presents our institutional diagnostic. We note as point of departure that Frelimo’s continuing inability to promote agriculture and broad-based private sector growth helps explain why the country lacks a consistent domestic engine of inclusive growth. We also return to the fork in the road. Remaining on the present path would lead to increasing inequality, further regional imbalances, and possibly armed conflict. The alternative is to use the expected gas revenues effectively for poverty reduction. Political power and authority continue to be almost exclusively vested in Frelimo. This stands out as a deep factor in our diagnostic. It takes visionary and brave leaders to take on the necessary reforms. to put the country back on a favourable trend. The uniting capabilities that Frelimo at least once possessed are exactly what is needed now. While one may argue that changes identified here are not necessary for Frelimo’s hold on power, the implications of increasing inequality, fragmentation, and conflict, serve as a strong warning sign and incentive to act in the national interest.

In this chapter we summarise results from studying existing institutional indicators, a quantitative survey of 149 respondents and more than 50 hours of interviews with key informants. Focus is on identifying a series of key institutional weaknesses for further analysis in subsequent chapters.

This chapter explores agricultural performance of Mozambique, its institutional weaknesses, and the underlying factors that underpin an unsatisfactory performance during many decades. We point to the role of systemic political instability and violence combined with challenges to state legitimacy. Regional divides and lack of market integration continue to influence in a critical and all-encompassing manner. Finally, the way in which the interests of the elite and donor influence have affected progress in the agriculture sector suggests the need for concerted reorientation in existing strategies, policies, and priorities. This is reinforced by future challenges, including the extractive industry; population growth and internal migration; national and international markets; climate change; and COVID-19. We highlight the need to place the future of agriculture in Mozambique within a long-term perspective, focusing on the adoption and stabilisation of an institutional framework aimed at increasing agricultural productivity and preserving the environment.

This chapter serves as a general introduction and overview. It defines the fork in the road and outlines Mozambiques historical context. It goes on to identifying eight key proximate causes and deep factors that determine the basic institutional weaknesses of the country, which are in focus throughout the remainder of the volume.