This chapter suggests that social, political, institutional and demographic changes already observable in Africa hold out the possibility of national futures in which the manipulation of ethnic difference could cease to be the main route to political power. In the first of four sections it is argued that, although ethnic allegiances are powerful there are other, situational, identities round which human interests may gather. It is shown, secondly, that there is no single model or measure that can reliably relate ethnic diversity to economic development or the nature of governance. Since the early postcolonial years of “nation-building”, third, many civil society organisations have arisen in Africa, to promote not only ethnic interests but also such heterogeneous group identities as the urban poor in mega cities, women (often peacemakers), youth, and HIV/AIDS sufferers. While, finally, these organisations, including Pentecostal churches, may be led by “big men”, they nonetheless diversify and complicate the “big man” politics of ethnic difference that has rarely met such competition until now.

In September 2011, a panel of economic experts, comprising five of the world's most distinguished economists, convened at Georgetown University to interview the authors of the eighteen research chapters presented in RethinkHIV. The members of the Georgetown University Expert Panel were:

• Professor Ernest Aryeetey, Vice Chancellor, University of Ghana;

• Professor Paul Collier, Director, Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University;

• Professor Edward Prescott, Arizona State University (Nobel laureate);

• Professor Thomas Schelling, University of Maryland (Nobel laureate);

• Professor Vernon L. Smith, Chapman University (Nobel laureate).

During the roundtable meeting, the panel appraised the research and engaged with the eighteen sets of authors. This built on the panel's experience over the course of 2011 of examining and reviewing draft versions of the research papers.

The panel was tasked with answering the question:

In ordering the proposals, the panel was guided predominantly by consideration of economic costs and benefits. The panel agreed that the cost-benefit approach was an indispensable organizing method. In setting priorities, the panel took account of the strengths and weaknesses of the specific cost‐benefit appraisals under review, and gave weight both to the institutional preconditions for success and to the demands of ethical or humanitarian urgency.

Introduction

Ghana experienced its first half-century as an independent nation in March 2007. However, the early promise of democracy combined with economic and social development that hailed the new era in 1957 led to disappointments in the first three decades of independence. While democracy has now been restored, with the peaceful transfer of one civilian administration to another in 2001, and while there has been some recovery from the earlier economic collapse, the challenge of economic and social transformation looms large.

Indeed, the last two decades have seen steady and significant economic growth in spite of considerable instability in macroeconomic performance and a growing dependence on aid and other foreign inflows. An average of 4.9% GDP growth and a per capita GDP growth of about 2.9% have been recorded for the best part of that period. While the growth performance may not be exceptional it has been significantly above average by African standards. In their study of the ‘Drivers of Change’ in Ghana, Booth et al. (2004) identify economic liberalization in the 1980s and political liberalization in the 1990s as the key factors behind the fairly decent growth performance. It is important to observe that, since 2001, the macroeconomic policy situation has improved considerably, and the environment is less subject to policy reversals and deviations from agreed policies.

But the relationship between economic growth and the most important social concern, poverty, has been unclear. The perception is that the number of people living below the poverty line has not changed in tandem.

Introduction

When Ghana became the first African nation to achieve independence from colonial rule on 6 March 1957, there was much jubilation and hope that it would pioneer the way toward rapid growth and development for Africa as a continent. Indeed, Ghana experienced reasonably high growth soon thereafter, but by 1965 per capita growth was already negative, and when the coup d'état overthrew the Nkrumah regime in February 1966, per capita income was below its value at the time of independence. Conditions appeared to improve significantly during the late 1960s and early 1970s. However, the mid-1970s saw the beginning of significant deterioration, so that, by the early 1980s, per capita GDP had reached its nadir in the history of Ghana's post-independence. While economic conditions have improved markedly since then, the growth rate has failed to accelerate significantly, and per capita income has yet to reach its level in 1957.

In 1993 Ghana set itself the target of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2020, requiring an estimated GDP growth rate of about 8% per annum. In the five years since the inception of the set targets, however, the economy showed no capacity to move towards it. Whereas GDP was expected to grow by between 7.1% and 8.3% in the period 1996-2000, actual growth was between 4.2% and 5.0%. In 1999, for example, all macroeconomic targets were off by quite substantial margins, and the trend continued into 2000.