Remitted psychotic depression (MDDPsy) has heterogeneity of outcome. The study's aims were to identify subgroups of persons with remitted MDDPsy with distinct trajectories of depression severity during continuation treatment and to detect predictors of membership to the worsening trajectory.

One hundred and twenty-six persons aged 18–85 years participated in a 36-week randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) that examined the clinical effects of continuing olanzapine once an episode of MDDPsy had remitted with sertraline plus olanzapine. Latent class mixed modeling was used to identify subgroups of participants with distinct trajectories of depression severity during the RCT. Machine learning was used to predict membership to the trajectories based on participant pre-trajectory characteristics.

Seventy-one (56.3%) participants belonged to a subgroup with a stable trajectory of depression scores and 55 (43.7%) belonged to a subgroup with a worsening trajectory. A random forest model with high prediction accuracy (AUC of 0.812) found that the strongest predictors of membership to the worsening subgroup were residual depression symptoms at onset of remission, followed by anxiety score at RCT baseline and age of onset of the first lifetime depressive episode. In a logistic regression model that examined depression score at onset of remission as the only predictor variable, the AUC (0.778) was close to that of the machine learning model.

Residual depression at onset of remission has high accuracy in predicting membership to worsening outcome of remitted MDDPsy. Research is needed to determine how best to optimize the outcome of psychotic MDDPsy with residual symptoms.

Little is known about the relationship between psychomotor disturbance (PMD) and treatment outcome of psychotic depression. This study examined the association between PMD and subsequent remission and relapse of treated psychotic depression.

Two hundred and sixty-nine men and women aged 18–85 years with an episode of psychotic depression were treated with open-label sertraline plus olanzapine for up to 12 weeks. Participants who remained in remission or near-remission following an 8-week stabilization phase were eligible to participate in a 36-week randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared the efficacy and tolerability of sertraline plus olanzapine (n = 64) with sertraline plus placebo (n = 62). PMD was measured with the psychiatrist-rated sign-based CORE at acute phase baseline and at RCT baseline. Spearman's correlations and logistic regression analyses were used to analyze the association between CORE total score at acute phase baseline and remission/near-remission and CORE total score at RCT baseline and relapse.

Higher CORE total score at acute phase baseline was associated with lower frequency of remission/near-remission. Higher CORE total score at RCT baseline was associated with higher frequency of relapse, in the RCT sample as a whole, as well as in each of the two randomized groups.

PMD is associated with poorer outcome of psychotic depression treated with sertraline plus olanzapine. Future research needs to examine the neurobiology of PMD in psychotic depression in relation to treatment outcome.