One in 57 children are diagnosed with autism in the UK, and the estimated cost for supporting these children in education is substantial. Social Stories™ is a promising and widely used intervention for supporting children with autism in schools and families. It is believed that Social Stories™ can provide meaningful social information to children that can improve social understanding and may reduce anxiety. However, no economic evaluation of Social Stories has been conducted.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of Social Stories through Autism Spectrum Social Stories in Schools Trial 2, a multi-site, pragmatic, cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Children with autism who were aged 4–11 years were recruited and randomised (N = 249). Costs measured from the societal perspective and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) measured by the EQ-5D-Y-3L proxy were collected at baseline and at 6-month follow-up for primary analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated, and the uncertainty around incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was captured by non-parametric bootstrapping. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the primary findings.

Social Stories is likely to result in a small cost savings (–£191 per child, 95% CI −767.7 to 337.7) and maintain similar QALY improvements compared with usual care. The probability of Social Stories being a preferred option is 75% if society is willing to pay £20 000 per QALY gained. The sensitivity analysis results aligned with the main study outcomes.

Compared with usual care, Social Stories did not lead to an increase in costs and maintained similar QALY improvements for primary-aged children with autism.

Sudden gains occur in a range of disorders and treatments and are of clinical and theoretical significance if they can shed light on therapeutic change processes. This study investigated the relationship between sudden gains in panic symptoms and preceding cognitive change during cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for panic disorder.

Participants with panic disorder completed in session measures of panic symptoms and catastrophic cognitions. Independent samples t-tests were used to compare the post-treatment score of those who met criteria for one or more sudden gain during treatment with those who did not, and to compare within-session cognitive change between pre-sudden gain sessions and the previous (control) session.

Twenty-two (42%) of 53 participants experienced a sudden gain during treatment. Participants demonstrating a sudden gain showed more improvement in panic symptoms from pre- to post-treatment than those without a sudden gain. The within-session cognitive change score in the pre-gain session was significantly greater than in the control session.

Sudden gains occurred in individual CBT for panic disorder and within-session cognitive change was associated with sudden gains. This is consistent with the cognitive model of panic disorder and highlights how sudden gains can help to identify key change processes.

Behavioural activation (BA) is recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines for the treatment of perinatal depression; however, there is limited evidence about whether it is effective when delivered by non-mental health specialists (NMHS) in a perinatal setting in the UK.

This study aimed to adapt a BA intervention manual and guided self-help booklet intended for delivery by NMHSs for the treatment of perinatal depression.

Interviews were conducted with 15 women and 19 healthcare professionals (HCP) within the first study element. Four experience-based co-design (EBCD) workshops were held, with the involvement of 14 women and three HCPs, to modify the BA documents for the specific needs of perinatal women. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data.

The findings from the study elements were presented with themes. The co-designers (women and HCPs) pointed out that having sleeping problems, changes in appetite, feeling exhausted and feeling emotional, may be experienced by non-depressed mothers as well during pregnancy or in the postpartum period, especially around the fourth day after giving birth. Therefore, it was important to differentiate these feelings from depression. The women also wanted to see an example for each activity before being asked to do it. Having examples would help them to see the possibilities before creating their own diary sheets or tables of activities.

Aside of the tool adaptation, the findings of this study provide a foundation to assess the effectiveness of the adapted intervention in a subsequent feasibility trial.

Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.

To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder.

We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility.

Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.

Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) queries about thoughts of death and self-harm, but not suicidality. Although it is sometimes used to assess suicide risk, most positive responses are not associated with suicidality. The PHQ-8, which omits Item 9, is thus increasingly used in research. We assessed equivalency of total score correlations and the diagnostic accuracy to detect major depression of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9.

We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis. We fit bivariate random-effects models to assess diagnostic accuracy.

16 742 participants (2097 major depression cases) from 54 studies were included. The correlation between PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 scores was 0.996 (95% confidence interval 0.996 to 0.996). The standard cutoff score of 10 for the PHQ-9 maximized sensitivity + specificity for the PHQ-8 among studies that used a semi-structured diagnostic interview reference standard (N = 27). At cutoff 10, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive by 0.02 (−0.06 to 0.00) and more specific by 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) among those studies (N = 27), with similar results for studies that used other types of interviews (N = 27). For all 54 primary studies combined, across all cutoffs, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive than the PHQ-9 by 0.00 to 0.05 (0.03 at cutoff 10), and specificity was within 0.01 for all cutoffs (0.00 to 0.01).

PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 total scores were similar. Sensitivity may be minimally reduced with the PHQ-8, but specificity is similar.

Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification.

To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics.

Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analysed and binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit.

A total of 17 158 participants (2287 with major depression) from 57 primary studies were analysed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.15–3.87). Compared with semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≤6) as having major depression (OR = 3.13; 95% CI = 0.98–10.00), similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7–15) (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.56–1.66) and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≥16) (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.26–0.97).

The MINI may identify more people as depressed than the CIDI, and semi-structured and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated.

Drs Jetté and Patten declare that they received a grant, outside the submitted work, from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute, which was jointly funded by the Institute and Pfizer. Pfizer was the original sponsor of the development of the PHQ-9, which is now in the public domain. Dr Chan is a steering committee member or consultant of Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Lilly, MSD and Pfizer. She has received sponsorships and honorarium for giving lectures and providing consultancy and her affiliated institution has received research grants from these companies. Dr Hegerl declares that within the past 3 years, he was an advisory board member for Lundbeck, Servier and Otsuka Pharma; a consultant for Bayer Pharma; and a speaker for Medice Arzneimittel, Novartis, and Roche Pharma, all outside the submitted work. Dr Inagaki declares that he has received grants from Novartis Pharma, lecture fees from Pfizer, Mochida, Shionogi, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo, Meiji Seika and Takeda, and royalties from Nippon Hyoron Sha, Nanzando, Seiwa Shoten, Igaku-shoin and Technomics, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Yamada reports personal fees from Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd., MSD K.K., Asahi Kasei Pharma Corporation, Seishin Shobo, Seiwa Shoten Co., Ltd., Igaku-shoin Ltd., Chugai Igakusha and Sentan Igakusha, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Behavioural activation appears as effective as cognitive– behaviour therapy (CBT) in the treatment of depression. If equally effective, then behavioural activation may be the preferred treatment option because it may be suitable for delivery by therapists with less training. This is the first randomised controlled trial to look at this possibility.

To examine whether generic mental health workers can deliver effective behavioural activation as a step-three high-intensity intervention.

A randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN27045243) comparing behavioural activation (n = 24) with treatment as usual (n = 23) in primary care.

Intention-to-treat analyses indicated a difference in favour of behavioural activation of –15.79 (95% CI –24.55 to –7.02) on the Beck Depression Inventory–II and Work and Social Adjustment Scale (mean difference –11.12, 95% CI –17.53 to –4.70).

Effective behavioural activation appears suitable for delivery by generic mental health professionals without previous experience as therapists. Large-scale trial comparisons with an active comparator (CBT) are needed.