Effective management of uncertainty can lead to better, more informed decisions. However, many decision makers and their advisers do not always face up to uncertainty, in part because there is little constructive guidance or tools available to help. This paper outlines six Uncertainty Principles to manage uncertainty.

• Face up to uncertainty

• Deconstruct the problem

• Don’t be fooled (un/intentional biases)

• Models can be helpful, but also dangerous

• Think about adaptability and resilience

• Bring people with you

Since David Raup's seminal 1976 work, paleontologists have been aware of the relationship between outcrop area and diversity. By incorporating lithologic data derived from Alexander Ronov and coworkers into our own data on areas of mapped outcrops from worldwide geologic maps, we are able to establish a quantitative connection between area of sedimentary rock exposure and diversity from the same general depositional environments. Significant power-law relations are observed at both global and continental scales of consideration. The addition of data on areas of habitable area estimated from paleogeographic maps does not substantially affect these correlations between outcrop area and diversity, indicating that the relation between outcrop area and diversity is primarily a function of sampling and not a common cause such as sea level. We observe a significant diversity-area effect, first noted by Jack Sepkoski in the marine realm. Unlike Sepkoski's, however, our diversity-area effect appears to play a substantial role in influencing diversity through time; a true global diversity signal appears to be contained in the rock record despite the impacts of variable sampling.

Greater outcrop area can serve to increase estimated diversity by increasing both the sample size and the range of habitats and biogeographic provinces sampled. After standardizing for pure sampling intensity by rarefying the number of taxon occurrences, outcrop area continues to explain a substantial portion of global marine diversity. This indicates that coverage, or sampling from multiple habitats and biogeographic provinces, is even more important than sampling intensity. If we remove the effect of outcrop area from our estimate of global biodiversity, we do not observe a net increase in diversity toward the present, lending support to other studies that have not supported a substantial, long-term global increase in biodiversity during the Phanerozoic.

This article represents a systematic effort to answer the question, What are archaeology’s most important scientific challenges? Starting with a crowd-sourced query directed broadly to the professional community of archaeologists, the authors augmented, prioritized, and refined the responses during a two-day workshop focused specifically on this question. The resulting 25 “grand challenges” focus on dynamic cultural processes and the operation of coupled human and natural systems. We organize these challenges into five topics: (1) emergence, communities, and complexity; (2) resilience, persistence, transformation, and collapse; (3) movement, mobility, and migration; (4) cognition, behavior, and identity; and (5) human-environment interactions. A discussion and a brief list of references accompany each question. An important goal in identifying these challenges is to inform decisions on infrastructure investments for archaeology. Our premise is that the highest priority investments should enable us to address the most important questions. Addressing many of these challenges will require both sophisticated modeling and large-scale synthetic research that are only now becoming possible. Although new archaeological fieldwork will be essential, the greatest pay off will derive from investments that provide sophisticated research access to the explosion in systematically collected archaeological data that has occurred over the last several decades.

In order to elucidate the effect of ceftriaxone therapy on the morphology of gut microflora, 11 human volunteers were treated with ceftriaxone, 1 g daily, given intramuscularly in one dose. Treatment continued for 5 days. Faecal microflora was analysed by digital image processing before, during and after the treatment period.

We derived simple numerical parameters which describe the morphologic composition of the flora. They were significantly influenced by the antibiotic, and returned to their baseline values more than 7 days after treatment was stopped. The procedure holds promise for clinical application.

African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in the Eastern Province of Zambia since 1912 and is now considered to be enzootic there. A survey of the distribution of ASF virus in Zambia was carried out by virus isolation from Ornithodoros moubata ticks collected from animal burrows in National Parks and Game Management Areas in northern, eastern, central and southern Zambia. ASF virus was isolated from ticks in all areas examined. The prevalence of infection in O. moubata was between 0·4% in South Luangwa National Park and 5·1% in Livingstone Game Park and mean infectious virus titres ranged from 103–4 HAD50/tick in Kakumbe Game Management Area to 105·9 HAD50/tick in Chunga and Nalusanga Game Management Areas. The prevalence of infection in adult ticks was between 4·7% and 5·3% in all areas examined except Sumbu National Park and Livingstone Game Park, where the prevalence was 15·1% and 13·2% respectively in adult ticks. The ratio of infected females to males for all the infected adult ticks in all areas of Zambia was 3·2:1.

Digital image processing (DIP) of bacterial smears is a new method of analysing the composition of the gut microbial flora. This method provides the opportunity to compare and evaluate differences in the complex highly concentrated anaerobic fraction of gut microbial flora, based on micromorphological differences. There is ample evidence that this fraction can be characterized as related or unrelated to the host organism by its immunogenicity. In this study germfree ND2 mice were associated with either related (rodent) SPF microflora (SPF-MF) or unrelated human MF (HUM-MF). DIP analysis was performed on original SPF-MF and HUM-MF and on the faeces of ex-germfree mice 4 weeks after association. The micromorphological pattern of highly concentrated anaerobic bacteria in faeces of HUM-MF associated ex-germfree mice was significantly different from SPF-MF associated counterparts with regard to the scores for elongation (P < 0·01) and morphological variety (P < 0·05). Moreover, gross morphological variability was present between individual HUM-MF associated mice but not between individual SPF-MF associated animals. No differences were found between original SPF and HUM-MF. The data are discussed with regard to differences in the presence of (non-)immunogenic bacteria and the ability for related and unrelated flora to colonize the murine gut. This study provides evidence that murine host specificity of microbial flora may not only be reflected in the number of non-immunogenic bacteria but also in the micromorphological pattern of highly concentrated anaerobic bacteria in faeces measured by DIP analysis.

The use of polyclonal antibodies in differentiating between samples of faecal microflora derived from ten healthy volunteers was assessed. The distribution of FITC-labelled antibodies (of the IgA, IgG and IgM isotype) over 144 morphologically distinct subsets of faecal bacteria (‘morphotypes’) was quantified by means of digital morphometry and quantitative immunofluorescence. Furthermore, a new dataprocessing algorithm was developed which makes objective quantitation of the antibody distributions over the faecal morphotypes possible. The results of this study imply that the antibody binding capacity of faecal morphotypes is a unique characteristic of faecal microflora.

A new technique to study the prevalence of circulating antibodies directed against different morphological groups (‘morphotypes’) of bacteria in fresh faeces is presented. The technique combines quantitative indirect immunofluorescence with digital image analysis. Plasma antibody titres and patterns of IgA, IgG and IgM isotype against morphotypes of faecal bacteria were determined in ten healthy individuals.

In this chapter we summarize the available data on a novel class of ligand-gated anion channels that are gated by the neurotransmitter glutamate. Glutamate is classically thought to be a stimulatory neurotransmitter, however, studies in invertebrates have proven that glutamate also functions as an inhibitory ligand. The bulk of studies conducted in vivo have been on insects and crustaceans, where glutamate was first postulated to act on H-receptors resulting in a hyperpolarizing response to glutamate. Recently, glutamate-gated chloride channels have been cloned from several nematodes and Drosophila. The pharmacology and electrophysiological properties of these channels have been studied by expression in Xenopus oocytes. Studies on the cloned channels demonstrate that the invertebrate glutamate-gated chloride channels are the H-receptors and represent important targets for the antiparasitic avermectins.

A long cropmark enclosure at Springfield, Essex, interpreted as a Neolithic cursus, was investigated betwee 1979–85 to confirm its date and establish a site sequence. The enclosure was c. 690 m long and 37–49 m wide the ditch being uninterrupted in all areas examined, features within the interior at the eastern end included a incomplete ring of substantial post-pits which it is suggested originally formed a complete circle. Peterborou pottery, predominately Mortlake style, Grooved Ware, a small amount of Beaker pottery, earlier Bronze Age urn sherds, and flint artefacts of the late 3rd-early 2nd millennium were recovered from the cursus ditch an other features. Collectively the evidence indicates a prolonged period of use. The results of the excavations a described, the site is discussed in its local and regional context and the implications of the excavation for our understanding of cursus monuments are considered.

Three fundamentally different methods were used to fabricate nanometric surface features on polymers or fused silica. Phase separation of binary polymer mixes resulted in randomly distributed features whose depth and shape could be tightly controlled over large areas. Colloidal resist patterned large areas randomly and uniformly with very fine spikes. In contrast e-beam and reactive ion etching were used to create a set of regular spaced pillars on an orthogonal pattern. Some of the surfaces were replicated by in situ polymerization, solvent casting, embossing or melt molding onto polystyrene (PS) or ε–poly caprolactone (ε–PCL). Nanometric features down to 60nm were imprinted onto the polymers with high fidelity. Cells were seeded onto the nanometric surfaces and adhesion, morphology and cytoskeleton investigated. Cells respond to regular features of 170/80nm (width/depth) with reduced adhesion and changes in overall morphology and cytoskeleton. Small nanofeatures (13nm, 35nm depth) made by phase separation on the other hand increased adhesion and promoted cytoskeletal differentiation. The responses of the cells are indicative that nanometric surface features are useful modifications on scaffolds for tissue engineering or on medical implants.