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In September 2023, the UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA) South West Health Protection Team received notification of patients with Pseudomonas aeruginosa perichondritis. All five cases had attended the same cosmetic piercing studio and a multi-disciplinary outbreak control investigation was subsequently initiated. An additional five cases attending the same studio were found. Seven of the ten cases had isolates available for Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) typing at the UKHSA national reference laboratory. Clinical and environmental P. aeruginosa isolates from the patients, handwash sink, tap water and throughout the wall-mounted point-of-use water heater (including outlet water) were indistinguishable by VNTR typing (11,6,2,2,1,3,6,3,11). No additional cases were identified after control measures were implemented, which included replacing the sink and point-of-use heater.
The lack of specific recommendations to control for P. aeruginosa within Council-adopted ear-piercing byelaws or national guidance means that a cosmetic piercing artist could inadvertently overlook the risks from this bacterial pathogen despite every intention to comply with the law and follow industry best practice advice. Clinicians, Environmental Health Officers and public health professionals should remain alert for single cases of Pseudomonas perichondritis infections associated with piercings and have a low threshold for notification to local health protection teams.
To explore the meanings that newly arrived refugee adolescents residing in the Southeastern USA attribute to foods.
Design:
We used methods from cognitive anthropology to assess whether adolescents from different countries share a cultural model of eating behaviours.
Setting:
A school-based study in a community in the Southeastern USA.
Participants:
Adolescents (10–17 years) who arrived in the USA on a refugee visa in the previous year.
Results:
Adolescents showed consensus in grouping items and in identifying some foods as associated with adults and others with children. There was evidence of a shared model of eating practices across age, gender and number of siblings. Adolescents who had lived in a refugee camp were significantly different in how they grouped items.
Conclusions:
Adolescents from nine countries shared a model of eating behaviours; these patterns are consistent with rapid dietary acculturation within 1 year of arrival or with shared models held from pre-arrival. Our finding that adolescents who recently arrived in the USA generally agree about how foods relate to one another holds promise for generalised nutrition and dietary interventions across diverse adolescent groups.
The psychometric rigor of unsupervised, smartphone-based assessments and factors that impact remote protocol engagement is critical to evaluate prior to the use of such methods in clinical contexts. We evaluated the validity of a high-frequency, smartphone-based cognitive assessment protocol, including examining convergence and divergence with standard cognitive tests, and investigating factors that may impact adherence and performance (i.e., time of day and anticipated receipt of feedback vs. no feedback).
Methods:
Cognitively unimpaired participants (N = 120, Mage = 68.8, 68.3% female, 87% White, Meducation = 16.5 years) completed 8 consecutive days of the Mobile Monitoring of Cognitive Change (M2C2), a mobile app-based testing platform, with brief morning, afternoon, and evening sessions. Tasks included measures of working memory, processing speed, and episodic memory. Traditional neuropsychological assessments included measures from the Preclinical Alzheimer’s Cognitive Composite battery.
Results:
Findings showed overall high compliance (89.3%) across M2C2 sessions. Average compliance by time of day ranged from 90.2% for morning sessions, to 77.9% for afternoon sessions, and 84.4% for evening sessions. There was evidence of faster reaction time and among participants who expected to receive performance feedback. We observed excellent convergent and divergent validity in our comparison of M2C2 tasks and traditional neuropsychological assessments.
Conclusions:
This study supports the validity and reliability of self-administered, high-frequency cognitive assessment via smartphones in older adults. Insights into factors affecting adherence, performance, and protocol implementation are discussed.
The atrial switch procedure by Senning or Mustard technique primarily aims in correcting parallel systemic and pulmonary circulations at atrial level. This procedure may be used in late presenting D-transposition of great arteries with a deconditioned left ventricle, congenitally corrected transposition of great arteries and isolated ventricular inversion. We describe the case of a child with dextrocardia, left atrial isomerism with complex pulmonary and systemic venous drainage resulting in mixing at atrial level. She was successfully operated by modified Senning procedure performed through the left-sided atrium.
Aviation passenger screening has been used worldwide to mitigate the translocation risk of SARS-CoV-2. We present a model that evaluates factors in screening strategies used in air travel and assess their relative sensitivity and importance in identifying infectious passengers. We use adapted Monte Carlo simulations to produce hypothetical disease timelines for the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 for travelling passengers. Screening strategy factors assessed include having one or two RT-PCR and/or antigen tests prior to departure and/or post-arrival, and quarantine length and compliance upon arrival. One or more post-arrival tests and high quarantine compliance were the most important factors in reducing pathogen translocation. Screening that combines quarantine and post-arrival testing can shorten the length of quarantine for travelers, and variability and mean testing sensitivity in post-arrival RT-PCR and antigen tests decrease and increase with the greater time between the first and second post-arrival test, respectively. This study provides insight into the role various screening strategy factors have in preventing the translocation of infectious diseases and a flexible framework adaptable to other existing or emerging diseases. Such findings may help in public health policy and decision-making in present and future evidence-based practices for passenger screening and pandemic preparedness.
Gestational diabetes is treated with medical nutrition therapy, delivered by healthcare professionals; however, the optimal diet for affected women is unknown. Randomised controlled trials, such as the DiGest (Dietary Intervention in Gestational Diabetes) trial, will address this knowledge gap, but the acceptability of whole-diet interventions in pregnancy is unclear. Whole-diet approaches reduce bias but require high levels of participant commitment and long intervention periods to generate meaningful clinical outcomes. We aimed to assess healthcare professionals’ views on the acceptability of the DiGest dietbox intervention for women with gestational diabetes and to identify any barriers to adherence which could be addressed to support good recruitment and retention to the DiGest trial. Female healthcare professionals (n 16) were randomly allocated to receive a DiGest dietbox containing 1200 or 2000 kcal/d including at least one weeks’ food. A semi-structured interview was conducted to explore participants’ experience of the intervention. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed thematically using NVivo software. Based on the findings of qualitative interviews, modifications were made to the dietboxes. Participants found the dietboxes convenient and enjoyed the variety and taste of the meals. Factors which facilitated adherence included participants having a good understanding of study aims and sufficient organisational skills to facilitate weekly meal planning in advance. Barriers to adherence included peer pressure during social occasions and feelings of deprivation or hunger (affecting both standard and reduced calorie groups). Healthcare professionals considered random allocation to a whole-diet replacement intervention to be acceptable and feasible in a clinical environment and offered benefits to participants including convenience.
This national pre-pandemic survey compared demand and capacity of adult community eating disorder services (ACEDS) with NHS England (NHSE) commissioning guidance.
Results
Thirteen services in England and Scotland responded (covering 10.7 million population). Between 2016–2017 and 2019–2020 mean referral rates increased by 18.8%, from 378 to 449/million population. Only 3.7% of referrals were from child and adolescent eating disorder services (CEDS-CYP), but 46% of patients were aged 18–25 and 54% were aged >25. Most ACEDS had waiting lists and rationed access. Many could not provide full medical monitoring, adapt treatment for comorbidities, offer assertive outreach or provide seamless transitions. For patient volume, the ACEDS workforce budget was 15%, compared with the NHSE workforce calculator recommendations for CEDS-CYP. Parity required £7 million investment/million population for the ACEDS.
Clinical implications
This study highlights the severe pressure in ACEDS, which has increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. Substantial investment is required to ensure NHS ACEDS meet national guidance, offer evidence-based treatment, reduce risk and preventable deaths, and achieve parity with CEDS-CYP.
In STAR*D, following non-remission with an SSRI, remission rates for second-line treatments were ~ 25%, regardless of the switch strategy employed. Antidepressants with novel mechanisms may improve outcomes in MDD. AXS-05 (dextromethorphan HBr 45 mg- bupropion HCl 105 mg) is a novel, oral, investigational, NMDA receptor antagonist with multimodal activity. The dextromethorphan component of AXS-05 is an NMDA receptor antagonist and a sigma-1 receptor agonist. The bupropion component of AXS-05 serves primarily to increase the bioavailability of dextromethorphan.
Methods
EVOLVE was an open-label study, in which patients were treated with AXS-05 twice daily for up to 15 months. Subjects had either rolled in after a prior AXS-05 study or were directly enrolled and had a DSM-5 diagnosis of MDD, a MADRS score of ≥25, and had been treated with ≥1 antidepressant in the current major depressive episode (MDE). A total of 186 patients were enrolled. Here we present the results for the directly enrolled patients (n =146).
Results
Mean change in MADRS total score from a baseline of 32.2 were -9.1±7.64, -13.3±8.58, and -20.4±7.79 points at Weeks 1, 2, and 6, respectively (p< 0.001 for all). Remission (MADRS ≤10) was achieved by 5.7%, 16.2%, and 46.0% of patients at Weeks 1, 2, and 6, respectively. Improvement in functioning, measured by the SDS, was seen starting at Week 1 (p < 0.001). Improvements in MADRS and SDS were sustained at Month 12.
Long-term treatment with AXS-05 was generally well tolerated. The most commonly reported adverse events were COVID-19 infection (8.9%), nausea (8.9%), headache (7.5%), dry mouth (6.2%), insomnia (5.5%), and dizziness (5.5%).
Conclusions
AXS-05 improved depression and functioning in patients who failed one prior antidepressant in the current MDE.
Innovative therapies to treat individuals with MDD, especially those with comorbid anxiety, are urgently needed.
AXS-05 (dextromethorphan HBr 45 mg-bupropion HCl 105 mg) is a novel, oral, investigational NMDA receptor antagonist with multimodal activity. The dextromethorphan component of AXS-05 is an NMDA receptor antagonist and a sigma-1 receptor agonist. The bupropion component of AXS-05 serves primarily to increase the bioavailability of dextromethorphan.
Objective
To evaluate the effects of AXS-05 on anxiety in MDD.
Methods
EVOLVE was an open-label study, in which patients were treated with AXS-05 twice daily for up to 15 months. Subjects had either rolled in after a prior AXS-05 study or were directly enrolled and had a DSM-5 diagnosis of MDD, a MADRS score of ≥25, and had been treated with ≥ 1 antidepressant in the current major depressive episode. A total of 186 patients were enrolled. Efficacy endpoints included MADRS and HAM-A. Here we present the results for the directly enrolled patients (n =146).
Results
Mean baseline HAM-A scores were 15.6. Reductions from baseline to Weeks 1, 2, and 6 were 3.4±5.34 (p< 0.001), 5.5±5.81 (p< 0.001), and 8.6±5.75 (p< 0.001), respectively. Improvements on the HAM-A were durable through Month 12 (-10.2±6.33; p< 0.001). Remission (HAM-A ≤7) rates on the HAM-A at Weeks 1, 2, and 6 were 19.9%, 36.0%, and 58.1%, respectively. Remission at Month 12 was 78.3%.
Long-term treatment with AXS-05 was generally well tolerated. The most commonly reported adverse events were COVID-19 infection (8.9%), nausea (8.9%), headache (7.5%), dry mouth (6.2%), insomnia (5.5%), and dizziness (5.5%).
Conclusions
These data support the use of AXS-05 in patients with comorbid depression and anxiety.
AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion) is a novel, oral, investigational, NMDA receptor antagonist with multimodal activity being developed for MDD. The dextromethorphan component of AXS-05 is an NMDA receptor antagonist and a sigma-1 receptor agonist. The bupropion component of AXS-05 serves primarily to increase the bioavailability of dextromethorphan.
Methods
AXS-05 was evaluated in two double-blind, randomized, controlled, 6-week trials. The GEMINI trial (N=327) was placebo-controlled and the ASCEND trial (N=80) used bupropion as the control. Here we focus on efficacy in the first 2 weeks of treatment and present a pooled analysis of the individual items of the MADRS for AXS-05 as compared to control.
Results
In GEMINI, starting at Week 1, AXS 05 was superior (p < 0.05) to placebo on: mean MADRS improvement (7.3 vs. 4.9), MADRS response (15% vs. 7%), CGI-I (22% vs. 13%), CGI-S (0.7 vs. 0.4) and Q-LES-Q-SF (9.0% vs. 5.8%). At Week 2, AXS-05 was also statistically superior to placebo on MADRS remission (17% vs.8%) and on the SDS (6.8 vs. 4.5).
In ASCEND, from Week 2, AXS-05 was superior (p< 0.05) to bupropion on: mean MADRS improvement (12.5vs. 7.8), MADRS remission (26% vs. 3%), and CGI-S (1.41 vs. 0.9).
At Week 1, treatment with AXS-05 resulted in greater improvements (p< 0.05) in reported sadness, inner tension, inability to feel, pessimistic thoughts, and suicidal thoughts, as compared to control. At Week 6, AXS-05 demonstrated significant improvements over control on seven of the ten MADRS items.
In the GEMINI trial, the most commonly reported adverse events were dizziness, nausea, headache, diarrhea, somnolence, and dry mouth.
Conclusions
Treatment with AXS-05 resulted in rapid and broad antidepressant efficacy.
Treatments for MDD that can improve both overall depressive and anhedonic symptoms are urgently needed.
AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion) is a novel, oral, investigational NMDA receptor antagonist with multimodal activity being developed for MDD. The dextromethorphan component of AXS-05 is an NMDA receptor antagonist and a sigma-1 receptor agonist. The bupropion component of AXS-05 serves primarily to increase the bioavailability of dextromethorphan.
Objective
To evaluate the effect of AXS-05 in improving anhedonic symptoms in MDD.
Methods
GEMINI (N=327) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 6-week study, which randomized adults with MDD to AXS-05 (dextromethorphan HBr 45 mg- bupropion HCl 105 mg) or placebo, twice daily. The primary endpoint was change from baseline in the MADRS total score at Week 6. A post-hoc analysis was conducted to determine the impact of AXS-05 versus placebo on the 5-item MADRS anhedonia subscale (MAS).
Results
Baseline MAS scores were 19.8 and 19.6 in the AXS-05 and placebo group, respectively. At Week 1, AXS-05 treatment resulted in a significant mean reduction from baseline in the MAS score of 4.44 versus 2.69 points for placebo (p< 0.001). At Week 6, the mean reduction from baseline in the MAS was 9.70 for AXS-05 compared to 7.22 for placebo (p=0.001). Response rates (≥ 50% MAS improvement) were significantly greater for AXS-05 compared to placebo at Week 1 (p< 0.001) and at every time point thereafter.
Treatment with AXS-05 was generally safe and well tolerated. The most common adverse events being dizziness, nausea, headache, diarrhea, somnolence, and dry mouth.
Conclusions
Treatment with AXS-05 rapidly and significantly reduced anhedonic symptoms as well as overall depressive symptoms.
Surveillance of non–ventilator-associated hospital-acquired pneumonia (NV-HAP) is complicated by subjectivity and variability in diagnosing pneumonia. We compared a fully automatable surveillance definition using routine electronic health record data to manual determinations of NV-HAP according to surveillance criteria and clinical diagnoses.
Methods:
We retrospectively applied an electronic surveillance definition for NV-HAP to all adults admitted to Veterans’ Affairs (VA) hospitals from January 1, 2015, to November 30, 2020. We randomly selected 250 hospitalizations meeting NV-HAP surveillance criteria for independent review by 2 clinicians and calculated the percent of hospitalizations with (1) clinical deterioration, (2) CDC National Healthcare Safety Network (CDC-NHSN) criteria, (3) NV-HAP according to a reviewer, (4) NV-HAP according to a treating clinician, (5) pneumonia diagnosis in discharge summary; and (6) discharge diagnosis codes for HAP. We assessed interrater reliability by calculating simple agreement and the Cohen κ (kappa).
Results:
Among 3.1 million hospitalizations, 14,023 met NV-HAP electronic surveillance criteria. Among reviewed cases, 98% had a confirmed clinical deterioration; 67% met CDC-NHSN criteria; 71% had NV-HAP according to a reviewer; 60% had NV-HAP according to a treating clinician; 49% had a discharge summary diagnosis of pneumonia; and 82% had NV-HAP according to any definition according to at least 1 reviewer. Only 8% had diagnosis codes for HAP. Interrater agreement was 75% (κ = 0.50) for CDC-NHSN criteria and 78% (κ = 0.55) for reviewer diagnosis of NV-HAP.
Conclusions:
Electronic NV-HAP surveillance criteria correlated moderately with existing manual surveillance criteria. Reviewer variability for all manual assessments was high. Electronic surveillance using clinical data may therefore allow for more consistent and efficient surveillance with similar accuracy compared to manual assessments or diagnosis codes.
The cornerstone of obesity treatment is behavioural weight management, resulting in significant improvements in cardio-metabolic and psychosocial health. However, there is ongoing concern that dietary interventions used for weight management may precipitate the development of eating disorders. Systematic reviews demonstrate that, while for most participants medically supervised obesity treatment improves risk scores related to eating disorders, a subset of people who undergo obesity treatment may have poor outcomes for eating disorders. This review summarises the background and rationale for the formation of the Eating Disorders In weight-related Therapy (EDIT) Collaboration. The EDIT Collaboration will explore the complex risk factor interactions that precede changes to eating disorder risk following weight management. In this review, we also outline the programme of work and design of studies for the EDIT Collaboration, including expected knowledge gains. The EDIT studies explore risk factors and the interactions between them using individual-level data from international weight management trials. Combining all available data on eating disorder risk from weight management trials will allow sufficient sample size to interrogate our hypothesis: that individuals undertaking weight management interventions will vary in their eating disorder risk profile, on the basis of personal characteristics and intervention strategies available to them. The collaboration includes the integration of health consumers in project development and translation. An important knowledge gain from this project is a comprehensive understanding of the impact of weight management interventions on eating disorder risk.
Reward processing has been proposed to underpin the atypical social feature of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous neuroimaging studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the specificity of atypicalities for social reward processing in ASD.
Aims
Utilising a large sample, we aimed to assess reward processing in response to reward type (social, monetary) and reward phase (anticipation, delivery) in ASD.
Method
Functional magnetic resonance imaging during social and monetary reward anticipation and delivery was performed in 212 individuals with ASD (7.6–30.6 years of age) and 181 typically developing participants (7.6–30.8 years of age).
Results
Across social and monetary reward anticipation, whole-brain analyses showed hypoactivation of the right ventral striatum in participants with ASD compared with typically developing participants. Further, region of interest analysis across both reward types yielded ASD-related hypoactivation in both the left and right ventral striatum. Across delivery of social and monetary reward, hyperactivation of the ventral striatum in individuals with ASD did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Dimensional analyses of autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) scores were not significant. In categorical analyses, post hoc comparisons showed that ASD effects were most pronounced in participants with ASD without co-occurring ADHD.
Conclusions
Our results do not support current theories linking atypical social interaction in ASD to specific alterations in social reward processing. Instead, they point towards a generalised hypoactivity of ventral striatum in ASD during anticipation of both social and monetary rewards. We suggest this indicates attenuated reward seeking in ASD independent of social content and that elevated ADHD symptoms may attenuate altered reward seeking in ASD.
Hospice patients and caregivers who are members of sexual and gender minority groups (i.e., LGBTQ+) have reported experiencing unmet needs at end of life (EOL). Negative experiences often stem from challenging interactions with healthcare providers due to ineffective or poor communication and providers’ heteronormative assumptions and biases. Few studies, however, examine hospice care team (HCT) providers’ knowledge, experience, and opinions related to EOL care for LGBTQ+ patients and caregivers despite this being identified as a gap in competency and education. We sought to examine HCT providers’ perceptions regarding (1) awareness of LGBTQ+ patients and caregivers; (2) knowledge of specific or unique needs; and (3) opinions on best care and communication practices.
Methods
Six focus groups conducted with HCT providers (n = 48) currently delivering hospice care in three US states were audio-recorded and transcribed. Data were content coded (κ = 0.77), aggregated by topical categories, and descriptively summarized.
Results
Participants were mostly white and non-Hispanic (n = 43, 89.6%), cisgender female (n = 42, 87.5%), heterosexual (n = 35, 72.9%), and religious (n = 33, 68.8%); they averaged 49 years of age (range 26–72, SD = 11.66). Awareness of LGBTQ+ patients and caregivers depended on patient or caregiver self-disclosure and contextual cues; orientation and gender identity data were not routinely collected. Many viewed being LGBTQ+ as private, irrelevant to care, and not a basis for people having specific or unique EOL needs because they saw EOL processes as universal, and believed that they treat everyone equally. Providers were more comfortable with patients of lesbian or gay orientation and reported less comfort and limited experience caring for transgender and gender-diverse patients or caregivers.
Significance of results
Many HCT members were unaware of specific issues impacting the EOL experiences of LGBTQ+ patients and caregivers, or how these experiences may inform important care and communication needs at EOL.
Bipedal locomotion is a hallmark of being human. Yet the body form from which bipedalism evolved remains unclear. Specifically, the positional behaviour (i.e. orthograde vs. pronograde) and the length of the lumbar spine (i.e. long and mobile vs. short and stiff) of the last common ancestor (LCA) of the African great apes and humans require further investigation. While fossil evidence would be the most conclusive, the paucity of hominid fossils from 5–10 million years ago makes this field of research challenging. In their absence, extant primate anatomy and behaviour may offer some insight into the ancestral body form from which bipedalism could most easily evolve. Here, we quantify the frequency of bipedalism in a large sample (N = 496) of zoo-housed hominoids and cercopithecines. Our results show that while each studied species of ape and monkey can move bipedally, hylobatids are significantly more bipedal and engage in bipedal locomotion more frequently and for greater distances than any other primate sampled. These data support hypotheses of an orthograde, long-backed and arboreal LCA, which is consistent with hominoid fossils from the middle-to-late Miocene. If true, knuckle-walking evolved in parallel in Pan and Gorilla, and the human body form, particularly the long lower back and orthograde posture, is conserved.
This document is part of the “SHEA Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) White Paper Series.” It is intended to provide practical, expert opinion, and/or evidence-based answers to frequently asked questions about CLABSI detection and prevention in the NICU. This document serves as a companion to the CDC Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC) Guideline for Prevention of Infections in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Patients. Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) are among the most frequent invasive infections among infants in the NICU and contribute to substantial morbidity and mortality. Infants who survive CLABSIs have prolonged hospitalization resulting in increased healthcare costs and suffer greater comorbidities including worse neurodevelopmental and growth outcomes. A bundled approach to central line care practices in the NICU has reduced CLABSI rates, but challenges remain. This document was authored by pediatric infectious diseases specialists, neonatologists, advanced practice nurse practitioners, infection preventionists, members of the HICPAC guideline-writing panel, and members of the SHEA Pediatric Leadership Council. For the selected topic areas, the authors provide practical approaches in question-and-answer format, with answers based on consensus expert opinion within the context of the literature search conducted for the companion HICPAC document and supplemented by other published information retrieved by the authors. Two documents in the series precede this one: “Practical approaches to Clostridioides difficile prevention” published in August 2018 and “Practical approaches to Staphylococcus aureus prevention,” published in September 2020.
This book uses innovative research methods to examine why so many people fail to travel in ways that are deemed by most to be desirable - on foot or by bike. It proposes evidence-based policy solutions that could increase levels of walking and cycling substantially.
Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, public-health decision makers have increasingly relied on hospitalization forecasts that are routinely provided, accurate, and based on timely input data to inform pandemic planning. In North Carolina, we adapted an existing agent-based model (ABM) to produce 30-day hospitalization forecasts of COVID-19 and non–COVID-19 hospitalizations for use by public-health decision makers. We sought to continually improve model speed and accuracy during forecasting. Methods: The geospatially explicit ABM included movement of agents (ie, patients) among 104 short-term acute-care hospitals, 10 long-term acute-care hospitals, 421 licensed nursing homes, and the community in North Carolina. Agents were based on a synthetic population of North Carolina residents (ie, >10.4 million agents). We assigned SARS-CoV-2 infections to agents according to county-level susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) models informed by reported COVID-19 cases by county. Agents’ COVID-19 severity and probability of hospitalization were determined using agent-specific characteristics (eg, age, comorbidities). During May 2020–December 2020, we produced weekly 30-day forecasts of intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU bed occupancy for COVID-19 agents and non–COVID-19 agents statewide and by region under a range of SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction numbers. During the reporting period, we identified optimizations for faster results turnaround. We evaluated the incorporation of real-time hospital-level occupancy data at model initialization on forecast accuracy using mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Results: During May 2020–December 2020, we provided 31 weekly reports of 30-day hospitalization forecasts with a 1-day turnaround time. Reports included (1) raw and smoothed 7-day average values for 42 model output variables; (2) static visuals of ICU and non-ICU bed demand and capacity; and (3) an interactive Tableau workbook of hospital demand variables. Identifying code efficiencies reduced a single model runtime from ~100 seconds to 28 seconds. The use of cloud computing reduced simulation runtime from ~20 hours to 15 minutes. Across forecasts, the average MAPEs were 21.6% and 7.1% for ICU and non-ICU bed demand, respectively. By incorporating hospital-level occupancy data, we reduced the average MAPE to 6.5% for ICU bed demand and 3.9% for non-ICU bed demand, indicating improved accuracy. Conclusions: We adapted an ABM and continually improved it during COVID-19 forecasting by optimizing code and computing resources and including real-time hospital-level occupancy data. Planned SEIR model updates for enhanced forecasts include the addition of compartments for undocumented infections and recoveries as well as permission of reinfection from recovered compartments.
An adequate intake of PUFA plays a vital role in human health. Therefore, it is important to assess PUFA intakes in different populations and validate them with biomarkers, but only a few small studies are in paediatric populations. We calculated the dietary intake of PUFA and their main food sources in children and assessed associations between PUFA intakes and plasma proportions. Dietary intakes of 7-year-old children (n 8242) enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were calculated from the parental-completed FFQ. Plasma PUFA were measured in 5571 children 8 months later, and 4380 children had complete dietary and plasma data. The association between dietary and plasma PUFA proportions was estimated using Spearman’s correlation coefficients, quintile cross-classification and Cohen’s κ coefficients. Mean total PUFA intake was 13·2 g/d (sd 4·2), contributing 6·5 % of total energy intake; n-6 PUFA contributed 5·2 % and n-3 PUFA 0·7 %. The n-6:n-3 ratio was 7·9:1. Mean intakes of EPA and DHA were 35·7 mg/d and 49·7 mg/d, respectively. Most n-3 and n-6 PUFA intakes were weakly correlated with their respective plasma lipids (0·07 ≤ r ≤ 0·16, P < 0·001). The correlation between dietary and plasma DHA was stronger though (r = 0·34, P < 0·001), supported by a modest level of agreement between quintiles (k = 0·32). The results indicate that the FFQ was able to reasonably rank the long-chain (LC) PUFA, DHA, in this paediatric population. Public health initiatives need to address the suboptimal ratio of n-6:n-3 PUFA and very low n-3 LC-PUFA intakes in school-age children in the UK.