We look at the effect of the WTO on stabilizing international trade using both a fixed-effects and an event study approach. Our results show that WTO members experience lower trade volatilties in a predictable and integrated system. In addition, we focus on the trade volatility comovement among countries in a multilateral framework. Previous research has mainly focused on WTO membership in a bilateral trade framework, which only allows interactions between two trade partners without considering any possible influence from other countries. A bilateral trade framework does not fully capture the effect of WTO membership, nor does it investigate why the multilateral platform of the WTO should exist. With a unique setup estimating interactions among multiple trading dyads, we find strong evidence supporting positive correlation or comovement of trade volatilities across trading pairs. Such a comovement appears much stronger among WTO members than between WTO and non-WTO members. Due to the feedback mechanism among dyads in a multilateral framework, such as the WTO, bilateral trade stability may further stabilize the global trade. Our results remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Understanding dietary patterns and nutrient intakes of the aging population may help address concerns and dietary guidelines regarding their nutritional needs. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The objective of this study is to test the hypothesis that a healthy dietary pattern in the oldest old (aged 80 years and older) is related to greater compliance with dietary recommendations and better nutrient intake profiles. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 122 participants aged 82 to 97 years old from the Geisinger Rural Aging Study (GRAS) cohort in rural Pennsylvania (n = 56 men and 66 women). The main outcome measures of the investigation were the daily nutrient intakes and food group intakes evaluated from the average of three 24-hour dietary recalls. The dietary patterns were determined by cluster analysis from 28 food groups. Diet quality and adherence to the Dietary Guidelines for Americans was assessed by the Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015 and the Dietary Screening Tool (DST). Recommended intakes were determined by the Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs) or Adequate Intakes (AIs). RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Less than 50% of participants met the dietary recommended intakes for vitamins D, E, K, B6, dietary fiber, zinc, potassium, and calcium. The more-nutrient-dense cluster was characterized by higher intakes of fruits and vegetables. The less-nutrient-dense cluster was characterized by higher intakes of foods including desserts and sweets. After adjusting for age, sex, and energy intake, participants in the more-nutrient-dense dietary pattern had a higher intake of vitamins A, D, K, C, fiber, and potassium (p < 0.05 for all). After adjusting for age and sex, participants in the more-nutrient-dense pattern had better diet quality assessed by the (HEI)-2015 (p < 0.001) and DST (p = 0.006). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Among the oldest old, many participants were found to have nutrient intakes lower than the recommended levels for fundamental nutrients suggesting that dietary guidance in addition to a dietary pattern more aligned with dietary guidelines may be beneficial for supporting healthy aging.

To investigate the influences of dietary riboflavin (RF) addition on nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, eight rumen cannulated Holstein bulls were randomly allocated into four treatments in a repeated 4 × 4 Latin square design. Daily addition level of RF for each bull in control, low RF, medium RF and high RF was 0, 300, 600 and 900 mg, respectively. Increasing the addition level of RF, DM intake was not affected, average daily gain tended to be increased linearly and feed conversion ratio decreased linearly. Total tract digestibilities of DM, organic matter, crude protein (CP) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) increased linearly. Rumen pH decreased quadratically, and total volatile fatty acids (VFA) increased quadratically. Acetate molar percentage and acetate:propionate ratio increased linearly, but propionate molar percentage and ammonia-N content decreased linearly. Rumen effective degradability of DM increased linearly, NDF increased quadratically but CP was unaltered. Activity of cellulase and populations of total bacteria, protozoa, fungi, dominant cellulolytic bacteria, Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus increased linearly. Linear increase was observed for urinary total purine derivatives excretion. The data suggested that dietary RF addition was essential for rumen microbial growth, and no further increase in performance and rumen total VFA concentration was observed when increasing RF level from 600 to 900 mg/d in dairy bulls.

The aim of this study was to explore the frequency and distribution of gene mutations that are related to isoniazid (INH) and rifampin (RIF)-resistance in the strains of the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) in Beijing, China. In this retrospective study, the genotypes of 173 MDR-TB strains were analysed by spoligotyping. The katG, inhA genes and the promoter region of inhA, in which genetic mutations confer INH resistance; and the rpoB gene, in which genetic mutations confer RIF resistance, were sequenced. The percentage of resistance-associated nucleotide alterations among the strains of different genotypes was also analysed. In total, 90.8% (157/173) of the MDR strains belonged to the Beijing genotype. Population characteristics were not significantly different among the strains of different genotypes. In total, 50.3% (87/173) strains had mutations at codon S315T of katG; 16.8% (29/173) of strains had mutations in the inhA promoter region; of them, 5.5% (15/173) had point mutations at −15 base (C→T) of the inhA promoter region. In total, 86.7% (150/173) strains had mutations at rpoB gene; of them, 40% (69/173) strains had mutations at codon S531L of rpoB. The frequency of mutations was not significantly higher in Beijing genotypic MDR strains than in non-Beijing genotypes. Beijing genotypic MDR-TB strains were spreading in Beijing and present a major challenge to TB control in this region. A high prevalence of katG Ser315Thr, inhA promoter region (−15C→T) and rpoB (S531L) mutations was observed. Molecular diagnostics based on gene mutations was a useful method for rapid detection of MDR-TB in Beijing, China.

Laboratory experiments are conducted to investigate the mechanism controlling the formation of stable and unstable acoustic fountains at the free surface of a quiescent body of water. Fountains are induced by focused ultrasonic, a new modality that allows for better spatiotemporal control of water flow. Particle image velocimetry was used to characterize the induced flow field in the vicinity of the ultrasonic focal spot. We used two types of ultrasonic transducers with distinct wave frequencies. We examined three fountain formation regimes by varying the pressure level of the transducers, namely weak, intermediate (stable) and highly forced fountains (explosive). Between different regimes, the fountain height underwent a step-change in response to the increase in acoustic pressure. A force estimation obtained from the flow field shows that the magnitude of axial momentum flux is orders of magnitude lower than that of gravity and surface tension, indicating that the dominant driving force for the fountain generation is the acoustic radiation force (Nightingale et al., Ultrasound Med. Biol., vol. 28, 2002, pp. 227–235). We propose a simple model to estimate the shape of a stable fountain; it accounts for the applied acoustic pressure, gravity, surface tension and axial momentum. The model neglects viscous force, which precludes capturing the intermediate fountain surface curvature. However, the model successfully predicts the geometry of the weak and intermediate fountains.

Despite the numerous challenges of ageing in a foreign land, many older immigrants are fairly resilient and report experiencing good wellbeing. The key question that the present paper addresses is how this is achieved. Drawing on frameworks from cross-cultural and social identity literatures, the present study proposes and tests a model of serial multiple mediation that identifies possible mechanisms supporting the wellbeing of older immigrants who have resided in the host country for some time. In this model, it is predicted that new group memberships acquired post-migration enable access to social support that in turn provides the basis for perceived integration, which enhances wellbeing. This model was tested in a survey study with 102 older people, whose mean age was 80.3 years and who had migrated to Australia from Asian, European, and Central and South American countries on average 36 years previously. The survey assessed cultural identity, social group memberships acquired post-migration, perceived social support, perceived integration and wellbeing. Results supported the hypothesised model, indicating that joining new heritage culture and wider groups in Australia post-migration provided a platform for social support and integration, which enhanced life satisfaction and reduced loneliness. The implications of these findings for theory and adapting successfully to both migration and ageing are discussed.

Interception by plant canopies during wind dispersal can affect the final destination of diaspores. However, how the interaction of wind speed, canopy type and diaspore attributes affects interception of diaspores by the plant canopy has rarely been studied. We investigated canopy interception for 29 species with different diaspore attributes, six canopy types and six wind speeds in controlled experiments in a wind tunnel. Shrub canopy interception of diaspores were controlled by wind speed and diaspore attributes, but the latter had a greater influence on canopy interception than the former. At low wind speed, diaspore wing loading had a large influence on canopy interception, whereas at high wind speed, diaspore projection area had a large influence. The chance of canopy interception at a particular wind speed was additionally affected by the type of canopy. This study increases our knowledge of the dispersal process, corrects the previous understanding of diaspore dispersal potential and improves the theoretical basis for predicting spatial pattern and dynamics of plant populations.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

To evaluate the impacts of guanidinoacetic acid (GAA) and coated folic acid (CFA) on growth performance, nutrient digestion and hepatic gene expression, fifty-two Angus bulls were assigned to four groups in a 2 × 2 factor experimental design. The CFA of 0 or 6 mg/kg dietary DM folic acid was supplemented in diets with GAA of 0 (GAA−) or 0·6 g/kg DM (GAA+), respectively. Average daily gain (ADG), feed efficiency and hepatic creatine concentration increased with GAA or CFA addition, and the increased magnitude of these parameters was greater for addition of CFA in GAA− diets than in GAA+ diets. Blood creatine concentration increased with GAA or CFA addition, and greater increase was observed when CFA was supplemented in GAA+ diets than in GAA− diets. DM intake was unchanged, but rumen total SCFA concentration and digestibilities of DM, crude protein, neutral-detergent fibre and acid-detergent fibre increased with the addition of GAA or CFA. Acetate:propionate ratio was unaffected by GAA, but increased for CFA addition. Increase in blood concentrations of albumin, total protein and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) was observed for GAA or CFA addition. Blood folate concentration was decreased by GAA, but increased with CFA addition. Hepatic expressions of IGF-1, phosphoinositide 3-kinase, protein kinase B, mammalian target of rapamycin and ribosomal protein S6 kinase increased with GAA or CFA addition. Results indicated that the combined supplementation of GAA and CFA could not cause ADG increase more when compared with GAA or CFA addition alone.

A control volume based analytical method for calculating the efficiency $\eta$ of flapping foil power generators was developed for single and tandem foil configurations. Ignoring unsteady effects and non-uniform pressures resulted in theoretical limits identical to the Betz ( $\eta =16/27$ for a single turbine) and Newman ( $\eta =16/25$ for tandem turbines) limits. Inclusion of unsteady flow and non-uniform pressure distributions produced theoretical efficiency maxima in excess of these limits. Simulation of single and tandem foil cases to determine the magnitude of these effects showed that the Betz limit would not be exceeded by a single foil system in practice, but that it is conceivable that a tandem foil system could exceed the Newman limit due to the strong unsteady vortex wake of the upstream turbine entraining additional energy into the path of the downstream turbine and maintaining pressures in the wake below ambient.

Graphlet counting is a widely explored problem in network analysis and has been successfully applied to a variety of applications in many domains, most notatbly bioinformatics, social science, and infrastructure network studies. Efficiently computing graphlet counts remains challenging due to the combinatorial explosion, where a naive enumeration algorithm needs O(Nk) time for k-node graphlets in a network of size N. Recently, many works introduced carefully designed combinatorial and sampling methods with encouraging results. However, the existing methods ignore the fact that graphlet counts and the graph structural information are correlated. They always consider a graph as a new input and repeat the tedious counting procedure on a regular basis even if it is similar or exactly isomorphic to previously studied graphs. This provides an opportunity to speed up the graphlet count estimation procedure by exploiting this correlation via learning methods. In this paper, we raise a novel graphlet count learning (GCL) problem: given a set of historical graphs with known graphlet counts, how to learn to estimate/predict graphlet count for unseen graphs coming from the same (or similar) underlying distribution. We develop a deep learning framework which contains two convolutional neural network models and a series of data preprocessing techniques to solve the GCL problem. Extensive experiments are conducted on three types of synthetic random graphs and three types of real-world graphs for all 3-, 4-, and 5-node graphlets to demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency, and generalizability of our framework. Compared with state-of-the-art exact/sampling methods, our framework shows great potential, which can offer up to two orders of magnitude speedup on synthetic graphs and achieve on par speed on real-world graphs with competitive accuracy.

Dynamic soaring improves the endurance of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) by obtaining energy from the horizontal wind shear gradient. The use of dynamic soaring in small solar UAVs can mitigate the trade-off between energy capacity and battery weight to achieve continuous all-day flight. The goal of this study is to determine the optimal energy acquisition methods for small solar UAVs using dynamic soaring and to decrease the battery weight to achieve all-day flight. A dynamic soaring UAV model that considers the influence of the wind shear gradient and a solar power energy model are established. The conditions to obtain a closed-loop energy system during daytime and nighttime flights are discussed, and the minimum mass of the energy system required for these conditions is determined. Simulations of single-cycle circular flights and a 72-h continuous flight of a small solar UAV are performed. The analyses and simulation results show that: (1) the combination of dynamic soaring and solar technology significantly reduces the energy consumption and reduces the required battery weight, (2) the flight speed and flight attitude angles have significant effects on the optimal total energy acquisition and (3) wind fields with a large horizontal gradient and strong solar illumination provide energy and load advantages.

Coated copper sulphate (CCS) could be used as a Cu supplement in cows. To investigate the influences of copper sulphate (CS) and CCS on milk performance, nutrient digestion and rumen fermentation, fifty Holstein dairy cows were arranged in a randomised block design to five groups: control, CS addition (7·5 mg Cu/kg DM from CS) or CCS addition (5, 7·5 and 10 mg Cu/kg DM from CCS, respectively). When comparing Cu source at equal inclusion rates (7·5 mg/kg DM), cows receiving CCS addition had higher yields of fat-corrected milk, milk fat and protein; digestibility of DM, organic matter (OM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF); ruminal total volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentration; activities of carboxymethyl cellulase, cellobiase, pectinase and α-amylase; populations of Ruminococcus albus, Ruminococcus flavefaciens and Fibrobacter succinogenes; and liver Cu content than cows receiving CS addition. Increasing CCS addition, DM intake was unchanged, yields of milk, milk fat and protein; feed efficiency; digestibility of DM, OM, NDF and acid-detergent fibre; ruminal total VFA concentration; acetate:propionate ratio; activity of cellulolytic enzyme; populations of total bacteria, protozoa and dominant cellulolytic bacteria; and concentrations of Cu in serum and liver increased linearly, but ruminal propionate percentage, ammonia-N concentration, α-amylase activity and populations of Prevotella ruminicola and Ruminobacter amylophilus decreased linearly. The results indicated that supplement of CS could be substituted with CCS and addition of CCS improved milk performance and nutrient digestion in dairy cows.