Tidal flooding occurs when coastal water levels exceed impact-based flood thresholds due to tides alone, under average weather conditions. Transitions to tidal flood regimes are already underway for nuisance flood severities in harbours and bays and expected for higher severities in coming decades. In the first such regional assessment, we show that the same transition to tidally forced floods can also be expected to occur in Australian estuaries with less than 0.1 m further sea-level rise. Flood thresholds that historically used to only be exceeded under the combined effects of riverine (freshwater) and coastal (salt water) influences will then occur due to high tides alone. Once this tidal flooding emerges, it is projected to become chronic within two decades. Locations most at-risk of the emergence of tidal flooding and subsequent establishment of chronic flood regimes are those just inside estuary entrances. These locations are exemplified by low freeboard, the vertical distance between a flood threshold and a typical high tide level. We use a freeboard-based analysis to estimate the sea-level rise required for impacts associated with official flood thresholds to occur due to tides alone. The resultant tide-only flood frequency estimates provide a lower bound for future flood rates.

Researchers increasingly rely on aggregations of radiocarbon dates from archaeological sites as proxies for past human populations. This approach has been critiqued on several grounds, including the assumptions that material is deposited, preserved, and sampled in proportion to past population size. However, various attempts to quantitatively assess the approach suggest there may be some validity in assuming date counts reflect relative population size. To add to this conversation, here we conduct a preliminary analysis coupling estimates of ethnographic population density with late Holocene radiocarbon dates across all counties in California. Results show that counts of late Holocene radiocarbon-dated archaeological sites increase significantly as a function of ethnographic population density. This trend is robust across varying sampling windows over the last 5000 BP. Though the majority of variation in dated-site counts remains unexplained by population density. Outliers reveal how departures from the central trend may be influenced by regional differences in research traditions, development-driven contract work, organic preservation, and landscape taphonomy. Overall, this exercise provides some support for the “dates-as-data” approach and offers insights into the conditions where the underlying assumptions may or may not hold.

Among Líĺwat people of the Interior Plateau of British Columbia, an oral tradition relays how early ancestors used to ascend Qẃelqẃelústen, or Mount Meager. The account maintains that those climbers could see the ocean, which is not the case today, because the mountain is surrounded by many other high peaks, and the Strait of Georgia is several mountain ridges to the west. However, the mountain is an active and volatile volcano, which last erupted circa 2360 cal BP. It is also the site of the largest landslide in Canadian history, which occurred in 2010. Given that it had been a high, glacier-capped mountain throughout the Holocene, much like other volcanoes along the coastal range, we surmise that a climber may have reasonably been afforded a view of the ocean from its prior heights. We conducted viewshed analyses of the potential mountain height prior to its eruption and determined that one could indeed view the ocean if the mountain were at least 950 m higher than it is today. This aligns with the oral tradition, indicating that it may be over 2,400 years old, and plausibly in the range of 4,000 to 9,000 years old when the mountain may have been at such a height.

The consumption of healthy foods such as whole grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, legumes, dairy, and fish is associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD is an inflammatory disease caused by atherosclerosis. Inflammation is measured clinically using hsCRP, however hsCRP is not specific to CVD. Novel pro-inflammatory markers, such as platelet-activating factor (PAF) and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), have garnered attention due to their specific roles in endothelial dysfunction and CVD risk. During the COVID 19 outbreak research highlighted a potential interaction between PAF and Lp-PLA2 and the SARS COVID 19 virus(1-3) and related adenovirus-vector and mRNA vaccines.4 This cross-sectional study investigated the association between PAF, Lp-PLA2, hsCRP, and intake of healthy food groups including fruit, cruciferous and other vegetables, grains, meat and poultry, fish and seafood, nuts and legumes, and dairy in 100 adults (49 ± 13 years, 31% male) with variable CVD risk. Data were collected across four groups during May and July 2021 (Groups 1 and 2 - CVD risk factors) and January and April 2022 (Groups 3 and 4 - no CVD risk factors). Fasting PAF, Lp-PLA2 and hsCRP and usual dietary intake (food frequency questionnaire) were measured. Food intake was converted into serves and classified into food groups. Correlations and multiple regressions were performed. Contrary to expectations, mean PAF was lower for groups 1 and 2 (n = 46, mean PAF 3.31 ± 1.66 ng/mL) compared to groups 3 and 4 (n = 54, mean PAF 19.82 ± 12.95 ng/mL) p < 0.001 with a large effect size (eta squared 0.665). Cruciferous vegetables were associated with lower levels of PAF (β = -.27, CI [−0.41, −0.14], p < .001) with a one serve increase in cruciferous vegetables per day associated with an 24% reduction in PAF. Nuts and legumes were associated with lower levels of hsCRP (β = -.51, CI [−0.81, −0.22], p<.001) with an increase of one serve per day associated with a 40% reduction in hsCRP. There were small inverse associations between cheese and both PAF (β = -.15, CI [−0.27, −0.03], p = .017) and Lp-PLA2 (β = -.26, CI [−0.47, −0.04], p = .024), however these were not significant at the Bonferroni-adjusted P<.005 level. In conclusion, cruciferous vegetables and nut and legume consumption were associated with lower levels of inflammation. The lack of associations between PAF and Lp-PLA2 and other healthy foods may be due to confounding by COVID-19 infection and vaccination programs which prevents any firm conclusion on the relationship between PAF, Lp-PLA2 and food groups. Future research should aim to examine the relationship with these novel markers and healthy food groups in a non-pandemic setting.

Monitoring indicators of children`s diet quality at the national level is imperative to examine if a country is on track to achieving children`s global nutrition targets and fulfilling the related Sustainable Development Goals. Despite the importance of diet quality in early life and its impact in health and wellbeing throughout the life course, Aotearoa New Zealand has limited information that is nationally representative or generalizable on children`s diet quality, especially among children under 5 years old. The only national child nutrition survey conducted to date took place two decades ago and involved children 5 years of age and older. We have previously used data collected by the Growing in Up in New Zealand cohort study, which is nationally generalizable, to partially fill historic gaps in knowledge of children`s diet and feeding practices in the first five years of life. Information on breastfeeding initiation, duration and exclusivity, timing of food introduction and whole-of-diet adherence to National Food and Nutrition Guidelines have been previously published 1–3. This work intends to complement information on NZ children`s diet quality by examining the cohort`s dietary patterns (DPs) at 9- (n = 6,259), 24- (n = 6,292), and 54-months (n = 6,131) and their maternal sociodemographic and health behaviour determinants. At all time-points, children`s DPs were identified using principal components analyses. Multivariate linear regressions were performed to examine the associations between each DP and the maternal variables. At 9-, 24- and 54-months two distinct DPs were identified, explaining, 36.4%, 35.3% and 33.6% of children`s intake variability, respectively. The Refined high in sugar and salt DP, at all time-points, was characterised by high positive loadings in white/refined breads and cereals and items with high content of sugar, sodium, and fat. At 24-months, the Refined high in sugar and salt DP also had high positive loading in the protein group. The Fruit/Vegetables DP, at all time-points, had high positive loadings for fruits and vegetables (with type varying across time-points). The Fruit/Vegetables DP had high loading in whole grain options of breads and cereals at 24-months and positive loading in the protein group at 9- and 54-months. High scores on the Refined high in sugar and salt DP at the three time-points were associated with maternal smoking habits, maternal education level, ethnicity, and maternal scores in the “Junk” and “Traditional/White bread” DPs (obtained at the antenatal maternal interview). High children’s scores on the Fruit/Vegetables DP, at all time-points, were associated with the maternal antenatal score in the “Health Conscious” DP. Findings support that policies and interventions aiming to improve early life diets in NZ should be culturally safe and support mothers’ access to formal education, healthy diets, and smoking cessation.

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have higher risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases due to chronic gut and systemic inflammation which promotes atherogenesis. Adopting healthy lifestyle habits can prevent development of cardiometabolic diseases, but can be challenging for people with IBD. The IBD exercise and diet (IBDeat) habits study describes the lifestyle habits and cardiometabolic disease risk factors of adults with IBD in Aotearoa, New Zealand (NZ).

This is a cross-sectional study including adult NZ IBD patients recruited online via Crohn’s and Colitis NZ and Dunedin hospital from 2021 to 2022. An online questionnaire collected demographics, smoking status, comorbidities, medications, disease severity scores, quality of life, physical activity, and dietary intake. The Dunedin cohort had physical measurements taken including anthropometrics, handgrip strength, blood pressure, body composition (bioelectrical impedance), blood nutritional markers, and faecal calprotectin. Data were compared to established reference values and linear regression analysis investigated associations between lifestyle habits and cardiometabolic risk factors. The study received University of Otago ethical approval (reference: H21/135). A total of 213 adults with IBD (54% Crohn’s disease; 46% ulcerative colitis) completed the online questionnaire and a subset of 102 from Dunedin provided physical measurements. Participants characteristics were: median age 37 (IQR 25, 51) years, 71% female, 82% NZ European, 4% smokers, and 1.4% had active IBD. Thirty-five percent of participants had at least one comorbidity and 34% of participants had poor quality of life. Known dietary risk factors associated with cardiometabolic diseases were common: low intakes of vegetables (77%), fruit (51%), fibre (35%) and high intakes of total fat (84%) and saturated fat (98%). Physical activity recommendations were met by 61% of participants and 63% reported barriers to being more active from fatigue (63%) and joint pain (54%). Other cardiometabolic risk factors were common in the Dunedin cohort: high LDL (79%) and total cholesterol (76%), central adiposity (64%), high body fat percentage (44%), high blood pressure (26%), and low handgrip strength (25%). Regression analysis showed that vegetable (per serve) and carbohydrate (per 5% of total daily energy intake (TE)) were associated with 0.22 mmol/L (95%CI 0.43, 0.013) and 0.20 mmol/L (95%CI 0.34, 0.057) lower LDL cholesterol. Discretionary food items were associated with higher LDL cholesterol, 0.11 mmol/L per daily serve (95%CI 0.028, 0.19). A 5% difference in TE intake from carbohydrate was associated with 1.11% (95%CI 2.22%, 0.0038%) lower body fat percentage while protein was associated with 3.1% (95%CI 0.81%, 5.39%) higher body fat percentage. Physical activity had weak associations with cardiometabolic disease risk factors. Adults with IBD have multiple modifiable risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. Vegetable and carbohydrate intake were associated with lower LDL cholesterol concentration while discretionary food items showed otherwise. Protein intake was associated with higher body fat percentage.

Although food insecurity affects a significant proportion of young children in New Zealand (NZ)(1), evidence of its association with dietary intake and sociodemographic characteristics in this population is lacking. This study aims to assess the household food security status of young NZ children and its association with energy and nutrient intake and sociodemographic factors. This study included 289 caregiver and child (1-3 years old) dyads from the same household in either Auckland, Wellington, or Dunedin, NZ. Household food security status was determined using a validated and NZ-specific eight-item questionnaire(2). Usual dietary intake was determined from two 24-hour food recalls, using the multiple source method(3). The prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was assessed using the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) cut-point method and full probability approach. Sociodemographic factors (i.e., socioeconomic status, ethnicity, caregiver education, employment status, household size and structure) were collected from questionnaires. Linear regression models were used to estimate associations with statistical significance set at p <0.05. Over 30% of participants had experienced food insecurity in the past 12 months. Of all eight indicator statements, “the variety of foods we are able to eat is limited by a lack of money,” had the highest proportion of participants responding “often” or “sometimes” (35.8%). Moderately food insecure children exhibited higher fat and saturated fat intakes, consuming 3.0 (0.2, 5.8) g/day more fat, and 2.0 (0.6, 3.5) g/day more saturated fat compared to food secure children (p<0.05). Severely food insecure children had lower g/kg/day protein intake compared to food secure children (p<0.05). In comparison to food secure children, moderately and severely food insecure children had lower fibre intake, consuming 1.6 (2.8, 0.3) g/day and 2.6 (4.0, 1.2) g/day less fibre, respectively. Severely food insecure children had the highest prevalence of inadequate calcium (7.0%) and vitamin C (9.3%) intakes, compared with food secure children [prevalence of inadequate intakes: calcium (2.3%) and vitamin C (2.8%)]. Household food insecurity was more common in those of Māori or Pacific ethnicity; living in areas of high deprivation; having a caregiver who was younger, not in paid employment, or had low educational attainment; living with ≥2 other children in the household; and living in a sole-parent household. Food insecure young NZ children consume a diet that exhibits lower nutritional quality in certain measures compared to their food-secure counterparts. Food insecurity was associated with various sociodemographic factors that are closely linked with poverty or low income. As such, there is an urgent need for poverty mitigation initiatives to safeguard vulnerable young children from the adverse consequences of food insecurity.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The correction of spinopelvic parameters is associated with better outcomes in patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD). This study presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) tool that automatically predicts spinopelvic parameters from spine x-rays with high accuracy and without need for any manual entry. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The AI model was trained/validated on 761 sagittal whole-spine x-rays to predict the following parameters: Sagittal Vertical Axis (SVA), Pelvic Tilt (PT), Pelvic Incidence (PI), Sacral Slope (SS), Lumbar Lordosis (LL), T1-Pelvic Angle (T1PA), and L1-Pelvic Angle (L1PA). A separate test set of 40 x-rays was labeled by 4 reviewers including fellowship-trained spine surgeons and a neuroradiologist. Median errors relative to the most senior reviewer were calculated to determine model accuracy on test and cropped-test (i.e. lumbosacral) images. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to assess inter-rater reliability RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The AI model exhibited the following median (IQR) parameter errors: SVA[2.1mm (8.5mm), p=0.97], PT [1.5° (1.4°), p=0.52], PI[2.3° (2.4°), p=0.27], SS[1.7° (2.2°), p=0.64], LL [2.6° (4.0°), p=0.89], T1PA [1.3° (1.1°), p=0.41], and L1PA [1.3° (1.2°), p=0.51]. The parameter errors on cropped lumbosacral images were: LL[2.9° (2.6°), p=0.80] and SS[1.9° (2.2°), p=0.78]. The AI model exhibited excellent reliability at all parameters in both whole-spine (ICC: 0.92-1.0) and lumbosacral x-rays: (ICC: 0.92-0.93). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our AI model accurately predicts spinopelvic parameters with excellent reliability comparable to fellowship-trained spine surgeons and neuroradiologists. Utilization of predictive AI tools in spine-imaging can substantially aid in patient selection and surgical planning.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted established social support networks (faith-based, community, family, friends), resulting in unprecedented health-related, financial, and employment challenges among African Americans (AAs). This study explores the psychosocial influences of the pandemic on the health and wellness of AAs. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The FAITH! (Fostering African-American Improvement in Total Health!) Program, an academic-community partnership with AA churches, shifted focus to COVID-19 prevention in AA communities. Funded by the Mayo Clinic Center for Clinical and Translation Sciences, this cross-sectional study recruited AA adults from FAITH!-affiliated churches and social media to complete a survey exploring the personal impact of the pandemic from hardships (e.g., food and housing insecurity, paying utilities) on healthy lifestyle (HL). The primary outcome was difficulty maintaining a HL during the pandemic. Logistic regression (odds ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs)) was used to examine the associations between difficulty maintaining a HL and factors including COVID-19 hardships and mental health. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Participants (N=169, 71.4% female, 41.4% essential workers) had a mean age [SD] of 49.4 [14.9] years. Over half (91/169, 54%) reported difficulty maintaining a HL. Those reporting unemployment (OR 2.3; 95% CI [1.2,4.4]; p=0.008), difficulty paying rent (OR 4.1; 95% CI [2.1,8.6]; p<0.001), or food/utilities (OR 5.5; 95% CI [2.7,11.5]; p<0.001) all had greater odds of difficulty maintaining a HL. High stress (≥5/10, scale 1-10) was associated with difficulty maintaining a HL (OR 4.1; 95% CI [2.1,8.5]; p<0.001) compared to AAs with low stress. Negative mental health (depression (OR 3.4; 95% CI [1.0,13.7]; p<0.001), anger (OR 2.5; 95% CI [0.5,18.9]; p=0.005), and nervousness (OR 4.1; 95% CI [1.1,19.5]; p=0.003) was associated with difficulty maintaining a HL compared to AAs with positive mental health. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study findings revealed that COVID-19 hardships, stress, and negative mental health impacted the ability of AAs to maintain a HL. These issues should be considered in the design and implementation of community-based health programs to promote healthy living during future public health emergencies.

Running off the £2 trillion of UK corporate sector defined benefit liabilities in an efficient and effective fashion is the biggest challenge facing the UK pensions industry. As more and more defined benefit pension schemes start maturing, the trustees running those schemes need to consider what their target end-state will be and the associated journey plan. However, too few trustee boards have well-articulated and robust plans. Determining the target end-state requires a grasp of various disciplines and an ability to work collaboratively with different professional advisers. This paper sets out issues trustees, employers and their advisers can consider when addressing whether their target end state should be low- dependency, buyout or transfer to a superfund. Member outcomes analysis is introduced as a central tool through which to differentiate alternative target end-states. A five-step methodology is set out for deriving an optimal target end-state for a scheme. Also considered are the specific factors impacting stressed schemes, which highlights the importance to trustee boards when considering their Plan B should their employer or scheme ever become stressed. The paper ends with specific recommendations for the actuarial profession and The Pensions Regulator to take forward.

Odd Radio Circles (ORCs) are a class of low surface brightness, circular objects approximately one arcminute in diameter. ORCs were recently discovered in the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) data and subsequently confirmed with follow-up observations on other instruments, yet their origins remain uncertain. In this paper, we suggest that ORCs could be remnant lobes of powerful radio galaxies, re-energised by the passage of a shock. Using relativistic hydrodynamic simulations with synchrotron emission calculated in post-processing, we show that buoyant evolution of remnant radio lobes is alone too slow to produce the observed ORC morphology. However, the passage of a shock can produce both filled and edge-brightnened ORC-like morphologies for a wide variety of shock and observing orientations. Circular ORCs are predicted to have host galaxies near the geometric centre of the radio emission, consistent with observations of these objects. Significantly offset hosts are possible for elliptical ORCs, potentially causing challenges for accurate host galaxy identification. Observed ORC number counts are broadly consistent with a paradigm in which moderately powerful radio galaxies are their progenitors.

There are numerous challenges pertaining to epilepsy care across Ontario, including Epilepsy Monitoring Unit (EMU) bed pressures, surgical access and community supports. We sampled the current clinical, community and operational state of Ontario epilepsy centres and community epilepsy agencies post COVID-19 pandemic. A 44-item survey was distributed to all 11 district and regional adult and paediatric Ontario epilepsy centres. Qualitative responses were collected from community epilepsy agencies. Results revealed ongoing gaps in epilepsy care across Ontario, with EMU bed pressures and labour shortages being limiting factors. A clinical network advising the Ontario Ministry of Health will improve access to epilepsy care.

Medusahead [Taeniatherum caput-medusae (L.) Nevski] is an invasive winter annual grass of western North American grasslands and rangelands that negatively impacts forage production, wildlife habitat, and ecosystem processes. Growth regulator herbicides, such as aminopyralid, applied in spring reduced invasive annual grass seed viability in greenhouse and California annual grassland experiments. Beginning in fall 2017, we tested combinations of sequential fall (preemergence) and spring (postemergence) aminopyralid applications at low (103 g ae ha−1) and high (206 g ae ha−1) rates at two ecologically distinct sites in the Intermountain West. Preemergence and postemergence aminopyralid applications at low and high rates controlled T. caput-medusae by 76% to 100% the second summer after study initiation. At the Utah site (which is warmer, drier, and more degraded than the Idaho site), the high rate resulted in better control. The first summer, postemergence aminopyralid applications at low and high rates reduced seed viability 47% to 91% compared with nontreated seeds, with the greatest reductions seen in Utah, which was experiencing drought. Across study sites, reduced T. caput-medusae germination in one year was linked to improved control the following year. The Idaho site also had desirable perennial grasses, which we used to investigate non-target effects. In general, there was a correlation between high T. caput-medusae control and higher perennial grass cover, indicating that successful control can make desirable perennial grasses more vigorous in this system. The option of a spring aminopyralid application increases the management window for controlling invasive annual grasses by decreasing seed viability, thereby depleting short-lived seedbanks.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a powerful tool for the population-level monitoring of pathogens, particularly severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For assessment, several wastewater sampling regimes and methods of viral concentration have been investigated, mainly targeting SARS-CoV-2. However, the use of passive samplers in near-source environments for a range of viruses in wastewater is still under-investigated. To address this, near-source passive samples were taken at four locations targeting student hall of residence. These were chosen as an exemplar due to their high population density and perceived risk of disease transmission. Viruses investigated were SARS-CoV-2 and its variants of concern (VOCs), influenza viruses, and enteroviruses. Sampling was conducted either in the morning, where passive samplers were in place overnight (17 h) and during the day, with exposure of 7 h. We demonstrated the usefulness of near-source passive sampling for the detection of VOCs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Furthermore, several outbreaks of influenza A and sporadic outbreaks of enteroviruses (some associated with enterovirus D68 and coxsackieviruses) were identified among the resident student population, providing evidence of the usefulness of near-source, in-sewer sampling for monitoring the health of high population density communities.