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The National Healthcare Safety Network surgical site infections risk models for hip (HPRO) and knee (KPRO) replacement are intended for case-mix adjustment when reporting surgical site infection rates across institutions, but they are not validated in external data sets
To evaluate the validity of HPRO and KPRO risk models and improvement in risk prediction with inclusion of information on morbid obesity and diabetes mellitus.
Retrospective cohort study.
A single-center cohort of 21,941 hip and knee replacement procedures performed between 2002 and 2009.
Discriminative ability was assessed using the concordance statistic (C statistic). Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests.
The discrimination of HPRO was good, with a C statistic of 0.695 for surgical site infections and 0.749 for prosthetic joint infections. The discrimination of KPRO was worse than that of HPRO, with a C statistic of 0.592 for surgical site infections and 0.675 for prosthetic joint infections. Adding morbid obesity and diabetes mellitus to the HPRO and KPRO risk models modestly improved discrimination. There was no significant evidence of miscalibration based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, but calibration of HPRO models appeared to be better than that of the KPRO models.
HPRO performed better than the KPRO in predicting surgical site infections after hip and knee replacements. Both fared well in predicting prosthetic joint infections.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2014;35(11):1323–1329
The goal of this study was to develop a prognostic scoring system for the development of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) that could risk-stratify patients undergoing total hip (THA) or total knee (TKA) arthroplasties.
Previously reported case-control study.
Tertiary referral care setting from 2001 through 2006.
A derivation data set of 339 cases and 339 controls was used to develop 2 scores. A baseline score and a 1-month-postsurgery risk score were computed as a function of the relative contributions of risk factors for each model. Points were assigned for the presence of each factor and then summed to get a subject's risk score.
The following risk factors were detected from multivariable modeling and incorporated into the baseline Mayo PJI risk score: body mass index, prior other operation on the index joint, prior arthroplasty, immunosuppression, ASA score, and procedure duration (c index, 0.722). The 1-month-postsurgery risk score contained the same variables in addition to postoperative wound drainage (c index, 0.716).
The baseline score might help with risk stratification in relation to public reporting and reimbursement as well as targeted prevention strategies in patients undergoing THA or TKA. The application of the 1-month-postsurgery PJI risk score to patients undergoing THA or TKA might benefit those undergoing workup for PJI.
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