Inflammation and infections such as malaria affect micronutrient biomarker concentrations and hence estimates of nutritional status. It is unknown whether correction for C-reactive protein (CRP) and α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) fully captures the modification in ferritin concentrations during a malaria infection, or whether environmental and sociodemographic factors modify this association. Cross-sectional data from eight surveys in children aged 6–59 months (Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria and Zambia; n 6653) from the Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anaemia (BRINDA) project were pooled. Ferritin was adjusted using the BRINDA adjustment method, with values < 12 μg/l indicating iron deficiency. The association between current or recent malaria infection, detected by microscopy or rapid test kit, and inflammation-adjusted ferritin was estimated using pooled multivariable linear regression. Age, sex, malaria endemicity profile (defined by the Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence) and malaria diagnostic methods were examined as effect modifiers. Unweighted pooled malaria prevalence was 26·0 % (95 % CI 25·0, 27·1) and unweighted pooled iron deficiency was 41·9 % (95 % CI 40·7, 43·1). Current or recent malaria infection was associated with a 44 % (95 % CI 39·0, 52·0; P < 0·001) increase in inflammation-adjusted ferritin after adjusting for age and study identifier. In children, ferritin increased less with malaria infection as age and malaria endemicity increased. Adjustment for malaria increased the prevalence of iron deficiency, but the effect was small. Additional information would help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the role of endemicity and age in the association between malaria and ferritin.

Italian ryegrass is a major weed in winter cereals in the south-central United States. Harvest weed seed control (HWSC) tactics that aim to remove weed seed from crop fields are a potential avenue to reduce Italian ryegrass seedbank inputs. To this effect, a 4-yr, large-plot field study was conducted in College Station, Texas, and Newport, Arkansas, from 2016 to 2019. The treatments were arranged in a split-plot design. The main-plot treatments were (1) no narrow-windrow burning (a HWSC strategy) + disk tillage immediately after harvest, (2) HWSC + disk tillage immediately after harvest, and (3) HWSC + disk tillage 1 mo after harvest. The subplot treatments were (1) pendimethalin (1,065 g ai ha−1; Prowl H2O®) as a delayed preemergence application (herbicide program #1), and (2) a premix of flufenacet (305 g ai ha−1) + metribuzin (76 g ai ha−1; Axiom®) mixed with pyroxasulfone (89 g ai ha−1; Zidua® WG) as an early postemergence application followed by pinoxaden (59 g ai ha−1; Axial® XL) in spring (herbicide program #2). After 4 yr, HWSC alone was significantly better than no HWSC. Herbicide program #2 was superior to herbicide program #1. Herbicide program #2 combined with HWSC was the most effective treatment. The combination of herbicide program #1 and standard harvest practice (no HWSC; check) led to an increase in fall Italian ryegrass densities from 4 plants m−2 in 2017 to 58 plants m−2 in 2019 at College Station. At wheat harvest, Italian ryegrass densities were 58 and 59 shoots m−2 in check plots at College Station and Newport, respectively, whereas the densities were near zero in plots with herbicide program #2 and HWSC at both locations. These results will be useful for developing an improved Italian ryegrass management strategy in this region.

Seed retention, and ultimately seed shatter, are extremely important for the efficacy of harvest weed seed control (HWSC) and are likely influenced by various agroecological and environmental factors. Field studies investigated seed-shattering phenology of 22 weed species across three soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]-producing regions in the United States. We further evaluated the potential drivers of seed shatter in terms of weather conditions, growing degree days, and plant biomass. Based on the results, weather conditions had no consistent impact on weed seed shatter. However, there was a positive correlation between individual weed plant biomass and delayed weed seed–shattering rates during harvest. This work demonstrates that HWSC can potentially reduce weed seedbank inputs of plants that have escaped early-season management practices and retained seed through harvest. However, smaller individuals of plants within the same population that shatter seed before harvest pose a risk of escaping early-season management and HWSC.

Potential effectiveness of harvest weed seed control (HWSC) systems depends upon seed shatter of the target weed species at crop maturity, enabling its collection and processing at crop harvest. However, seed retention likely is influenced by agroecological and environmental factors. In 2016 and 2017, we assessed seed-shatter phenology in 13 economically important broadleaf weed species in soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] from crop physiological maturity to 4 wk after physiological maturity at multiple sites spread across 14 states in the southern, northern, and mid-Atlantic United States. Greater proportions of seeds were retained by weeds in southern latitudes and shatter rate increased at northern latitudes. Amaranthus spp. seed shatter was low (0% to 2%), whereas shatter varied widely in common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) (2% to 90%) over the weeks following soybean physiological maturity. Overall, the broadleaf species studied shattered less than 10% of their seeds by soybean harvest. Our results suggest that some of the broadleaf species with greater seed retention rates in the weeks following soybean physiological maturity may be good candidates for HWSC.

Seed shatter is an important weediness trait on which the efficacy of harvest weed seed control (HWSC) depends. The level of seed shatter in a species is likely influenced by agroecological and environmental factors. In 2016 and 2017, we assessed seed shatter of eight economically important grass weed species in soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] from crop physiological maturity to 4 wk after maturity at multiple sites spread across 11 states in the southern, northern, and mid-Atlantic United States. From soybean maturity to 4 wk after maturity, cumulative percent seed shatter was lowest in the southern U.S. regions and increased moving north through the states. At soybean maturity, the percent of seed shatter ranged from 1% to 70%. That range had shifted to 5% to 100% (mean: 42%) by 25 d after soybean maturity. There were considerable differences in seed-shatter onset and rate of progression between sites and years in some species that could impact their susceptibility to HWSC. Our results suggest that many summer annual grass species are likely not ideal candidates for HWSC, although HWSC could substantially reduce their seed output during certain years.

The Institute is a world leader in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. It has produced quarterly economic forecasts for around sixty years, supported by macroeconomic models. The aim of the original builders of macroeconomic models was to transform understanding of how economies worked and use that knowledge to improve economic policy. In the early years, when computers were rare, macroeconomic modelling was a new frontier and Institute economists were among the first to produce a working model of the UK economy. It is remarkable how quickly models were being used to produce forecasts, assess policy and influence the international macroeconomic research agenda. The models built at the Institute were mainstream in the sense that they followed the contents of standard macroeconomic textbooks, developed with the subject, and fitted the facts as they were known at the time. There were continual improvements in understanding as the subject developed in response to new ideas and developments in the global economy. This article celebrates the development of macroeconomic modelling at the Institute and the contribution it has made to public life.

By the third quarter of this year, the economy had grown for thirty-three consecutive quarters since its trough in the second quarter of 1992. Such a long period of expansion inevitably raises questions about its sustainability. Chart 1 compares the paths for the level of output from the last two business cycle troughs in 1981 and 1992.

In this article we propose a policy framework for inflation targeting that contains elements of both optimal and simple rules. We use a simple feedback rule for the interest rate to look after monetary policy in the long run whilst using optimal control in the short run to determine appropriate responses to shocks. The composite policy is capable of substantial welfare improvements over using a simple rule alone whilst maintaining tractability. We see the use of such a framework together with a fully specified model as a feasible approach to practical policy design.