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The general public is familiar with weather forecasts and their utility, and the field of weather forecasting is well-established. Even the theoretical limit of the weather forecasting – two weeks – is known. In contrast, familiarity with climate prediction is low outside of the research field, the theoretical basis is not fully established, and we do not know the extent to which climate can be predicted. Variations in climate, however, can have large societal and economic consequences, as they can lead to droughts and floods, and spells of extreme hot and cold weather. Thus, improving our capabilities to predict climate is important and urgent, as it can enhance climate services and thereby contribute to the sustainable development of humans in this era of climate change.
The emergence of callous unemotional (CU) traits, and associated externalizing behaviors, is believed to reflect underlying dysfunction in the amygdala. Studies of adults with CU traits or psychopathy have linked characteristic patterns of amygdala dysfunction to reduced amygdala volume, but studies in youths have not thus far found evidence of similar amygdala volume reductions. The current study examined the association between CU traits and amygdala volume by modeling CU traits and externalizing behavior as independent continuous variables, and explored the relative contributions of callous, uncaring, and unemotional traits.
CU traits and externalizing behavior problems were assessed in 148 youths using the Inventory of Callous Unemotional Traits (ICU) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). For a subset of participants (n = 93), high-resolution T1-weighted images were collected and volume estimates for the amygdala were extracted.
Analyses revealed that CU traits were associated with increased externalizing behaviors and decreased bilateral amygdala volume. These results were driven by the callous and uncaring sub-factors of CU traits, with unemotional traits unrelated to either externalizing behaviors or amygdala volume. Results persisted after accounting for covariation between CU traits and externalizing behaviors. Bootstrap mediation analyses indicated that CU traits mediated the relationship between reduced amygdala volume and externalizing severity.
These findings provide evidence that callous-uncaring traits account for reduced amygdala volume among youths with conduct problems. These findings provide a framework for further investigation of abnormal amygdala development as a key causal pathway for the development of callous-uncaring traits and conduct problems.
Callous–unemotional (CU) traits characterize a subgroup of youths with conduct problems who exhibit low empathy, fearlessness, and elevated externalizing behaviors. The current study examines the role of aberrant amygdala activity and functional connectivity during a socioemotional judgment task in youths with CU traits, and links these deficits to externalizing behaviors. Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to compare neural responses in 18 healthy youths and 30 youths with conduct problems and varying levels of CU traits as they evaluated the acceptability of causing another person to experience each of several emotions, including fear. Neuroimaging analyses examined blood oxygenation level dependent responses and task-dependent functional connectivity. High-CU youths exhibited left amygdala hypoactivation relative to healthy controls and low-CU youths primarily during evaluations of causing others fear. CU traits moderated the relationship between externalizing behavior and both amygdala activity and patterns of functional connectivity. The present data suggest that CU youths' aberrant amygdala activity and connectivity affect how they make judgments about the acceptability of causing others emotional distress, and that these aberrations represent risk factors for externalizing behaviors like rule breaking and aggression. These findings suggest that reducing externalizing behaviors in high-CU youths may require interventions that influence affective sensitivity.
An analysis was undertaken to measure age-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 2010/11 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (TIV) and monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine (PIV) administered in 2009/2010. The test-negative case-control study design was employed based on patients consulting primary care. Overall TIV effectiveness, adjusted for age and month, against confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm 2009 infection was 56% (95% CI 42–66); age-specific adjusted VE was 87% (95% CI 45–97) in <5-year-olds and 84% (95% CI 27–97) in 5- to 14-year-olds. Adjusted VE for PIV was only 28% (95% CI −6 to 51) overall and 72% (95% CI 15–91) in <5-year-olds. For confirmed influenza B infection, TIV effectiveness was 57% (95% CI 42–68) and in 5- to 14-year-olds 75% (95% CI 32–91). TIV provided moderate protection against the main circulating strains in 2010/2011, with higher protection in children. PIV administered during the previous season provided residual protection after 1 year, particularly in the <5 years age group.
IUE and optical data were obtained throughout the supercycles of RZ LMi and ER UMa during 1993/94. While most of the spectral and photometric characteristics are consistent with disk changes in systems with a relatively high accretion rate and low inclination, the cause of the high accretion rate in this subset of SU UMa stars is not known.
1.1 The paper was prepared by the authors as members of the Pensions Research Group of the Faculty of Actuaries. It covers the major factors influencing the design of pension schemes during the last decade. This period saw an unprecedented level of legislation on pensions, much of it with far reaching consequences. In the final sections of the paper some suggestions are put forward as to the likely form of benefit design in the 1990s and beyond.
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