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Given the global prevalence of depression and other major mood disorders, the evidence of increasing rates among younger cohorts, the limited capacity of most treatment systems to respond to increasing demands for care, and the reality that services do not connect with a large proportion of those living with depressive disorders, a greater emphasis is being placed on our capacity to prevent the onset, recurrence, or persistence of these disabling conditions (Herrman et al., 2022).
Primary youth mental health services in Australia have increased access to care for young people, yet the longer-term outcomes and utilisation of other health services among these populations is unclear.
Aims
To describe the emergency department presentation patterns of a help-seeking youth mental health cohort.
Method
Data linkage was performed to extract Emergency Department Data Collection registry data (i.e. emergency department presentations, pattern of re-presentations) for a transdiagnostic cohort of 7024 youths (aged 12–30 years) who presented to mental health services. Outcome measures were pattern of presentations and reason for presentations (i.e. mental illness; suicidal behaviours and self-harm; alcohol and substance use; accident and injury; physical illness; and other).
Results
During the follow-up period, 5372 (76.5%) had at least one emergency department presentation. The presentation rate was lower for males (IRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.86–0.89) and highest among those aged 18 to 24 (IRR = 1.117, 95% CI 1.086–1.148). Almost one-third (31.12%) had an emergency department presentation that was directly associated with mental illness or substance use, and the most common reasons for presentation were for physical illness and accident or injury. Index visits for mental illness or substance use were associated with a higher rate of re-presentation.
Conclusions
Most young people presenting to primary mental health services also utilised emergency services. The preventable and repeated nature of many presentations suggests that reducing the ongoing secondary risks of mental disorders (i.e. substance misuse, suicidality, physical illness) could substantially improve the mental and physical health outcomes of young people.
The needs of young people attending mental healthcare can be complex and often span multiple domains (e.g., social, emotional and physical health factors). These factors often complicate treatment approaches and contribute to poorer outcomes in youth mental health. We aimed to identify how these factors interact over time by modelling the temporal dependencies between these transdiagnostic social, emotional and physical health factors among young people presenting for youth mental healthcare.
Methods
Dynamic Bayesian networks were used to examine the relationship between mental health factors across multiple domains (social and occupational function, self-harm and suicidality, alcohol and substance use, physical health and psychiatric syndromes) in a longitudinal cohort of 2663 young people accessing youth mental health services. Two networks were developed: (1) ‘initial network’, that shows the conditional dependencies between factors at first presentation, and a (2) ‘transition network’, how factors are dependent longitudinally.
Results
The ‘initial network’ identified that childhood disorders tend to precede adolescent depression which itself was associated with three distinct pathways or illness trajectories; (1) anxiety disorder; (2) bipolar disorder, manic-like experiences, circadian disturbances and psychosis-like experiences; (3) self-harm and suicidality to alcohol and substance use or functioning. The ‘transition network’ identified that over time social and occupational function had the largest effect on self-harm and suicidality, with direct effects on ideation (relative risk [RR], 1.79; CI, 1.59–1.99) and self-harm (RR, 1.32; CI, 1.22–1.41), and an indirect effect on attempts (RR, 2.10; CI, 1.69–2.50). Suicide ideation had a direct effect on future suicide attempts (RR, 4.37; CI, 3.28–5.43) and self-harm (RR, 2.78; CI, 2.55–3.01). Alcohol and substance use, physical health and psychiatric syndromes (e.g., depression and anxiety, at-risk mental states) were independent domains whereby all direct effects remained within each domain over time.
Conclusions
This study identified probable temporal dependencies between domains, which has causal interpretations, and therefore can provide insight into their differential role over the course of illness. This work identified social, emotional and physical health factors that may be important early intervention and prevention targets. Improving social and occupational function may be a critical target due to its impacts longitudinally on self-harm and suicidality. The conditional independence of alcohol and substance use supports the need for specific interventions to target these comorbidities.
Understanding premature mortality risk from suicide and other causes in youth mental health cohorts is essential for delivering effective clinical interventions and secondary prevention strategies.
Aims
To establish premature mortality risk in young people accessing early intervention mental health services and identify predictors of mortality.
Method
State-wide data registers of emergency departments, hospital admissions and mortality were linked to the Brain and Mind Research Register, a longitudinal cohort of 7081 young people accessing early intervention care, between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were mortality rates and age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR). Cox regression was used to identify predictors of all-cause mortality and deaths due to suicide or accident.
Results
There were 60 deaths (male 63.3%) during the study period, 25 (42%) due to suicide, 19 (32%) from accident or injury and eight (13.3%) where cause was under investigation. All-cause SMR was 2.0 (95% CI 1.6–2.6) but higher for males (5.3, 95% CI 3.8–7.0). The mortality rate from suicide and accidental deaths was 101.56 per 100 000 person-years. Poisoning, whether intentional or accidental, was the single greatest primary cause of death (26.7%). Prior emergency department presentation for poisoning (hazard ratio (HR) 4.40, 95% CI 2.13–9.09) and psychiatric admission (HR 4.01, 95% CI 1.81–8.88) were the strongest predictors of mortality.
Conclusion
Premature mortality in young people accessing early intervention mental health services is greatly increased relative to population. Prior health service use and method of self-harm are useful predictors of future mortality. Enhanced care pathways following emergency department presentations should not be limited to those reporting suicidal ideation or intent.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: This study will collect multimodal and longitudinal data in adults with obsessive-compulsive disorder and healthy controls. A mixed effects random forest machine learning approach will be taken to develop a model that can predict individualized longitudinal OCD symptom burden. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Baseline resting state functional MRI (rsfMRI) and measures of symptom burden will be collected in adults with OCD and healthy controls. Longitudinal measures of behavior and physiology–such as heart rate, activity, and sleep metrics - will be collected using Fitbit Charge 5 tracker. Daily assessments of symptom burden and functional status will be collected through a smartphone app. Individuals with OCD will start pharmacotherapy during the study period and all participants will be followed for a total of 10 weeks. Repeat rsfMRI imaging will occur at study conclusion. Data will be analyzed using a mixed effects random forest machine learning algorithm with assessment of model performance. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Prior studies of symptom severity in psychiatric illness and affect in non-clinical populations have found longitudinal features - such as lexical and acoustic measures, participant context, heart rate, and sleep metrics–that were predictive of these states over time. It is anticipated that the present study will extend these results to individuals with OCD and identify physiologic and behavioral features that track personalized symptom burden longitudinally in this patient population. A model able to predict when symptoms are elevated could allow for provision of additional treatment or interventions targeted to times of high symptom burden. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study will be the first to collect and analyze longitudinal measures of behavior, symptoms, and physiology in patients with OCD with a goal of predicting symptom burden. Identification of elevated symptom burden would allow for implementation of just-in-time treatment, during these periods.
Whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) is the standard method for profiling DNA methylation at single-nucleotide resolution. Different tools have been developed to extract differentially methylated regions (DMRs), often built upon assumptions from mammalian data. Here, we present MethylScore, a pipeline to analyse WGBS data and to account for the substantially more complex and variable nature of plant DNA methylation. MethylScore uses an unsupervised machine learning approach to segment the genome by classification into states of high and low methylation. It processes data from genomic alignments to DMR output and is designed to be usable by novice and expert users alike. We show how MethylScore can identify DMRs from hundreds of samples and how its data-driven approach can stratify associated samples without prior information. We identify DMRs in the A. thaliana 1,001 Genomes dataset to unveil known and unknown genotype–epigenotype associations .
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a cartilage destroying disease. We are investigating abaloparatide (ABL) activation of parathyroid hormone receptor type 1 (PTH1R), which is expressed by articular chondrocytes in OA. We propose ABL treatment is chondroprotective in murine PTOA via stimulation of matrix production and inhibition of chondrocyte maturation. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: 16-week-old C57BL/6 male mice received destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM) surgery to induce knee PTOA. Beginning 2 weeks post-DMM, 40 μg/kg of ABL (or saline) was administered daily via subcutaneous injection and tissues were harvested after 6 weeks of daily injections and 8 weeks after DMM surgery. Harvested joint tissues were used for histological and molecular assessment of OA using three 5 μm thick sagittal sections from each joint, 50 μm apart, cut from the medial compartment of injured knees. Safranin O/Fast Green tissue staining and immunohistochemistry-based detection of type 10 collagen (Col10) and lubricin (Prg4) was performed using standard methods. Histomorphometric quantification of tibial cartilage area and larger hypertrophic-like cells was performed using the Osteomeasure system. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Safranin O/Fast Green stained sections showed a decreased cartilage loss in DMM joints from ABL-treated versus saline-treated mice. Histomorphometric analysis of total tibial cartilage area revealed preservation of cartilage tissue on the tibial surface. Immunohistochemical analyses showed that upregulation of Col10 in DMM joints was mitigated in the cartilage of ABL-treated mice, and chondrocyte expression of Prg4 was increased in uncalcified cartilage areas in ABL-treated group. The Prg4 finding suggests a matrix anabolic effect that may counter OA cartilage loss. Quantification of chondrocytes in uncalcified and calcified tibial cartilage areas revealed a reduction in the number of larger hypertrophic-like cells in ABL treated mice, suggesting deceleration of hypertrophic differentiation. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Cartilage preservation/regeneration therapies would fill a critical unmet need. We demonstrate that an osteoporosis drug targeting PTH1R decelerates PTOA in mice. ABL treatment was associated with preservation of cartilage, decreased Col10, increased Prg4, and decreased number of large hypertrophic-like chondrocytes in the tibial cartilage.
Conventionally, intelligence is seen as a property of individuals. However, it is also known to be a property of collectives. Here, we broaden the idea of intelligence as a collective property and extend it to the planetary scale. We consider the ways in which the appearance of technological intelligence may represent a kind of planetary scale transition, and thus might be seen not as something which happens on a planet but to a planet, much as some models propose the origin of life itself was a planetary phenomenon. Our approach follows the recognition among researchers that the correct scale to understand key aspects of life and its evolution is planetary, as opposed to the more traditional focus on individual species. We explore ways in which the concept may prove useful for three distinct domains: Earth Systems and Exoplanet studies; Anthropocene and Sustainability studies; and the study of Technosignatures and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). We argue that explorations of planetary intelligence, defined as the acquisition and application of collective knowledge operating at a planetary scale and integrated into the function of coupled planetary systems, can prove a useful framework for understanding possible paths of the long-term evolution of inhabited planets including future trajectories for life on Earth and predicting features of intelligentially steered planetary evolution on other worlds.
This chapter synthesises insights from the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP), which provided detailed analysis of how 16 countries representing three-quarters of global emissions can transition to very low-carbon economies. The four ‘pillars’ of decarbonisation are identified as: achieving low or zero-carbon electricity supply; electrification and fuel switching in transport, industry and housing; ambitious energy efficiency improvements; and reducing non-energy emissions. The chapter focuses on decarbonisation scenarios for Australia. It shows that electricity supply can be readily decarbonised and greatly expanded to cater for electrification of transport, industry and buildings. There would be remaining emissions principally from industry and agriculture, these could be fully compensated through land-based carbon sequestration. The analysis shows that such decarbonisation would be consistent with continued growth in GDP and trade, and would require very little change in economic structure of Australia’s economy. Australia is rich in renewable energy potential, which could re-enable new industries such as energy-intensive manufacturing for export
Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools.
Aims
To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics.
Method
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts.
Results
Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO.
Conclusions
AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.
A novel paediatric disease, multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children, has emerged during the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic.
Objectives:
To describe the short-term evolution of cardiac complications and associated risk factors in patients with multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children.
Methods:
Retrospective single-centre study of confirmed multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children treated from 29 March, 2020 to 1 September, 2020. Cardiac complications during the acute phase were defined as decreased systolic function, coronary artery abnormalities, pericardial effusion, or mitral and/or tricuspid valve regurgitation. Patients with or without cardiac complications were compared with chi-square, Fisher’s exact, and Wilcoxon rank sum.
Results:
Thirty-nine children with median (interquartile range) age 7.8 (3.6–12.7) years were included. Nineteen (49%) patients developed cardiac complications including systolic dysfunction (33%), valvular regurgitation (31%), coronary artery abnormalities (18%), and pericardial effusion (5%). At the time of the most recent follow-up, at a median (interquartile range) of 49 (26–61) days, cardiac complications resolved in 16/19 (84%) patients. Two patients had persistent mild systolic dysfunction and one patient had persistent coronary artery abnormality. Children with cardiac complications were more likely to have higher N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (p = 0.01), higher white blood cell count (p = 0.01), higher neutrophil count (p = 0.02), severe lymphopenia (p = 0.05), use of milrinone (p = 0.03), and intensive care requirement (p = 0.04).
Conclusion:
Patients with multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children had a high rate of cardiac complications in the acute phase, with associated inflammatory markers. Although cardiac complications resolved in 84% of patients, further long-term studies are needed to assess if the cardiac abnormalities (transient or persistent) are associated with major cardiac events.
Background: In November 2020, bamlanivimab received emergency use authorization (EUA) to treat patients with early, mild-to-moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of progression. Montefiore Medical Center serves an economically underserved community of >1.4 million residents in the Bronx, New York. Montefiore’s antimicrobial stewardship team (AST) developed a multidisciplinary treatment pathway for patients meeting EUA criteria: (1) outpatients and hospital associates and (2) acute-care patients (EDs or inpatient). Methods: The Montefiore AST established a centralized process for screening high-risk COVID-19 patients 7 days a week. Referrals were sent by e-mail from occupational health, primary care practices, specialty practices, emergency departments, and urgent care centers. Patients were screened in real time and were treated in the ED or a newly established infusion center within 24 hours. After infusion, all patients received phone calls from nurses and had an infectious diseases televisit. Demographics, clinical symptoms, subsequent ED visit or hospital admission, and timing from infusion to ED or hospitalization were obtained from the electronic health record. Results: In total, 281 high-risk patients (median age, 62 years; 57% female) received bamlanivimab at the infusion center or in the acute-care setting between December 2, 2020, and January 27, 2021 (Table 1). The number of treated patients increased weekly (Figure 1). Also, 62% were Hispanic or black, and 96% met EUA criteria. Furthermore, 51 (18%) were referred from occupational health, 205 (73%) were referred from the community, and 25 (9%) were inpatients (https://www.fda.gov/media/143605/download). All patients were successfully infused without adverse reactions. In addition, 23 patients (8.2%) were hospitalized and 6 (2.1%) visited EDs within 30 days of treatment. The average number of days between symptom onset and infusion was 4.9. The median age of admitted versus nonadmitted patients was 68 years versus 61.5 years (P = .07). Conclusions: An AST-coordinated bamlanivimab treatment program successfully treated multiple high-risk COVID-19 patients and potentially reduced hospitalizations. However, the effort, personnel, and resources required are significant. Dedicated hospital investment is necessary for maximal success.
In 2018, the Neurodevelopmental and Psychosocial Interventions Working Group of the Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Outcome Collaborative convened through support from an R13 grant from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute to survey the state of neurodevelopmental and psychosocial intervention research in CHD and to propose a slate of critical questions and investigations required to improve outcomes for this growing population of survivors and their families. Prior research, although limited, suggests that individualised developmental care interventions delivered early in life are beneficial for improving a range of outcomes including feeding, motor and cognitive development, and physiological regulation. Interventions to address self-regulatory, cognitive, and social-emotional challenges have shown promise in other medical populations, yet their applicability and effectiveness for use in individuals with CHD have not been examined. To move this field of research forward, we must strive to better understand the impact of neurodevelopmental and psychosocial intervention within the CHD population including adapting existing interventions for individuals with CHD. We must examine the ways in which dedicated cardiac neurodevelopmental follow-up programmes bolster resilience and support children and families through the myriad transitions inherent to the experience of living with CHD. And, we must ensure that interventions are person-/family-centred, inclusive of individuals from diverse cultural backgrounds as well as those with genetic/medical comorbidities, and proactive in their efforts to include individuals who are at highest risk but who may be traditionally less likely to participate in intervention trials.
Predictors of new-onset bipolar disorder (BD) or psychotic disorder (PD) have been proposed on the basis of retrospective or prospective studies of ‘at-risk’ cohorts. Few studies have compared concurrently or longitudinally factors associated with the onset of BD or PDs in youth presenting to early intervention services. We aimed to identify clinical predictors of the onset of full-threshold (FT) BD or PD in this population.
Method
Multi-state Markov modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline characteristics and the likelihood of the onset of FT BD or PD in youth (aged 12–30) presenting to mental health services.
Results
Of 2330 individuals assessed longitudinally, 4.3% (n = 100) met criteria for new-onset FT BD and 2.2% (n = 51) met criteria for a new-onset FT PD. The emergence of FT BD was associated with older age, lower social and occupational functioning, mania-like experiences (MLE), suicide attempts, reduced incidence of physical illness, childhood-onset depression, and childhood-onset anxiety. The emergence of a PD was associated with older age, male sex, psychosis-like experiences (PLE), suicide attempts, stimulant use, and childhood-onset depression.
Conclusions
Identifying risk factors for the onset of either BD or PDs in young people presenting to early intervention services is assisted not only by the increased focus on MLE and PLE, but also by recognising the predictive significance of poorer social function, childhood-onset anxiety and mood disorders, and suicide attempts prior to the time of entry to services. Secondary prevention may be enhanced by greater attention to those risk factors that are modifiable or shared by both illness trajectories.
First contact with another civilization, or simply another intelligence of some kind, will likely be quite different depending on whether that intelligence is more or less advanced than ourselves. If we assume that the lifetime distribution of intelligences follows an approximately exponential distribution, one might naively assume that the pile-up of short-lived entities dominates any detection or contact scenario. However, it is argued here that the probability of contact is proportional to the age of said intelligence (or possibly stronger), which introduces a selection effect. We demonstrate that detected intelligences will have a mean age twice that of the underlying (detected + undetected) population, using the exponential model. We find that our first contact will most likely be with an older intelligence, provided that the maximum allowed mean lifetime of the intelligence population, τmax, is ≥ e times larger than our own. Older intelligences may be rare but they disproportionately contribute to first contacts, introducing what we call a ‘contact inequality’, analogous to wealth inequality. This reasoning formalizes intuitional arguments and highlights that first contact would likely be one-sided, with ramifications for how we approach SETI.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Rapid and accurate identification of primary malaria vector species from collected specimens is the most critical aspect of effective vector surveillance and control. This interdisciplinary team of engineers aims to automate identification using a deep learning computer vision algorithm. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The team spent August of 2019 observing and participating in control and surveillance activities in Zambia and Uganda. They conducted >65 interviews with key stakeholders across 9 malaria control and surveillance sites, ranging from field and community health workers, to malaria researchers and Ministry of Health employees. Stakeholder feedback validated the need for a more accurate and efficient method of vector identification in order to more effectively deploy targeted malaria interventions. The team set forth in designing and prototyping a portable, automated field tool that could speciate mosquito vectors to the complex level using artificial intelligence. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The team’s research demonstrated that accuracy, cost effectiveness, and ease of use would be critical to the successful adoption of the tool. Results of initial prototyping, usability studies, and stakeholder surveys were used to determine the tool’s minimal user specifications: 1) the ability to distinguish between Anopheles Gambiae and Anopheles Funestus, the two principal malaria vectors in the countries visited, 2) achieving an identification accuracy of ≥90% to the complex level, and 3) accessibility to the speciation data 3-7 days following vector collection. Next steps include optimizing the tool to deploy a minimal viable product for testing in Kenya by the summer of 2020. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: The accurate, high-quality surveillance enabled by this device would allow malaria control programs to scale surveillance to remote regions where an entomologist may not be available, allowing malaria programs to deploy effective interventions, monitor results, and prevent disease.
The Fontan Outcomes Network was created to improve outcomes for children and adults with single ventricle CHD living with Fontan circulation. The network mission is to optimise longevity and quality of life by improving physical health, neurodevelopmental outcomes, resilience, and emotional health for these individuals and their families. This manuscript describes the systematic design of this new learning health network, including the initial steps in development of a national, lifespan registry, and pilot testing of data collection forms at 10 congenital heart centres.