This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.

The Nazi ghetto system was one of the principal vehicles for the persecution of Jewish and other peoples in German-occupied Europe in World War II. Transport and confinement—twin pillars of the ghetto system—were intrinsically geographical matters that operated on scales from the international to the local and that shaped the demographic and epidemiological character of ghettos across Eastern Europe. This article uses geographical techniques of map-based visualization and spatial analysis to portray the demographic and epidemic history of the Nazi “model” camp-ghetto at Theresienstadt (Terezín) in the former German Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, 1941–45. Our study reconstructs the space-time pattern and demographic structure of transports of Jewish prisoners to the ghetto and their association with substantial outbreaks of communicable diseases in the ghetto. The study highlights the importance of a geographical approach to an understanding of the demographic and public health impacts of both the Holocaust and other genocidal events.

We present a dust flux (g m-2yr-1) record for the East Mediterranean Sea constructed using 87Sr/86Sr ratio measurements on the fine fraction of carbonate-free sediment from core 9501 from the north Levantine basin. The Saharan dust flux profile shows a first order correspondence with Atlantic dust-flux records in showing: (1) small dust fluxes during the last glacial maximum, a dust pulse associated with the Heinrich 1 (H1) event; (2) a small peak corresponding with the younger dryas (YD); (3) a decrease during the African Humid Period (AHP); and (4) an abrupt return to dustier conditions between ~5.7—5.2 ky BP.

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the use of testing for equivalence in combination with the Bland and Altman method when assessing agreement between two dietary methods. A sample data set, with eighty subjects simulated from previously published studies, was used to compare a FFQ with three 24 h recalls (24HR) for assessing dietary I intake. The mean I intake using the FFQ was 126·51 (sd 54·06) µg and using the three 24HR was 124·23 (sd 48·62) µg. The bias was −2·28 (sd 43·93) µg with a 90 % CI 10·46, 5·89 µg. The limits of agreement (LOA) were −88·38, 83·82 µg. Four equivalence regions were compared. Using the conventional 10 % equivalence range, the methods are shown to be equivalent both by using the CI (−12·4, 12·4 µg) and the two one-sided tests approach (lower t=−2·99 (79 df), P=0·002; upper t=2·06 (79 df), P=0·021). However, we make a case that clinical decision making should be used to set the equivalence limits, and for nutrients where there are potential issues with deficiency or toxicity stricter criteria may be needed. If the equivalence region is lowered to ±5 µg, or ±10 µg, these methods are no longer equivalent, and if a wider limit of ±15 µg is accepted they are again equivalent. Using equivalence testing, acceptable agreement must be assessed a priori and justified; this makes the process of defining agreement more transparent and results easier to interpret than relying on the LOA alone.

This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government's wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939–1945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (a) above-baseline (‘raised’) disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (b) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939–1941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.

We report on the preparation and characterization of crystalline bismuth oxide thin films via Biased Target Ion Beam Deposition method. A focused blue laser (405nm) is used to write an array of dots in the bismuth oxide thin film and demonstrate clear and circular recording marks in form of “bubbles” or “little volcanos” (FWHM ∼500nm). Results indicate excellent static recording characteristics, writing sensitivity and contrast. The recording mechanism is investigated and is believed to be related to laser-induced morphology change.

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

The use of whole-room calorimetry (WRC) in young children can increase our understanding of children's energy balance. However, studies using WRC in young children are rare due to concerns about its feasibility. To assess the feasibility of WRC in young children, forty children, aged 4–6 years, were asked to follow a graded activity protocol while in a WRC. In addition, six children participated in two additional resting protocols to examine the effect of diet-induced thermogenesis on resting energy expenditure (REE) measures and the reliability of REE measurement. Refusals to participate and data loss were quantified as measures of practical utility, and REE measured after an overnight fast and after a 90-min fast were compared. In addition, both were compared to predicted BMR values using the Schofield equation. Our results showed that thirty (78·9 %) participants had acceptable data for all intensities of the activity protocol. The REE values measured after a 90-min fast (5·07 (sd 1·04) MJ/d) and an overnight fast (4·73 (sd 0·61) MJ/d) were not significantly different from each other (P= 0·472). However, both REE after an overnight fast and a 90-min fast were significantly higher than predicted BMR (3·96 (sd 0·18) MJ/d) using the Schofield equation (P= 0·024 and 0·042, respectively). We conclude that, with a developmentally sensitive approach, WRC is feasible and can be standardised adequately even in 4- to 6-year-old children. In addition, the effect of a small standardised breakfast, approximately 90 min before REE measurements, is likely to be small.

Although the involvement of common childhood infections in the aetiology of acute appendicitis has long been conjectured, supporting evidence is largely restricted to a disparate set of clinical case reports. A systematic population-based analysis of the implied comorbid associations is lacking in the literature. Drawing on a classic epidemiological dataset, assembled by the School Epidemics Committee of the United Kingdom's Medical Research Council (MRC) in the 1930s, this paper presents a historical analysis of the association between termly outbreaks of each of six common childhood infections (chickenpox, measles, mumps, rubella, scarlet fever and whooping cough) and operated cases of acute appendicitis in 27 English public boarding schools. When controlled for the potential confounding effects of school, year and season, multivariate negative binomial regression revealed a positive association between the level of appendicitis activity and the recorded rate of mumps (β=0·15, 95% CI 0·07–0·24, P<0·001). Non-significant associations were identified between appendicitis and the other sample infectious diseases. Subject to data caveats, our findings suggest that further studies are required to determine whether the comorbid association between mumps and appendicitis is causal.

The changing seasonal patterns of reported measles cases in Iceland during this century are analysed. These changes are related to increased population mobility following the development of external and internal transport links, particularly since 1945. The forging of such links has resulted in a shift in the seasonal distribution of cases from one peculiar to the local social and economic conditions in Iceland to one broadly similar to that in other countries of northern temperate latitudes.

Using ordinary least squares regression techniques this paper demonstrates, for the first time, that the classic association of war and disease substantially accounts for the presently observed geographical distribution of reported clinical AIDS cases in Uganda. Both the spread of HIV 1 infection in the 1980s, and the subsequent development of AIDS to its 1990 spatial pattern, are shown to be significantly and positively correlated with ethnic patterns of recruitment into the Ugandan National Liberation Army (UNLA) after the overthrow of Idi Amin some 10 years earlier in 1979. This correlation reflects the estimated mean incubation period of 8–10 years for HIV 1 and underlines the need for cognizance of historical factors which may have influenced current patterns of AIDS seen in Central Africa. The findings may have important implications for AIDS forecasting and control in African countries which have recently experienced war. The results are compared with parallel analyses of other HIV hypotheses advanced to account for the reported geographical distribution of AIDS in Uganda.

The Llanrwst Pb–Zn and Llanfair–Talhaiarn Cu–Pb–Zn orefields contain vein mineralization similar to Lower Palaeozoic-hosted base metal deposits elsewhere in the British Isles, which are believed to have formed in the late Palaeozoic. K–Ar and Rb–Sr data on intensely sericitized wallrock material indicate that the main phase of mineralization at both orefields occurred between the mid-Devonian and theTournasian (386–350 Ma). The latest veins at Llanrwst formed in Visean–Westphalian times. Gangue mineral Sr isotope compositions indicate a mixture of radiogenic wallrock-derived Sr with less radiogenic Sr, with a poorly-defined trend to more radiogenic compositions with time.

The age of the main mineralization precludes dewatering of Carboniferous basins as a source of ore fluid. More generally Sr isotopes rule out unmodified basinal brines or metamorphic fluids as mineralizing agents, since their Sr content would be too radiogenic. Local sources of unradiogenic Sr are available at Llanrwst in metadolerites and calcareous sandstones and at Llanfair–Talhaiarn in thin Ludlow Limestone beds.

A binary liquid that undergoes directional solidification is susceptible to morphological instabilities which cause the solid/liquid interface to change from a planar to a cellular state. This paper presents a numerical study of a class of long-wave equations that describe the evolution of interface morphology. We find new bifurcation points, new solution branches, and the existence of inverted hexagonal nodes and cells.

We present the results of a numerical and experimental study of the five-cell flow in the Taylor vortex problem. There is evidence for a new five-cell solution which is different in nature to the previously recorded solution. We find that there is an exchange in stability between the two solutions which we explain in terms of bifurcation theory. Streamline plots of the numerical results are compared with photographs of the observed flow. The agreement between the calculations and experiments is good. We use the Schaeffer homotopy to study the new solution in the periodic model. The results show that the new solution is not connected in any continuous manner to the trivial Couette flow solution.

We compared helminth communities in spiny mice (Acomys dimidiatus) from 4 wadis in the arid montane region of the southern Sinai in Egypt, in a 4-week period in late summer. Total helminth species richness was 14 (8 nematodes, 5 cestodes and 1 acanthocephalan) with 94% of mice carrying at least 1 species and an overall mean species richness of 1·85. The most prevalent parasites were Protospirura muricola (47·8%) and Dentostomella kuntzi (46·3%). One larval cestode, Joyeuxiella rossicum, represents a new host record. The helminth community was dominated by intestinal nematodes (88·7%) of which 58·2% were arthropod-transmitted heteroxenic species. At the component community level, 70% of the worms were recovered from mice in just two wadis (Gharaba and Tlah) and 48·6% of intestinal nematodes were from Wadi Gharaba. Although only 7 species of helminths were recorded from Wadi Gharaba, this site gave the highest Berger-Parker dominance index because of P. muricola. P. muricola was also dominant in Wadi El Arbaein whilst Syphacia minuta was the dominant species in Wadis Gebal and Tlah. At the infracommunity level, mean species richness and Brillouin's index of diversity were highest in Wadi Tlah and lowest in Wadi Gebal, and the former was age dependent. Whilst mice from different wadis differed in the nematodes that were most common, those from Wadi Gharaba carried the highest mean number of worms/mouse. The abundance of P. muricola in particular varied markedly between sites: Wadi Gharaba was distinct as the site showing the highest mean worm burden whereas mice from Wadi Gebal were uninfected. None of the directly transmitted oxyuroid nematodes showed significant variation in abundance between wadis, or host sex or age classes. Overall, the single extrinsic factor in the study, site of capture, was more important than the intrinsic factors in explaining variation in helminth communities in the region. We conclude that in the high mountains of southern Sinai, each wadi is distinct in terms of its rodent parasites, and hence we expect spatially different coevolutionary pressures on their hosts, with resultant variation in life-histories.