Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T23:02:50.430Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

9 - Improving judgment and decision making through communication and representation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 December 2011

Mandeep K. Dhami
Affiliation:
University of Cambridge
Anne Schlottmann
Affiliation:
University College London
Michael R. Waldmann
Affiliation:
Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Germany
Get access

Summary

Introduction

Careful attention to ways in which information is communicated and represented can have a significant impact on what decisions will be taken, in a way that has implications for many different professions. For example, journalists can adopt strategies for reporting disasters that facilitate causal analysis and coping in the public, or methods for representing statistical data that enable the public to properly evaluate the validity of politicians’ claims. Doctors can adopt ways of talking about uncertain treatment outcomes that will either encourage or discourage a course of action by a patient. Science teachers and statisticians can adopt graphical formats that enable complex relationships to be better understood by students and the general public. Indeed, as we will show, improving the communication and representation of information that will serve as input into a decision-making process can act as a powerful “scaffold” for optimizing human decision making.

Effective design of communication with the human decision maker depends on the characteristics of the communication channel used (spoken language, verbal text, graphical representation, etc.), and of the information-processing abilities of the recipient. We begin by noting several general features of human communication and information processing that condition the way communications should be designed, before moving on to note some particular ones. We then proceed to give examples that illustrate the importance of taking these features into account. After that, we will demonstrate how the way information is communicated can have a strong impact on judgments about causality; especially in designing external representations such as graphs, one has options about what and how much information to put in, and what to make salient. The issue of external representation becomes even more important when communicating about probabilities, which we will focus on afterwards. The general idea advanced in this chapter is that appropriate ways of communication can be used as a “scaffold” to optimize judgment and decision making: communicators can help decision makers. We will give examples of scaffolding throughout the chapter and will summarize the most important recommendations at the end of it.

Type
Chapter
Information
Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill
Learning, Development and Evolution
, pp. 229 - 258
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Asch, S. 1946 Forming impressions of personalityJournal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 41 1230CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Atkins, P. W. B.Wood, R. E.Rutgers, P. J. 2002 The effects of feedback format on dynamic decision makingOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 88 587CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betsch, T.Biel, G.-M.Eddelbüttel, C.Mock, A. 1998 Natural sampling and base-rate neglectEuropean Journal of Social Psychology 28 2693.0.CO;2-U>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bodenhausen, G. 1988 Stereotypic biases in social decision-making and memory: Testing process models of stereotype useJournal of Personality and Social Psychology 55 726CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Breiman, L.Friedman, J. H.Olshen, R. A.Stone, C. J. 1993 Classification and regression treesNew YorkChapman and HallGoogle Scholar
Brockhaus, F.Sedlmeier, P. 2009
Casscells, W.Schoenberger, A.Grayboys, T. 1978 Interpretation by physicians of clinical laboratory resultsNew England Journal of Medicine 299 999CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cronin, M. A.Gonzalez, C.Sterman, J. D. 2009 Why don’t well educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizensOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 108 116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dawes, R. M. 1994 House of cards. Psychology and psychotherapy built on mythNew YorkThe Free PressGoogle Scholar
Dawes, R. M. 2001 Everyday irrationalityBoulder, COWestviewGoogle Scholar
Dulany, D. E.Hilton, D. J. 1991 Conversational implicature, conscious representations, and the conjunction fallacySocial Cognition 9 85CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eddy, D. M. 1982 Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunitiesKahneman, D.Slovic, P.Tversky, A.Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases249New YorkCambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, J.Handley, S. J.Perham, N.Over, D. E.Thompson, V. A. 2000 Frequency versus probability formats in statistical word problemsCognition 77 197CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gigerenzer, G. 2007 Gut feelings: The intelligence of the unconsciousNew YorkVikingGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G.Hertwig, R.Hoffrage, U.Sedlmeier, P. 2008 Cognitive illusions reconsideredPlott, C. R.Smith, V. L.Handbook of experimental economics results1018AmsterdamNorth-HollandCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gigerenzer, G.Hoffrage, U. 1995 How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formatsPsychological Review 102 684CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Girotto, V.Gonzalez, M. 2000 Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question formCognition 78 247CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Girotto, V.Gonzalez, M. 2002 Chances and frequencies in probabilistic reasoning: rejoinder to Hoffrage, Gigerenzer, Krauss and MartignonCognition 84 3539CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gladwell, M. 2006 Blink: The power of thinking without thinkingLondonPenguin BooksGoogle Scholar
Grice, H. P. 1975 Logic and conversationCole, P.Morgan, J. L.Syntax and Semantics 3: Speech ActsNew YorkWileyGoogle Scholar
Haller, H.Krauss, S. 2002 Misinterpretations of significance. A problem students share with their teachersMethods of Psychological Research Online 17 www.mpr-online.deGoogle Scholar
Hertwig, R.Gigerenzer, G. 1999 The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errorsJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 12 2753.0.CO;2-M>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, D. J. 1990 Conversational processes and causal explanationPsychological Bulletin 107 65CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, D. J. 1995 The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgmentPsychological Bulletin 118 248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, D. J. 2002 Thinking about causality: Pragmatic, social and scientific rationalityCarruthers, P.Stich, S.Siegal, M.The cognitive bases of science211Cambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, D. J.Slugoski, B. R. 1986 Knowledge-based causal attribution: The abnormal conditions focus modelPsychological Review 93 75CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hilton, D. J.Slugoski, B. R. 2001 The conversational perspective in reasoning and explanationTesser, A.Schwarz, N.Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology: vol I: Intrapersonal Processes181OxfordBlackwellGoogle Scholar
Hoffrage, U.Gigerenzer, G. 1998 Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferencesAcademic Medicine 73 538CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hoffrage, U.Gigerenzer, G.Krauss, S.Martignon, L. 2002 Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are notCognition 84 343CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kahneman, D.Frederick, S. 2002 Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgmentGilovich, T.Griffin, D.Kahneman, D.Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment49Cambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D.Tversky, A. 1972 Subjective probability: A judgment of representativenessCognitive Psychology 3 430CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D.Tversky, A. 1973 On the psychology of predictionPsychological Review 80 237CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D.Tversky, A. 1982 On the study of statistical intuitionsCognition 11 123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krosnick, J. A.Li, F.Lehman, D. R. 1990 Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of bases-rates and individuating information on social judgmentsJournal of Personality and Social Psychology 59 1140CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Macchi, L. 2000 Partitive formulation of information in probabilistic problems: Beyond heuristics and frequency format explanationsOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 82 217CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mayer, R. E. 2001 Multi-media learningCambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
McClure, J. L.Allen, M. W.Walkey, F. 2001 Countering fatalism: Causal information in news reports affects judgments about earthquake damageBasic and Applied Social Psychology 23 109CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mill, J. S. 1872 System of logicRobson, J. M.Collected works of John Stuart MillUniversity of Toronto PressGoogle Scholar
Miller, G. A. 1956 The magical number seven, plus or minus two. Some limits on our capacity for processing informationPsychological Review 63 81CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morgan, M. G.Fischhoff, B.Bostrom, A.Atman, C. J. 2002 Risk communication: A mental models approachCambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
Nisbett, R. E.Zukier, H.Lemley, R. E. 1981 The dilution effect: Nondiagnostic information weakens the implications of diagnostic informationCognitive Psychology 13 248CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norman, D. A. 1988 The psychology of everyday thingsNew YorkBasic BooksGoogle Scholar
Norman, D. A. 1993 Things that make us smartCambridge, MAPerseus BooksGoogle Scholar
Nunes, R.Schliemann, A. D.Carraher, D. W. 1993 Street mathematics and school mathematicsNew YorkCambridge University PressGoogle Scholar
Oakes, M. 1986 Statistical inference: A commentary for the social and behavioral sciencesChichester, UKWileyGoogle Scholar
Schwarz, N. L. 1994 Judgment in a social context: biases, shortcomings and the logic of conversationZanna, M. P.Advances in experimental social psychologyNew YorkAcademic Press123Google Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 1998 The distribution matters: Two types of sample-size tasksJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 11 2813.0.CO;2-U>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 1999 Improving statistical reasoning: Theoretical models and practical implicationsMahwah, NJLawrence Erlbaum AssociatesGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 2000 How to improve statistical thinking: Choose the task representation wisely and learn by doingInstructional Science 28 227CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 2005 From associations to intuitive judgment and decision making: Implicitly learning from experienceBetsch, T.Haberstroh, S.Experience based decision making83Mahwah, NJErlbaumGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 2006 The role of scales in student ratingsLearning and Instruction 16 401CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P. 2007 Statistical reasoning: valid intuitions put to useLovett, M.Shah, P.Thinking with data389New YorkLawrence Erlbaum AssociatesGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P.Eberth, J.Drechsler, D.Jaeger, S.Kunze, S.Haarig, F.Schenkel, M.
Sedlmeier, P.Gigerenzer, G. 1997 Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbersJournal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 333.0.CO;2-6>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sedlmeier, P.Gigerenzer, G. 2001 Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hoursJournal of Experimental Psychology: General 130 380CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shanks, D. R. 1995 The psychology of associative learningCambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sperber, D.Wilson, D. 1995 Relevance: communication and cognitionOxfordBlackwellGoogle Scholar
Sterman, J. 2000 Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex worldNew YorkMcGraw HillGoogle Scholar
Sterman, J. D.Booth Sweeney, L. 2005 Managing complex dynamic systems: Challenge and opportunity for naturalistic decision-making theoryMontgomery, H.Lipshitz, R.Brehmer, B.How professionals make decisions57Mahwah, NJErlbaumGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, P. E.Lerner, J. S.Boettger, R. 1996 The dilution effect: judgmental bias, conversational convention, or a bit of bothEuropean Journal of Social Psychology 26 9153.0.CO;2-W>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, E. R. 1983 The visual display of quantitative informationCheshire, CTGraphics PressGoogle Scholar
Tufte, E. R. 1997 Visual explanationsCheshire, CTGraphics PressGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A.Kahneman, D. 1974 Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biasesScience 185 1124CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Tversky, A.Kahneman, D. 1983 Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgmentPsychological Review 90 293CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Waldmann, M. R.Hagmayer, Y.Blaisdell, A. P. 2006 Beyond the information given: Causal models in learning and reasoningCurrent Directions in Psychological Science 15 307CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wänke, M. 2007 What is said and what is meant: Conversational implicatures in natural conversations, research settings, media and advertisingFiedler, K.Frontiers in social psychology: social communicationHove, UKPsychology PressGoogle Scholar
Wickens, C. D. 1992 Engineering psychology and human performanceNew YorkHarperCollinsGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×