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12 - Synthesis and conclusions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2009

Robert Mendelsohn
Affiliation:
Yale University, Connecticut
James E. Neumann
Affiliation:
Industrial Economics Incorporated, Cambridge, Massachusetts
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Summary

This book has sought to improve the state of the art of economic impact assessment of climate change as well as the basis for understanding the potential impacts for the United States. The team of authors involved in this effort has developed several new approaches to measure the impact of climate change on markets and, to a limited extent, nonmarket resources. These new techniques more fully incorporate adaptation, involve dynamic analysis where needed, and provide a more comprehensive analysis of seven key climate-dependent sectors (agriculture, timber, water resources, energy, coastal property, outdoor recreation, and commercial fishing). The empirical studies, taken as a group, suggest that modest warming would have a small but beneficial impact on the US economy; these results are more optimistic about global warming than past studies. This analysis of US impacts, however, does not reflect several categories of nonmarket impacts, such as health effects, aesthetics, and some ecosystem impacts. Because these consequences are omitted, the analysis does not reveal how climate will affect the quality of life. However, the comprehensive analysis of sensitive market sectors and the consistency of the climate scenario and macroeconomic assumptions provide an opportunity to synthesize and evaluate the overall impact of climate change on the US economy. In this chapter, we draw conclusions about the potential overall impact of climate change on the US economy based on the findings and uncertainties presented in the previous chapters.

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Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 1999

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