A quick glance at the world map clearly indicates that the Mongol Empire no longer exists. Yet when did it end? The last Chinggisid ruler abdicated his throne in Khiva in 1920. Yet, one could hardly say the Khanate of Khiva was the last edifice of the Mongol Empire? Do we take 1260 as the end of empire, after the death of Möngke and the beginning of the civil war between Ariq Böke and Qubilai? As we’ve seen, this war did not strengthen the empire but fractured it into four or five separate states, with Qubilai's Yuan Empire having only a hypothetical sovereignty over the others. Or do we end it in 1305 with the end of the Pax Mongolica? As the Da Yuan Empire in East Asia was seen (at least by its rulers) as simply a Chinese term for the Yeke Monggol Ulus, do we assign the end of the empire to 1368 when the Mongols were driven out of China or in 1388, when the Northern Yuan ended?88 Yet, the Jochid Ulus and Chaghatayids continued to rule, but even they did not end with a clear expiration date. Indeed, one can argue that the Mongol Empire never fell—it was never toppled by outside forces or natural disaster. Rather, it just faded away, slowly dissolving as a series of successor states emerged in its former territories as the Chinggisids gradually lost real authority even while their charisma still lingered.

In 1256, there was no reason to think the Mongol Empire would end. Not only were the Mongol armies once again on the move, but their ruler, Möngke was energetic—not only did he have a solid military reputation, but he also aggres sively reformed the administration of the empire, rooting out corruption and increasing the centralization of the state. Indeed, his policies should have ensured the continuation of the empire rather than initiate its decline. Unfortunately, the seeds for the dissolution of the empire had been planted long before the Toluid Revolution and Möngke's reign.

As with the success of the Mongols, there is no single reason for its demise. Problems with succession, territorial issues, environmental factors, religion, disease, and the failure of Chinggis Khan's meritocratic system all factored into the decline of the Mongols.