A frontier production function may be thought of as a “best practice” production function (Førsund and Jansen) or a function that expresses the maximum product obtainable from various combinations of factors given the existing state of technical knowledge. It is the theoretical counterpart to farm enterprise budgets or processing plant budgets derived by economic engineering methods to describe the best possible production processes.

I am honored by the invitation to address this group, whose members and their institutions represent such a significant portion of the unique mission of land-grant institutions in the region.

As we enter a new decade, it seems logical to take stock of the state of our profession and to attempt to assess where we may be heading and what we may be doing in the years ahead. It may be less logical or enlightening to ask a research administrator to make this assessment. Furthermore, I believe that researchers themselves should be identifying the problems and mapping out the new directions. However, there will be certain institutional constraints that will play a significant role in your ability to carry out our research mission; and it is to these constraints that I wish to speak first.

The opportunity to meet with you today is much appreciated. I certainly want to compliment you on the wide range of topics to be discussed at this conference. It provides a clue to your theme, “New Directions for the 80's.” I have a long-standing interest in Northeast agriculture and most of us here grew up and have worked in this area. And, of course, I am convinced that the Cooperative Extension Service is a most important part of the agricultural scene.

It has been ten years since I last spoke to this group; long enough for you to have forgotten what I said at that time. As an expatriate from the profession I am delighted to have this opportunity to meet with you again. I am especially pleased that you have chosen to meet here and on behalf of Dean E. J. Kersting I extend a very sincere welcome and best wishes for a successful program.

Private and public investment programs are often implemented without adequate knowledge of their employment or income distribution impacts. For example, although numerous studies have been done on the environmental and economic efficiency aspects of electricity generation alternatives, relatively little is known of who will benefit and by how much.

The Maine Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife is currently in the throes of a budgetary crisis. Negotiated employee salary increases and the general inflationary trend of the 1970's have resulted in significant increases in operating costs. The Department, like many of its counterpart agencies in other states, is funded primarily from dedicated revenues collected from the sale of hunting and fishing licenses. Since there are no built-in adjustments for inflation in license fees, as there are in sales taxes or even income taxes. Department revenues have not kept pace with costs. As a result, the Department is projecting a budget deficit of around one million dollars for FY 1980–81.

Outer space would appear to be a natural resource whose use is characterized by open access and a minimum of congestion externalities. However, over the past two decades, there has been an increase in demand for the limited number of “orbital slots” for communications satellites, and over-crowding has become a problem in space. Recent studies commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Gamble et al., 1979 and Gabriszeski et al., 1979) concluded that demand for communications satellite circuits will increase many-fold between 1982 and the end of this century. This projected increase in demand is the result of the growing number of non-military uses for satellite activities such as weather and climate data collection and remote-sensing of the earth's resources. Another is simply the growing number of nations with interests and capabilities in advanced space technology. To illustrate, membership in the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization, (Intelsat), the organization responsible for coordinating global telephone and television relays, has grown from 14 nations in 1964 to 101 in 1980.

Changes in the number and size distribution of dairy farms in the Northeast have come rapidly in the years since World War II. The objective of this study was to examine some of the newer methods of forecasting changes in this size distribution and ascertain the gains, if any, associated with these methods. Different formulations using Markov processes were compared with simple trend analyses and various functional forms in making projections. During the twenty-year period between 1958 and 1977 the number of farms delivering milk to plants in New York State decreased from slightly more than 45,800 to 16,500, a net decrease of approximately 64 percent. Over the same twenty-year period, annual milk production fluctuated between 9.8 and 11.0 billion pounds with a peak in 1965 and a low point in 1973. During the last five years, 1975–79, the number of farms delivering milk has continued to decline but milk production the the State has increased yearly and is expected to reach an all-time high in 1980. Such structural changes in the dairy industry have stimulated continued interest in problems of milk supply response and future variations in the size distribution of farms.

In recent years there has been a noticeable trend toward a small number of large farms and declining output in the Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire egg industries. This is partly due to increases in the costs of feed grains and freight rates [Skinner]. A significant change in farm income and cost after 1973 is also observed by Hwang. The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in the size distribution of egg farmers in this three-state region over time as a Markov process. Also, the occurrence of a marked structural change in the egg industry during the period 1967 to 1978 is statistically examined. We also seek answers to questions such as the following: how many years can different-size egg farms survive in the face of increasing feed and energy costs? What will be the size distribution of egg farms, total number of layers, and egg output in the next decade?

Researchers and extension personnel interested in dairy systems recognize the importance of high quality hay. It is generally assumed that feeding a higher quality hay should result in increased quantities of hay in the least cost balanced ration and thereby reduce total ration cost (Chase). The objective of this article is to quantify the direction and magnitude of changes in dairy cow ration composition and cost with increased hay crop quality.

Potatoes suitable for frozen french fries are harvested in the fall and then apportioned for the rest of the year by processors. This involves storage in either fresh or frozen form. Participants in both the fresh and french fry market consider the level of frozen french fry stocks to be an important determinant of activity in these markets and therefore use stock information to form price expectations [Phillips et al., 16–18]. The ability to forecast the future level of stocks with some accuracy would undoubtedly be an additional aid in developing market strategies. This paper provides one means of forecasting frozen french fry stocks.

Entering the decade of the 80's, the U.S. faces a number of difficult challenges carried over from the decade just ended. A pressing domestic problem is that of poverty, and its many manifestations. Major cities are confronted with a particularly difficult problem. Concentrations of low-income persons, unemployment, congestion, dilapidated structures, high crime rates, struggling education systems, and deteriorated business and economic conditions, create a seemingly impossible morass of redevelopment problems. One aspect of the decline of the cities that has had particularly serious consequences, is the gradual deterioration of the food delivery system there. It is especially critical because of its implications for the diets and budgets of low-income families.

During the past decade, the significance of international trade for the United States’ economy has changed dramatically. In 1970, merchandise exports were $43 billion and accounted for five percent of the Gross National Product (GNP); merchandise imports amounted to $40 billion (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis). By 1977, such exports had increased to almost $120 billion and imports to $150 billion, in both cases a rate of increase almost double that for GNP over the same period.

The use of traditional multipliers in analyzing the impact of alternative development policies should only be undertaken with a full understanding of the theoretical constraints inherent in such an approach. Theoretical input-output models assume perfectly elastic supply of all inputs and demand for all outputs. Thus, traditional multipliers abstract from the relative size of changes in final demand, or production, since any change is theoretically possible. In actuality, supply and demand elasticities are not infinite. It may not be possible to increase sales to final demand by 300 percent; nor (due to land, labor or capital input scarcities) is it likely that a sector's production can increase by 100 percent. Therefore, in practice, some measure of the feasibility of a proposed change needs to be considered.

Economic base studies are an accepted economic tool for regional economic analysis. The economic base concept was first set forth as early as 1928 in a regional study of New York City. The economic base concept gained maturity through the work of Homer Hoyt in the 1930's. The first complete statement of the theory of economic base is contained in a text written by Weiner and Hoyt.

New Jersey is the most urbanized state in the nation; correspondingly, it also has the highest motor vehicle density, averaging 467 vehicles per square mile in 1976. In some metropolitan areas of the state, vehicle density may exceed 15,000 vehicles per square mile (New Jersey, Department of Environmental Protection 1976). Motor vehicles are considered responsible for significant emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides (New Jersey, Department of Environmental Protection 1978). Because of growing concern about these emissions, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) decided to adopt an in-use motor vehicle exhaust emission testing program; this could be incorporated easily into the already-existing automotive safety inspection program and thus was calculated to be more cost effective than alternative strategies as well as being less disruptive to the state's transportation system (New Jersey).

Economic activity producing primary goods and services often generates secondary “products” or residuals. For those residuals that are highly toxic, the only alternatives are complete destruction or long-term storage in some safe and efficient manner. But for certain residuals that are biodegradable, such as animal wastes and sewage sludges (relatively free of heavy metals), recycling is possible, particularly through soil incorporation and eventual plant uptake. These residuals, on a dry weight basis, will normally contain some nitrogen, phosphorus and potash (less than 10 percent total), and organic matter of at least 50 percent.

Researchers are well aware that each technique for administering surveys has its own advantages and disadvantages. Direct interviews, either by telephone or in person, have a relatively high cost per contact but usually result in a higher percentage of questionnaire completions and greater control of the response quality. Mail surveys can be conducted at a lower per unit cost but are often characterized by lower response rates and an overall poorer quality of completed questionnaires. Even with follow-up mailings, recent studies at the University of Maine suggest that response rates of 35 to 45 percent can be expected on general land use surveys or recreation studies.

For the past two decades, New Hampshire has faced rapidly increasing population levels with the main thrust occurring in the southern portion of the State. For example, between 1960 and 1975, it is estimated that New Hampshire's population has increased by approximately 35 percent (New Hampshire Office of Comprehensive Planning [1978]). Employment has grown 105.6 percent between 1940 and 1970 for the three southern counties of the State (United States Department of Commerce [1975]). This trend of economic and population expansion has important implications for the State as a whole. These phenomena have put a severe strain upon the provision of municipal services, inflated land prices and increased property taxes. How New Hampshire as a state will deal with its situation in future years will depend in part on two parameters: (1) the value judgments (or lack thereof) contained in policy decisions about how development should expand, and (2) the amount and comprehensiveness of information supplied on which to base decisions. It is the latter parameter to which this paper addresses itself.