Nigeria, an oil-producing country, remains Africa’s largest country in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), in addition to having the continent’s largest population size. No doubt, events in Nigeria therefore tend to attract the attention of the international community, given its potential as an economic powerhouse. However, since gaining independence in 1960, the country has struggled to translate its economic fortunes into benefits for its citizenry and has instead continued to reinforce clientelist interests and rent-seeking.
Academics and policymakers alike have sought to understand the realities of these contradictions, which have prevented the country from achieving its potential. In her book Economic Diversification in Nigeria, Zainab Usman offers a compelling argument that explains the country’s dilemma through rigorous and thought-provoking analysis substantiated by empirical evidence.
Prevailing frameworks for understanding the failures of oil-rich countries in sustaining economic growth have mostly dwelt on narratives such as the ‘oil curse’ and ‘neo-patrimonial culture’. The basis of these analytical constructs is not only shallow and insufficient; it also fails to offer a comprehensive framework for understanding the intricacies and dynamics that inform the absence of economic growth and development in a complex country such as Nigeria.
The author instead adopts a political settlement framework of analysis for understanding these complexities. As posited by the author, the nature of a country’s political settlement shapes policymaking and economic outcomes. Adopting such a framework thereby offers useful insights beyond the traditional approaches to explaining the woes of monolithic product economies that have failed to diversify.
According to the author, policy reforms in Nigeria have mostly focused on crisis management rather than economic diversification. The implications of this argument are demonstrated in a lack of the proactive economic foresight and planning that are required to cushion the effects of unforeseen contingencies, such as economic shocks occasioned by fluctuations in oil prices. When such events occur, they tend to disrupt budgetary allocations in Nigeria. This is reflected particularly in the overdependence on oil revenues by sub-national entities in Nigeria, from the federal government to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC).
The author therefore argues, and rightly so, that Nigeria is neither a failed state nor a developmental state, but rather an intermediate state, capable of episodic economic reforms but falling short of actually driving industrial transformation. Using Lagos State, the commercial capital of Nigeria, as an example, the author provides a rich account of the political foundations of economic diversification emanating from within the country. By way of contrast, Usman also explains the political foundations of Nigeria’s failed attempt at transitioning to agro-industrialization in Kano State. These examples not only reflect the inherent contradictions in Nigeria’s economic experimentation, but also offer useful insights and lessons for understanding what has worked and what has not.
In a departure from most works on economic diversification, which stop at deconstructing the causes of economic stagnation, the author concludes by offering useful recommendations for policymakers on what can be done to address the salient issues identified. These recommendations include the need to: conceptualize economic diversification as a political project of development; stabilize Nigeria’s volatile balance of power; develop a shared vision for transforming the Nigerian economy; and proactively tackle market failures as a priority for a post-oil Nigeria. Her final recommendation highlights the critical need to update our mental models on the challenges of economic development.
Overall, the book is well researched and well written. It also inspires a sense of renewed hope and urgency, addressing what needs to be done to get Nigeria from where it is to where it ought to be. A must-read for students, scholars, policymakers and stakeholders interested in understanding the politics, challenges and opportunities of emerging economies and the all-important subject of economic diversification in an increasingly complex world. I strongly recommend Economic Diversification in Nigeria as a go-to source for an in-depth understanding of Nigeria’s attempts at economic diversification, beyond the soundbites.
