During a conference on “Democracy under Pressure” that took place in November 1992 under the aegis of the North-South Center, a Venezuelan political scientist observed that, when all is said and done, the much-touted changes in the Venezuelan political system will probably not amount to much. The two major parties, which have exercised a near monopoly over electoral politics for the past 20 years, would doubtless pull in 80% of the vote in December (1992), only this time with strong local and regional leaders running as candidates.
Some politicians, government officials, and political analysts in Venezuela would agree that electoral reform, decentralization, and the growth of neighborhood associations — features of Venezuelan political life which have become increasingly marked over the last 15 years — do not alter or challenge the status quo in any fundamental way. On the other hand, there are also a number of political activists and commentators who, despite some disagreement as to the future direction of these changes, would argue that these developments are extremely significant.