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On Money and the Future Rate of Interest

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 April 2013

Extract

Gentlemen,—I thank you very heartily for the honour which you have conferred upon me by electing me your President for this session. It is an honour of which any one might be proud: and one for which, bestowed on me, who have so recently come amongst you, I have reason to be especially grateful.

In following the now time-honoured custom of delivering an Introductory Address to you on assuming this Chair, I had to consider how I could best fulfil the duty imposed npon me. I have not, as you are aware, as some of your former Presidents have done, devoted the whole, or even the greater part, of my life to actuarial study, and I was unwilling therefore to take, as the subject of these remarks, any matter of purely actuarial doubt and difficulty. But I have all my life been engaged in general business, and frequently been occupied with subjects which required some knowledge of finance. In these I have been ever met by the unknown quantities,—the value of money, and the future rate of interest. In everything relating to the success of Insurance Offices a knowledge of these values is likewise of paramount necessity, for, however accurately your facts as to mortality are stated, however skilfully your formulæ are framed, if a mistake is made as to the value of money or rate of interest, error will be the result.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1886

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References

page 163 note 1 There cannot be a doubt that in some respects the material progress which we have made in recent years in science to a very great extent affects the money market. Bankers complain of the absence of demand for mercantile bills, and complain that they are obliged to become competitors for short loans on the Stock Exchange at reduced rates of interest. This arises in consequence of the rapidity with which money can be sent by the telegraph, and of the rapidity with which cargoes can be sent from one port to another. To conduct the same business as formerly a much smaller capital is required. With the same capital a much larger business can be transacted, and we should greatly err in estimating the future value of capital and the amount required if we did not take these important influences into account.