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Investissement public et effets non linéaires des déficits budgétaires

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Alexandria Minea
Affiliation:
LEO, Université d'Orléans
Patrick Villieu*
Affiliation:
LEO, Université d'Orléans
*
**LEO, Faculté de Droit, Rue de Blois, B.P. 6739, 45067 Orléans Cedex 2, France. Email: patrick.villieu@univ-orleans.fr.
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Résumé

Dans cet article, nous proposons un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'impact du déficit budgétaire sur les dépenses publiques d'investissement dépend du niveau de dette publique (en pourcentage du PIB). Lorsque la dette publique est faible, l'impact du déficit est positif, car la charge de la dette peut être absorbée par une diminution des dépenses de consommation. Lorsque la dette est très élevée, en revanche, il n'est plus possible de réduire les dépenses de consommation, et l'ajustement s'opère par les dépenses d'investissement, de sorte que la relation entre déficit et dépenses publiques d'investissement devient négative. Une analyse empirique menée dans un modèle économétrique avec effets de seuil en panel sur 22 pays de l'OCDE vient confirmer cette non linéarité.

Summary

Summary

We propose a simple growth model in which the influence of fiscal deficits on public investment depends upon the ratio between public debt and GDP. When the public debt ratio is small, raising fiscal deficits yields positive effects, since public consumption may negatively adjust to the extra debt burden. However, when the public debt ratio is important, public consumption may no longer exert this role, and raising fiscal deficits reduces public investment. Our analysis using a panel data for OECD countries confirms the existence of non linear effects of fiscal deficits on public investment.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2009 

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Footnotes

*

LEO, Faculté de Droit, d'Economie et de Gestion, Rue de Blois, B.P. 6739, 45067 Orleans Cedex 2, France. Email: alexandru.minea@univ-orleans.fr.

References

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