Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-8bljj Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-25T09:03:47.670Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Radiocarbon Calibration Curves: The IntCal09 Methodology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 July 2016

T J Heaton ,
P G Blackwell  and
C E Buck
T J Heaton*
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
P G Blackwell
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
C E Buck
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
*
1Corresponding author. Email: t.heaton@shef.ac.uk.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed 14C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation approach taken uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler, which offers improved flexibility and reliability over the approaches used in the past. In particular, the method allows accurate modeling of calibration data with 14C determinations that arise from material deposited over several consecutive calendar years and that exhibit complex uncertainty structures on their calendar date estimates (arising from methods such as wiggle-matching and varve counting).

Type
Articles
Information
Radiocarbon , Volume 51 , Issue 4 , 2009 , pp. 1151 - 1164
Copyright
Copyright © The Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona 

References

Bard, E, Hamelin, B, Fairbanks, RG, Zindler, A. 1990. Calibration of the 14C timescale over the past 30,000 years using mass spectrometric U-Th ages from Barbados corals. Nature 345(6274):405–10.Google Scholar
Bard, E, Rostek, F, Ménot-Combes, G. 2004. A better radiocarbon clock. Science 303(5655):178–9.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blackwell, PG, Buck, CE. 2008. Estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. Bayesian Analysis 3(2):225–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buck, CE, Blackwell, PG. 2004. Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. Radiocarbon 46(3):1093–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burr, GS, Beck, JW, Taylor, FW, Recy, J, Edwards, RL, Cabioch, G, Corrège, T, Donahue, DJ, O'Malley, JM. 1998. A high-resolution radiocarbon calibration between 11,700 and 12,400 calendar years BP derived from 230Th ages of corals from Espiritu Santo Island, Vanuatu. Radiocarbon 40(3):1093–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casella, G, George, EI. 1992. Explaining the Gibbs sampler. The American Statistician 46(3):167–74.Google Scholar
Cutler, KB, Gray, SC, Burr, GS, Edwards, RL, Taylor, FW, Cabioch, G, Beck, JW, Cheng, H, Moore, J. 2004. Radiocarbon calibration to 50 kyr BP with paired 14C and 230Th dating of corals from Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Radiocarbon 46(3):1127–60.Google Scholar
Edwards, RL, Beck, JW, Burr, GS, Donahue, DJ, Chappell, JMA, Druffel, ERM, Taylor, FW. 1993. A large drop in atmospheric 14C/12C and reduced melting in the Younger Dryas with 230Th ages of corals. Science 260(5110):962–8.Google Scholar
Fairbanks, RG, Mortlock, RA, Chiu, T-C, Cao, L, Kaplan, A, Guilderson, TP, Fairbanks, TW, Bloom, A, Grootes, PM, Nadeau, M-J. 2005. Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/234U/238U and 14C dates on pristine corals. Quaternary Science Reviews 24(16–17):1781–96.Google Scholar
Hughen, KA, Southon, JR, Bertrand, CJH, Frantz, B, Zermeño, P. 2004. Cariaco Basin calibration update: revisions to calendar and 14C chronologies for core PL07–58PC. Radiocarbon 46(3):1161–87.Google Scholar
Hughen, K, Southon, J, Bertrand, C, Turnbull, J. 2006. Marine-derived 14C calibration and activity record for the past 50,000 years updated from the Cariaco Basin. Quaternary Science Reviews 25(3–24):3216–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reimer, PJ, Baillie, MGL, Bard, E, Bayliss, A, Beck, JW, Bertrand, CJH, Blackwell, PG, Buck, CE, Burr, GS, Cutler, KB, Damon, PE, Edwards, RL, Fairbanks, RG, Friedrich, M, Guilderson, TP, Hogg, AG, Hughen, KA, Kromer, B, McCormac, G, Manning, S, Bronk Ramsey, C, Reimer, RW, Remmele, S, Southon, JR, Stuiver, M, Talamo, S, Taylor, FW, van der Plicht, J, Weyhenmeyer, CE. 2004. IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0–26 cal kyr BP. Radiocarbon 46(3):1029–58.Google Scholar
Reimer, PJ, Baillie, MGL, Bard, E, Bayliss, A, Beck, JW, Blackwell, PG, Bronk Ramsey, C, Buck, CE, Burr, GS, Edwards, RL, Friedrich, M, Grootes, PM, Guilderson, TP, Hajdas, I, Heaton, TJ, Hogg, AG, Hughen, KA, Kaiser, KF, Kromer, B, McCormac, FG, Manning, SW, Reimer, RW, Richards, DA, Southon, JR, Talamo, S, Turney, CSM, van der Plicht, J, Weyhenmeyer, CE. IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon age calibration curves, 0–50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, this issue.Google Scholar
Weninger, B, Jöris, O. 2008. A 14C age calibration curve for the last 60 ka: the Greenland-HULU U-Th timescale and its impact on understanding the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition in Western Eurasia. Journal of Human Evolution 55(5):772–81.Google Scholar