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PROXY FORECASTS: A WORKING STRATEGY
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 January 2013
Extract
Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points.
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- Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
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- Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013
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