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State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Bruno Jérôme
Affiliation:
Université Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas
Véronique Jérôme
Affiliation:
Université Paris-Sud Saclay
Philippe Mongrain
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
Richard Nadeau
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal

Abstract

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Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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References

Berry, Michael J., and Bickers, Kenneth N.. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 669–74.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 386407.10.2307/2111483CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E., Ali, Syed, and Jalalzai, Farida. 2006. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948–2004.” Journal of Political Marketing 5 (1-2): 3357.10.1300/J199v05n01_03CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno. 2020. “State-Level Forecasts for the 2020 US Presidential Election: Tough Victory Ahead for Biden.” Harvard Dataverse. doi:10.7910/DVN/QUPBSR.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2012a. “Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election: Comparing Vote Function Simulations and Vote Intention Polls.” French Politics 10 (1): 2243.10.1057/fp.2011.22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2012b. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 663–68.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2016. “State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 680–86.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark Andreas, and Leininger, Arndt. 2017. “A Länder-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): 689–92.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E. 2012. “State-Level Forecasts of the 2012 Federal and Gubernatorial Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 655–62.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.10.2307/j.ctt1xp3vfxCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tiebout, Charles M. 1956. “A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures.” Journal of Political Economy 64 (3): 416–24.10.1086/257839CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Jérôme et al. Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Jérôme et al. supplementary material

Appendix

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