Hostname: page-component-77c89778f8-sh8wx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-21T20:16:02.522Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The PollyVote’s Long-Term Forecast for the 2017 German Federal Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 June 2017

Andreas Graefe*
Affiliation:
Macromedia Hochschule & Columbia University

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2017 German Elections
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr.. 2005. “How We Computed the PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 51–2.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013.” German Politics 24 (2): 195204. doi: 10.1080/09644008.2015.1024240.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2017a. “Political Markets.” In SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behavior, edited by Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., in press. SAGE.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2017b. “Prediction Market Performance in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2009. “Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2009 (12): 4142.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014a. “Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 427–31. doi: 10.1017/S1049096514000341.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014b. “Combining forecasts: An application to elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 4354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2017. “Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts.” In The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of an Electoral Earthquake, eds., Cavari, Amnon, Powell, Richard and Mayer, Kenneth, in press. Lexington.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2017. PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.Google Scholar
Jones, Randall J. Jr. and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. “Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation.” Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Chicago.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt. 2017. “A Länder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut and Gschwend, Thomas. 2017. “Chancellor Model Predicts a Chaning of the Guards in Germany.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.Google Scholar