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The PollyVote’s Long-Term Forecast for the 2017 German Federal Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 June 2017

Andreas Graefe*
Affiliation:
Macromedia Hochschule & Columbia University

Abstract

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Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2017 German Elections
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

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References

Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr.. 2005. “How We Computed the PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 51–2.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013.” German Politics 24 (2): 195204. doi: 10.1080/09644008.2015.1024240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2017a. “Political Markets.” In SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behavior, edited by Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S., in press. SAGE.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2017b. “Prediction Market Performance in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting (forthcoming).Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2009. “Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 2009 (12): 4142.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014a. “Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election: The PollyVote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 427–31. doi: 10.1017/S1049096514000341.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014b. “Combining forecasts: An application to elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 4354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2017. “Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts.” In The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of an Electoral Earthquake, eds., Cavari, Amnon, Powell, Richard and Mayer, Kenneth, in press. Lexington.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique, and Lewis-Beck, Michael S.. 2017. PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.
Jones, Randall J. Jr. and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. “Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation.” Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Chicago.Google Scholar
Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt. 2017. “A Länder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut and Gschwend, Thomas. 2017. “Chancellor Model Predicts a Chaning of the Guards in Germany.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (3): this issue.Google Scholar
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