Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Home
Hostname: page-component-5c569c448b-bmzkg Total loading time: 0.309 Render date: 2022-07-02T09:22:07.720Z Has data issue: true Feature Flags: { "shouldUseShareProductTool": true, "shouldUseHypothesis": true, "isUnsiloEnabled": true, "useRatesEcommerce": false, "useNewApi": true } hasContentIssue true

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Peter K. Enns
Affiliation:
Cornell University
Julius Lagodny
Affiliation:
Cornell University

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. 2016. “Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 659–60.Google Scholar
Berry, Michael J., and Bickers, Kenneth N.. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 669–74.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2016. “Forecasting the 2016 American National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 649–54.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., Ali, Syed, and Jalalzai, Farida. 2006. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948–2004.” Journal of Political Marketing 5 (1–2): 3357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enns, Peter K., and Koch, Julianna. 2013. “Public Opinion in the U.S. States: 1956 to 2010.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 13 (3): 349–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enns, Peter K., and Lagodny, Julius. 2020. “Replication Data for Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model.” Harvard Dataverse. doi:10.7910/DVN/ADMBN9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enns, Peter K., Lagodny, Julius, and Schuldt, Jonathon P.. 2017. “Understanding the 2016 US Presidential Polls: The Importance of Hidden Trump Supporters.” Statistics, Politics, and Policy 8 (1): 4163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2016. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 204–32.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Little, Thomas C.. 1997. “Poststratification into Many Categories Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression.” Survey Methodology 23 (2): 127–35.Google Scholar
Hummel, Patrick, and Rothschild, David. 2014. “Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections at the State Level.” Electoral Studies 35 (1): 123–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jerôme, Bruno, and Jerôme-Speziari, V́eronique. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 663–68.Google Scholar
Jerôme, Bruno, and Jerôme-Speziari, V́eronique. 2016. “State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 680–86.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E. 2012. “State-Level Forecasts of the 2012 Federal and Gubernatorial Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 655–62.Google Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009. “How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States?American Journal of Political Science 53:107–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tien, Charles. 2016. “The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 661–63.Google Scholar
Pacheco, Julianna. 2014. “Measuring and Evaluating Changes in State Opinion Across Eight Issues.” American Politics Research 42 (6): 9861009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, Daniel M., Wu, Jennifer A., Yoder, Jesse, and Hall, Andrew B.. 2020. “Universal Vote-By-Mail Has No Impact on Partisan Turnout or Vote Share.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (25): 14052–56.Google ScholarPubMed
Supplementary material: Link

Enns and Lagodny Dataset

Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Enns and Lagodny supplementary material

Enns and Lagodny supplementary material

Download Enns and Lagodny supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 287 KB
2
Cited by

Save article to Kindle

To save this article to your Kindle, first ensure coreplatform@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
Available formats
×

Save article to Dropbox

To save this article to your Dropbox account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Dropbox account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
Available formats
×

Save article to Google Drive

To save this article to your Google Drive account, please select one or more formats and confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you used this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your Google Drive account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Forecasting the 2020 Electoral College Winner: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
Available formats
×
×

Reply to: Submit a response

Please enter your response.

Your details

Please enter a valid email address.

Conflicting interests

Do you have any conflicting interests? *