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Forecasting Solar Energetic Particle Events and Associated False Alarms

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Bill Swalwell Open the ORCID record for Bill Swalwell [Opens in a new window] ,
Silvia Dalla Open the ORCID record for Silvia Dalla [Opens in a new window]  and
Robert Walsh
Bill Swalwell
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire, PR1 2HE, United Kingdom email: bswalwell@uclan.ac.uk
Silvia Dalla
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire, PR1 2HE, United Kingdom email: bswalwell@uclan.ac.uk
Robert Walsh
Affiliation:
Jeremiah Horrocks Institute, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire, PR1 2HE, United Kingdom email: bswalwell@uclan.ac.uk
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Abstract

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Because of the significant dangers they pose, accurate forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is vital. Whilst it has long been known that SEP-production is associated with high-energy solar events, forecasting algorithms based upon the observation of these types of solar event suffer from high false alarm rates. Here we analyse the parameters of 4 very high energy solar events which were false alarms, with a view to reaching an understanding as to why SEPs were not detected at Earth. We find that in each case at least two factors were present which have been shown to be detrimental to SEP production.

Keywords

Sun: flarescoronal mass ejectionsparticle emission
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 324 - 327
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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