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Statistical analysis of geomagnetic storms and their relation with the solar cycle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 September 2020

Paula Reyes
Affiliation:
Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile emails: paula.reyes.n@gmail.com, pablo.moya@uchile.cl
Victor A. Pinto
Affiliation:
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire Durham, New Hampshire, USA
Pablo S. Moya
Affiliation:
Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile emails: paula.reyes.n@gmail.com, pablo.moya@uchile.cl
Corresponding

Abstract

Geomagnetic storms can be modeled as stochastic processes with log-normal probability distribution function over their minimum Dst index value measured during the main phase of each event. Considering a time series of geomagnetic storm events between 1957 and 2019 we have analyzed the probability of occurrence of small, moderate, strong and extreme events. The data were separated according to solar cycle (SC) and solar cycle phases and fitted through maximum likelihood method in order to compare rates of occurrence of the last Solar Cycle (SC24) with previous ones. Our results show that for Dst < – 100 nT events in SC24 are similar to those in SC20, obtaining ⁓42 vs 21 median rate storms per cycle with 95% confidence intervals using Bootstrap Method. As SC24 has been the least active solar cycle in over 200 years, we conclude that this method tends to overestimate geomagnetic storms occurrence rates even for small events.

Type
Contributed Papers
Copyright
© International Astronomical Union 2020

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References

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