Transparency is often viewed as crucial to government accountability, but its measurement remains elusive. This concept encompasses many dimensions, which have distinct effects. In this article, we focus on a specific dimension of transparency: governments' collection and dissemination of aggregate data. We construct a measure of this aspect of transparency, using an item response model that treats transparency as a latent predictor of the reporting of data to the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The resultant index covers 125 countries from 1980 to 2010. Unlike some alternatives (e.g., Freedom House), our measure—the HRV index—is based on objective criteria rather than subjective expert judgments. Unlike newspaper circulation numbers, HRV reflects the dissemination of credible content—in that it has survived the World Bank's quality control assessment. In a validation exercise, we find that our measure outperforms newspaper circulation as a predictor of Law and Order and Bureaucratic Quality as measured by the ICRG, particularly in autocracies. It performs as well as newspaper circulation in predicting corruption. These findings suggest that data dissemination is a distinct, and politically relevant, form of transparency.

In this article, we challenge the conclusion that the preferences of members of Congress are best represented as existing in a low-dimensional space. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations altering assumptions regarding the dimensionality and distribution of member preferences and scale the resulting roll call matrices. Our simulations show that party polarization generates misleading evidence in favor of low dimensionality. This suggests that the increasing levels of party polarization in recent Congresses may have produced false evidence in favor of a low-dimensional policy space. However, we show that focusing more narrowly on each party caucus in isolation can help researchers discern the true dimensionality of the policy space in the context of significant party polarization. We re-examine the historical roll call record and find evidence suggesting that the low dimensionality of the contemporary Congress may reflect party polarization rather than changes in the dimensionality of policy conflict.

International relations scholars frequently rely on data sets with country pairs, or dyads, as the unit of analysis. Dyadic data, with its thousands and sometimes hundreds of thousands of observations, may seem ideal for hypothesis testing. However, dyadic observations are not independent events. Failure to account for this dependence in the data dramatically understates the size of standard errors and overstates the power of hypothesis tests. We illustrate this problem by analyzing a central proposition among IR scholars, the democratic trade hypothesis, which claims that democracies seek out other democracies as trading partners. We employ randomization tests to infer the correct p-values associated with the trade hypotheses. Our results show that typical statistical tests for significance are severely overconfident when applied to dyadic data.

Multifactor error structures utilize factor analysis to deal with complex cross-sectional dependence in Time-Series Cross-Sectional data caused by cross-level interactions. The multifactor error structure specification is a generalization of the fixed-effects model. This article extends the existing multifactor error models from panel econometrics to multilevel modeling, from linear setups to generalized linear models with the probit and logistic links, and from assuming serial independence to modeling the error dynamics with an autoregressive process. I develop Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms mixed with a rejection sampling scheme to estimate the multilevel multifactor error structure model with a pth-order autoregressive process in linear, probit, and logistic specifications. I conduct several Monte Carlo studies to compare the performance of alternative specifications and approaches with varying degrees of data complication and different sample sizes. The Monte Carlo studies provide guidance on when and how to apply the proposed model. An empirical application sovereign default demonstrates how the proposed approach can accommodate a complex pattern of cross-sectional dependence and helps answer research questions related to units' sensitivity or vulnerability to systemic shocks.

We consider the relative performance of two common approaches to multiple imputation (MI): joint multivariate normal (MVN) MI, in which the data are modeled as a sample from a joint MVN distribution; and conditional MI, in which each variable is modeled conditionally on all the others. In order to use the multivariate normal distribution, implementations of joint MVN MI typically assume that categories of discrete variables are probabilistically constructed from continuous values. We use simulations to examine the implications of these assumptions. For each approach, we assess (1) the accuracy of the imputed values; and (2) the accuracy of coefficients and fitted values from a model fit to completed data sets. These simulations consider continuous, binary, ordinal, and unordered-categorical variables. One set of simulations uses multivariate normal data, and one set uses data from the 2008 American National Election Studies. We implement a less restrictive approach than is typical when evaluating methods using simulations in the missing data literature: in each case, missing values are generated by carefully following the conditions necessary for missingness to be “missing at random” (MAR). We find that in these situations conditional MI is more accurate than joint MVN MI whenever the data include categorical variables.

Latent class analysis is used in the political science literature in both substantive applications and as a tool to estimate measurement error. Many studies in the social and political sciences relate estimated class assignments from a latent class model to external variables. Although common, such a “three-step” procedure effectively ignores classification error in the class assignments; Vermunt (2010, “Latent class modeling with covariates: Two improved three-step approaches,” Political Analysis 18:450–69) showed that this leads to inconsistent parameter estimates and proposed a correction. Although this correction for bias is now implemented in standard software, inconsistency is not the only consequence of classification error. We demonstrate that the correction method introduces an additional source of variance in the estimates, so that standard errors and confidence intervals are overly optimistic when not taking this into account. We derive the asymptotic variance of the third-step estimates of interest, as well as several candidate-corrected sample estimators of the standard errors. These corrected standard error estimators are evaluated using a Monte Carlo study, and we provide practical advice to researchers as to which should be used so that valid inferences can be obtained when relating estimated class membership to external variables.