Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-ws8qp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T15:48:01.965Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Explaining Post-Soviet Ethnic Conflicts: Using Regime Type to Discern the Impact and Relative Importance of Objective Antecedents

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2018

Shale Horowitz*
Affiliation:
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Extract

The collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed a number of violent, usually secessionist ethnic conflicts. These conflicts were typically intensified (or “escalated”) by foreign intervention. Although there is a great deal of consensus about the fundamental forces driving these conflicts and their escalation, there remain considerable theoretical differences about how to understand these factors and assess their relative importance. These differences mirror debates in the broader literature on national identity and its consequences. This article seeks to clarify these debates by elucidating some theoretical distinctions among the factors taken to contribute to the outbreak and escalation of violent ethnic conflicts. These distinctions are then applied to post-Soviet conflicts in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Tajikistan. The case studies bear out the relevance of the theoretical distinctions, but also reveal the difficulty of applying them unambiguously in any given case. These examples form the basis for some concluding suggestions. These suggestions aim to maximize the clarity with which theoretically distinct causal factors are empirically distinguished for purposes of testing hypotheses.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2001 Association for the Study of Nationalities 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Notes

1. For example, Gurr, Ted Robert and Moore, Will H., “Ethnopolitical Rebellion: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessment for the 1990s,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 4, 1997; Charles Ingrao, “Understanding Ethnic Conflict in Central Europe: An Historical Perspective,” Nationalities Papers, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1999; Rita Jalali and Seymour Martin Lipset, “Racial and Ethnic Conflicts: A Global Perspective,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 107, No. 4, 1992–1993; Gail Lapidus, “Ethnonationalism and Political Stability: The Soviet Case,” World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4, 1984; Robin M. Williams, Jr, “The Sociology of Ethnic Conflicts: Comparative International Perspectives,” Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 20, 1994; Margaret Wyszomirski, “Communal Violence: The Armenians and the Copts as Case Studies,” World Politics, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1975.Google Scholar

2. For example, Fearon, James D., “Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict,” in Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald, eds, The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998); Gurr and Moore, “Ethnopolitical Rebellion;” Stephen M. Saideman, “Is Pandora's Box Half Empty or Half Full? The Limited Virulence of Secessionism and the Domestic Sources of Disintegration,” in Lake and Rothchild, eds, The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict, Williams, “Sociology of Ethnic Conflicts.”Google Scholar

3. For example, Fearon, , “Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict;” Roeder, Philip G., “Soviet Federalism and Ethnic Mobilization,” World Politics, Vol. 43, No. 2, 1991; Williams, “Sociology of Ethnic Conflicts.”CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4. For example, Davis, David R., Jaggers, Keith and Moore, Will H., “Ethnicity, Minorities, and International Conflict Patterns,” in David W. Carment and Patrick James, eds, The International Politics of Ethnic Conflict (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1997); Alexis Heraclides, “Secessionist Minorities and External Involvement,” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 3, 1990; Will H. Moore and David R. Davis, “Transnational Ethnic Ties and Foreign Policy,” in Lake and Rothchild, eds, The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict; Fearon, “Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict;” Stephen M. Saideman and R. William Ayres, “Determining the Causes of Irredentism: Logit Analysis of Minorities at Risk Data from the 1980s and 1990s,” Journal of Politics, Vol. 62, No. 4, 2000.Google Scholar

5. For example, David Carment and Patrick James, “Internal Constraints and Interstate Ethnic Conflict: Towards a Crisis-Based Assessment of Irredentism,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1995; Samuel Clark, “International Competition and the Treatment of Minorities: Seventeenth Century Cases and General Propositions,” American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 103, No. 5, 1998; Alexis Heraclides, “Secessionist Minorities and External Involvement.”CrossRefGoogle Scholar

6. For example, Clark, Samuel, “International Competition and the Treatment of Minorities;” Williams, “Sociology of Ethnic Conflicts.”Google Scholar

7. For examples of positions along this spectrum, see Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities (London: Verso, 1991); Walker Connor, Ethnonationalism: The Quest for Understanding (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); Ernest Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Oxford: Blackwell, 1983); Michael Hechter, “The Political Economy of Ethnic Change,” American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 79, No. 5, 1974; Anthony Smith, The Ethnic Origins of Nations (Oxford: Blackwell, 1986).Google Scholar

8. Due to space constraints, it is not possible to give self-contained narratives of the ethnic conflicts. The focus will be on discussing the variables hypothesized to be particularly important in explaining the origins and escalation of the conflicts.Google Scholar

9. Alstadt, Audrey, “Azerbaijan's Struggle toward Democracy,” in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds, Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 111114, 141–144; Michael Croissant, The Armenian–Azerbaijani Conflict: Causes and Implications (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1998), pp. 1–20; Nora Dudwick, “Armenia: Paradise Regained or Lost?” in Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras, eds, New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 472–482; Ronald Grigor Suny, Looking toward Ararat: Armenia in Modern History (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1993).Google Scholar

10. Alstadt, , “Azerbaijan's Struggle toward Democracy,” pp. 116–36; Croissant, Armenian–Azerbaijani Conflict, pp. 2547, 77–91; Elizabeth Fuller, “Gorbachev's Dilemma in Azerbaijan,” Report on the USSR, Vol. 2, No. 5, 1990; Elizabeth Fuller, “What Lies behind the Current Armenian–Azerbaijani Tensions?” Report on the USSR, Vol. 3, No. 21, 1991; Elizabeth Fuller, “Nagorno-Karbakh: Internal Conflict Becomes International,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 11, 1992; Elizabeth Fuller, “Azerbaijan: Geidar Aliev's Political Comeback,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 5, 1993; Shireen Hunter, The Transcaucasus in Transition: Nation-Building and Conflict (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1994), pp. 65–88; Brenda Shaffer, “The Formation of Azerbaijani Collective Identity in Iran,” Nationalities Papers, Vol. 28, No. 3, 2000.Google Scholar

11. Croissant, Armenian–Azerbaijani Conflict, pp. 2647, 69–71, 107–125; Emil Danielyan, “A Crisis of Legitimacy in Armenia,” Transition, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1997, pp. 84–85; Emil Danielyan, “Back to Political Standstill,” in Peter Rutland, ed., Annual Survey of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 1997: The Challenge of Integration (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1998); Joseph R. Masih and Robert O. Krikorian, Armenia at the Crossroads (Amsterdam: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1999), pp. vii–xvi, 48–60, 86–91, 122–128.Google Scholar

12. Armenia Passes Point of No Return on Road to Reforms,” Financial Times, 14 May 2001, p. 8; “Armenian Leader Actively Seeks Lasting Peace with Azerbaijan,” International Herald Tribune, 1 September 2000, p. 2; Freedom House, Armenia/Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh (Washington: Freedom House, 2001), www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2001/countryratings/zznagorno.htm; Adrian Karatnycky, Alexander Motyl and Aili Piano, eds, Nations in Transit 1999–2000: Civil Society, Democracy and Markets in East Central Europe and the Newly Independent States (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 2001), pp. 69–87; Gerard J. Libaridian, The Challenge of Statehood: Armenian Political Thinking since Independence (Watertown, MA: Blue Crane Books, 1999), pp. 19–45, 69–96; Masih and Krikorian, Armenia at the Crossroads, pp. xiii–xvi, 23–24, 34–36, 40–42, 52–53.Google Scholar

13. Fuller, Elizabeth, “The Ongoing Political Power Struggle in Azerbaijan,RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 18, 1992; Elizabeth Fuller, “Azerbaijan after the Presidential Elections,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 26, 1992; Thomas Goltz, Azerbaijan Diary (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1998), pp. 46–73, 131–141, 186–200, 242–268, 355–366.Google Scholar

14. Azerbaijan: Aliev and Son,” The Economist, 6 March 1999, p. 51; Fuller, “Azerbaijan: Geidar Aliev's Political Comeback;” Elizabeth Fuller, “Between Neo-Stalinism and Democratization,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 18, 1996; Karatnycky et al., Nations in Transit 1999–2000, pp. 93–109.Google Scholar

15. See note 12.Google Scholar

16. Litvak, Kate, “The Role of Political Competition and Bargaining in Russian Foreign Policy,” Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol. 29, June 1996; Neil Malcolm and Alex Pravda, “Democratization and Russian Foreign Policy,” International Affairs, Vol. 72, July 1996; Michael McFaul, “A Precarious Peace: Domestic Politics in the Making of Russian Foreign Policy,” International Security, Vol. 22, No. 3, 1997–1998.Google Scholar

17. Fuller, Elizabeth, “The South Ossetian Campaign for Unification,” Report on the USSR, Vol. 1, No. 49, 1989; Elizabeth Fuller, “Abkhazia on the Brink of Civil War?” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 35, 1992; Stephen F. Jones, “Georgia: The Trauma of Statehood,” in Bremmer and Taras, New States, New Politics, pp. 506–511; Stanislav Lak'oba, “History: 1917–1989,” in George Hewitt, ed., The Abkhazians: A Handbook (London: Curzon, 1999); Ghia Nodia, “The Conflict in Abkhazia: National Projects and Political Circumstances,” in Bruno Coppetiers, Ghia Nodia and Yuri Anchabadze, eds, Georgians and Abkhazians: The Search for a Peace Settlement (Brussels: Vrije Universiteit, 1998), pubs.carnegie.ru/CRS/publi/Georgians/index.htm, pp. 3–14.Google Scholar

18. Fuller, , “The South Ossetian Campaign for Unification;” Fuller, Elizabeth, “Georgian President Flees after Opposition Seizes Power,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1992; Fuller, “Abkhazia on the Brink of Civil War?” Jones, “Georgia,” pp. 511–22; Ghia Nodia, “Dynamics of State-Building in Georgia,” Caucasus and the Caspian Transcripts (Cambridge, MA: BCSIA Publications, 1996), ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA, pp. 1–4; Nodia, “The Conflict in Abkhazia,” pp. 1–25; Darrell Slider, “Democratization in Georgia,” in Dawisha and Parrott, eds, Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus, pp. 156–198.Google Scholar

19. Abkhaz Take Sukhumi, Advance to Georgian Border,” Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, Vol. 45, No. 39, 1993, pp. 1720; Dodge Billingsley, “The Georgian Security Dilemma and Military Failure in Abkhazia,” Harriman Review, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1998; Julian Birch, “Ossetia: A Caucasian Bosnia in Microcosm,” Central Asian Survey, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1995; Ghia Nodia, “Political Turmoil in Georgia and the Ethnic Policies of Zviad Gamsakhurdia,” in Bruno Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus (Brussels: VUBPRESS, 1996), poli.vub.ac.be/publi/ContBorders/eng/info.htm; Nodia, “The Conflict in Abkhazia,” pp. 26–47; Alexei Zverev, “Ethnic Conflicts in the Caucasus, 1988–1994,” in Coppieters, ed., Contested Borders in the Caucasus, pp. 26–45.Google Scholar

20. Abkhazia: Russia's New ‘Black Hole’,” Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, Vol. 49, No. 27, 1997, pp. 1617; Birch, “Ossetia;” Freedom House, Georgia: Abkhazia (Washington: Freedom House, 2001), www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2001/countryratings/zzabkhazia.htm; “Georgian, Ossetian Chiefs Split,” Current Digest of the Post–Soviet Press, Vol. 44, No. 25, 1992, p. 5.Google Scholar

21. A Defiant Shevardnadze Says He'll Stay in Sukhimi ‘As Long as Necessary’,” Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press, Vol. 45, No. 27, 1993, p. 28; Fuller, “Georgian President Flees after Opposition Seizes Power;” Elizabeth Fuller, “Eduard Shevardnadze's Via Dolorosa,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 43, 1993; Karatnycky et al., Nations in Transit 1999–2000, pp. 277–98; Nodia, “Dynamics of State-Building in Georgia;” Slider, “Democratization in Georgia,” pp. 165–168.Google Scholar

22. See note 16.Google Scholar

23. Crowther, William, “Moldova: Caught between Nation and Empire,” in Bremmer and Taras, New States, New Politics, pp. 316319; William Crowther, “The Politics of Democratization in Postcommunist Moldova,” in Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrott, eds, Democratic Changes and Authoritarian Reactions in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 284–288; Charles King, Post-Soviet Moldova: A Borderland in Transition (Iasi, Romania: Center for Romanian Studies, 1997), pp. 16–30; Vladimir Socor, “Moldavian Lands between Romania and Ukraine,” Report on the USSR, Vol. 2, No. 46, 1990; Vladimir Socor, “Gagauz Autonomy in Moldova: A Precedent for Eastern Europe?” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 3, No. 33, 1994.Google Scholar

24. Crowther, , “The Politics of Democratization in Postcommunist Moldova,” pp. 288320; Vladimir Socor, “Moldavia Builds a New State,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1992; Vladimir Socor, “Creeping Putsch in Eastern Moldova,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1992; Vladimir Socor, “Russia's Fourteenth Army and the Insurgency in Eastern Moldova,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 36, 1992; Vladimir Socor, “Moldova's ‘Dniester’ Ulcer,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1993; Vladimir Socor, “Moldova: Another Major Setback for Pro-Romanian Forces,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 9, 1993; Socor, “Gagauz Autonomy in Moldova: A Precedent for Eastern Europe?”Google Scholar

25. Chin, Jeff and Roper, Steven D., “Territorial Autonomy in Gagauzia,” Nationalities Papers, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1998; Freedom House, Moldova: Transnistria (Washington: Freedom House, 2001), www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2001/countryratings/zztransdniester.htm; Pal Kolsto and Andrei Malgin, “The Transnistrian Republic: A Case of Politicized Regionalism,” Nationalities Papers, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1998.Google Scholar

26. Ionescu, Dan and Munteanu, Igor, “Likely Presidential Rivals Gear up for Elections,” Transition, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1996; Karatnycky et al., Nations in Transit 1999–2000, pp. 447–461; “New Communist Moldovan President Sets New Courses,” Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 4 April 2001 (Lexis-Nexis); Vladimir Socor, “Moldova: Democracy Advances, Independence at Risk,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1994.Google Scholar

27. In May 1992, Yeltsin explained that “this is not intervention by Russia, it is the defense of the people living there, on the personal initiative of the officers living there … if the people of the Dniester region want to live autonomously, that is the business of the people themselves” (Socor, Russia's Fourteenth Army and the Insurgency in Eastern Moldova, pp. 45–46). Needless to say, military commanders-in-chief do not commonly admit to deferring to the initiative of their officers. See also Kaufman, Stuart J. and Bowers, Stephen R., “Transnational Dimensions of the Transnistrian Conflict,” Nationalities Papers, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

28. Akbarzadeh, Shahram, “Why Did Nationalism Fail in Tajikistan?Europe–Asia Studies, Vol. 48, No. 7, 1996, pp. 11051108, 1116–1119; Muriel Atkin, “Thwarted Democratization in Tajikistan,” in Dawisha and Parrott, eds, Conflict, Cleavage, and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus, pp. 279–282; Aziz Niyazi, “Tajikistan,” in Mohiaddin Mesbahi, ed., Central Asia and the Caucasus after the Soviet Union: Domestic and International Dynamics (Gainesville: University of Florida Press, 1994), pp. 165–168, 171–172; Habibollah Abolhassan Shirazi, “Political Forces and Their Structures in Tajikistan,” Central Asian Survey, Vol. 16, No. 4, 1997, pp. 612–614; Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh, “The Bloody Path of Change: The Case of Post-Soviet Tajikistan,” Harriman Institute Forum, Vol. 6, No. 11, 1993, pp. 4–5.Google Scholar

29. Akbarzadeh, , “Why Did Nationalism Fail in Tajikistan?” pp. 11111117; Atkin, “Thwarted Democratization in Tajikistan,” pp. 293–303; Bess Brown, “Tajikistan: The Fall of Nabiev,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 1, No. 38, 1992; Bess Brown, “Tajikistan: The Conservatives Triumph,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 7, 1993; Allen Hetmanek, “Islamic Revolution and Jihad Come to the Former Soviet Central Asia: The Case of Tajikistan,” Central Asian Survey, Vol. 12, No. 3, 1993; Niyazi, “Tajikistan,” pp. 173–184; Tadjbaksh, “Bloody Path of Change,” pp. 2–7.Google Scholar

30. See note 28. Within the I.R.P., the radicals progressively gained influence once the civil war got underway.Google Scholar

31. Atkin, , “Thwarted Democratization in Tajikistan;” Brown, “Tajikistan: The Conservatives Triumph;” Karatnycky et al., Nations in Transit 1999–2000, pp. 617636.Google Scholar

32. Brown, Bess, “Central Asian States Seek Russian Help,” RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 2, No. 25, 1993; Horsman, Stuart, “Uzbekistan's Involvement in the Tajik Civil War, 1992–1997: Domestic Considerations,” Central Asian Survey, Vol. 18, No. 1, 1999; Bruce Pannier, “A Year of Violence in Tajikistan,” Transition, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1997; Bruce Pannier, “Exercising Peace,” in Peter Rutland, ed., Annual Survey of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 1997 (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1998); Bruce Pannier, “Peace Does Not Bring an End to the Fighting,” in Peter Rutland, ed., Annual Survey of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 1998 (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999); Ahmed Rashid, “Central Asia Summary: Recent Events in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan,” Eurasia Insight, 17 January 2001, www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav011701.shtml; R. Grant Smith, “Tajikistan: The Rocky Road to Peace,” Central Asian Survey, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1999, pp. 243–247.Google Scholar

33. See notes 16 and 32.Google Scholar

34. Where geopolitical interests are the motive for escalation, it seems more difficult to settle on a strong expectation about the differences between democratic and authoritarian regimes. For democracies, the usual argument is that, unless strong national security or national economic interests are at stake, intervention carrying a high risk of casualties is unlikely. For authoritarian regimes, it is not casualties but threats to the regime that are the most relevant deterrent, and leaders would be expected to care less about threats to national security and national economic interests. In general, it is hard to say which type of calculation is more likely to favor escalating intervention.Google Scholar