Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-16T21:38:58.770Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

THE WORLD ECONOMY: Global outlook overview

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 November 2020

Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Research Article
Copyright
© National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020

Footnotes

*

All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Iana Liadze (i.liadze@niesr.ac.uk). We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha, Dawn Holland and Hande Küçük for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and compiling the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 23 October 2020. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 16 October 2020. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline.

References

REFERENCES

Baldwin, R. (2020), ‘The supply side matters: Guns versus butter, COVID-style’, VoxEU Column, 22 March.Google Scholar
Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (eds) (2020), ‘Economics in the time of COVID-19’, Centre for Economic Policy Research e-book, 6 March.Google Scholar
Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (eds) (2020), ‘Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: act fast and do whatever it takes’, Centre for Economic Policy Research e-book, 18 March.Google Scholar
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) (2020), ‘Annual Economic Report 2020’, 30 June.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O. (2020), ‘Designing the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic’, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 8 AprilGoogle Scholar
Caldara, D., Prestipino, A., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P. and Raffo, A. (2019), ‘The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty’, International Finance Discussion Papers Number 1256, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Google Scholar
Chadha, J. (2020), ‘The Commentary: a country withered’, National Institute Economic Review, 254, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dell’Ariccia, G., Mauro, P., Spilimbergo, A. and Zettelmeyer, J. (2020), ‘Economic policies for the COVID-19 war’, IMF Blog, 1 April.Google Scholar
Dingel., J. and Neiman, B. (2020), ‘How many jobs can be done at home?’, Covid Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Issue 1, 3 April 2020, pp 16-24.Google Scholar
Dixon, H. (2020a), ‘Measuring inflation in the pandemic’, NIESR blog, 17 June.Google Scholar
Dixon, H. (2020b), ‘The lockdown weighted inflation CPILW for September 2020’, NIESR blog, 26 October.Google Scholar
Djankov, and Panizza, U. (eds) (2020), ‘Covid-19 in developing economies’, Centre for Economic Policy Research e-book, 22 June.Google Scholar
Dullien, S., Stephan, S. and Theobald, T. (2020), ‘European fiscal rules as a liability in the transatlantic trade trade conflict: lessons from NiGEM simulations’, National Institute Economic Review, 254, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Liadze, I. (2018), ‘The war on trade: beggar thy neighbour – beggar thyself?’, National Institute Economic Review, 244, May, F46-47.Google Scholar
Hofmann, B., Shim, I and Shin, H.S. (2020), ‘Emerging market economy exchange rates and local currency bond markets amid the Covid-19 pandemic’, BIS Bulletin, No. 5, 7 April.Google Scholar
Holland, D. and Liadze, I. (2020), ‘Quantifying the global macroeconomic spillovers of illness and lockdown measures’, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May, F61-62.Google Scholar
Hurst, I., Liadze, I., Naisbitt, B. and Young, G. (2020), ‘Updating the preliminary assessment of the possible economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, NiGEM Observations, No. 18, 27 March.Google Scholar
Kara, A., Liadze, I. and Paczos, M. (2019), ‘The impact of a tariff on automobiles’, National Institute Economic Review, 249, August, pp F52-54.Google Scholar
Kara, A. and Macchiarelli, C. (2020), ‘The macroeconomics of de-globalisation’, National Institute Economic Review, 253, August, F524.Google Scholar
Kara, A., Macchiarelli, C. and Giacon, R. (2020), ‘Once the dust settles, supporting emerging economies will be the challenge,’ LSE COVID-19 blog, May.Google Scholar
Kohlscheen, E., Mojon, B. and Rees, D. (2020), ‘The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy’, BIS Bulletin, No. 4, 6 April.Google Scholar
Küçük, H. (2020), ‘Effects of Covid-19 in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 253, August, F5963.Google Scholar
Lanau, S. and Fortun, J. (2020), ‘The COVID-19 Shock to EM FlowsInstitute of International Finance, Economic Views, 17 March.Google Scholar
Lenoël, C. and Macchiarelli, C. (2020), ‘ Is it all quiet on the inflation front?’, NIESR blog, 10 September.Google Scholar
Lenoël, C., Macchiarelli, C. and Naisbitt, B. (2020), ‘Are the Euro Area and the US en route to Japanisation?’, National Institute Economic Review, 251, February, F52-57.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. (2018a), ‘Trade wars – any winners?’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August, F47.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. (2018b), ‘Trade wars – the saga continues’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F38-39.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017a), ‘The macroeconomic implications of increasing tariffs on US imports’, NiGEM Observations, No 12.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017b), ‘US monetary policy and its impact on emerging market economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 240, May, F62-3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B (2018), ‘Global spillover effects of US monetary tightening’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F42-3.Google Scholar
Mao, X., Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2019), ‘Recent inflation trends in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, November, 250, F50-51.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018), ‘The risks of rising global indebtedness’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2020), ‘Vulnerability from debt in the coronavirus crisis’, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2020), ‘The effects of the trade war on inflation’, National Institute Economic Review, February, 251, F38-39.Google Scholar
Stiglitz, J.E., Shiller, R.J., Gopinath., G., Reinhart, C.M., Posen, A., Prasad, E., Tooze, A., Tyson, L.D. and Mahbubani, K. (2020), ‘How the Economy Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic’, Foreign Policy, 15 April.Google Scholar
Triggs, A. (2018), ‘The economic and political benefits of coordinated fiscal stimulus’, Brookings Institution, Global Economy and Development Working Paper no.121, November.Google Scholar
Verikios, G.,Hurst, I. and Young, G. (2020), ‘Assessing long-run growth prospects for the UK’s regions’, National Institute Economic Review, 254, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar