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PATTERNS OF UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN GERMANY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 October 2017

Daniela Rahn  and
Enzo Weber
Daniela Rahn*
Affiliation:
Deutsche Bundesbank*
Enzo Weber
Affiliation:
IAB and University of Regensburg
*
Address correspondence to: Daniela Rahn, Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: daniela.rahn@bundesbank.de.
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Abstract

Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper provides deeper insight into unemployment dynamics in Germany. We identify a technology shock and two policy shocks that play a central role in business cycle research. Accordingly, we enrich the discussion on the sources of unemployment dynamics by considering demand-side impulses. The worker reallocation process varies substantially with the identified shocks. The job-finding rate plays a larger role after a technology shock and a monetary policy shock, whereas the separation rate appears to be the dominant margin after a fiscal policy shock. Technology shocks turn out to be relatively important for variations in the transition rates. Regarding policy shocks, our results point toward fiscal interventions as a promising instrument but with several limitations.

Keywords

Unemployment DynamicsTransition RatesSVARPolicy Shocks
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 23 , Issue 1 , January 2019 , pp. 322 - 357
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

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Footnotes

*

The views expressed in this article represent the author's personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or its staff.

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