Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-wq2xx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T00:30:36.776Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting the Basis for Corn in Western New York

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2017

Patricia D. Taylor  and
William G. Tomek
Patricia D. Taylor
Affiliation:
Continental Grain Company
William G. Tomek
Affiliation:
Cornell University
Get access

Abstract

This study develops a simple model to forecast the basis for corn in a specific region. Improved forecasts can improve hedging decisions. Basis behavior, however, depends on explanatory variables that are themselves difficult to forecast with precision. This limits the usefulness of the basis model, but it does offer some benefit over naive forecasts.

Type
Articles
Information
Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , April 1984 , pp. 97 - 102
Copyright
Copyright © Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This article is based on Taylor's M.S. thesis. We gratefully acknowledge the suggestions of K. L. Robinson, D. G. Sisler, and L. W. Tauer.

References

Belsey, David A., et al. Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1980.Google Scholar
Feldstein, Martin S. “The Error of Forecast in Econometric Models when the Forecast-Period Exogenous Variables are Stochastic.” Econometrica 39(1971): 55–60.Google Scholar
Garcia, Philip, and Good, Darrel L. “An Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Illinous Corn Basis, 1971–81,” In Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Risk Management. Des Moines, Iowa: Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference, 1983.Google Scholar
Kahl, Kandice H. “Changes in the Chicago Corn Basis, 1960–1975.” Agricultural Economics Research 34(1982): 25–29.Google Scholar
Martin, Larry et al. “Factors Affecting Corn Basis in Western Ontario.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1980): 107–112.Google Scholar
Paul, Allen B. Treatment of Hedging in Commodity Market Regulation. USDA Technical Bulletin 1538, April 1976.Google Scholar
Querin, S. F., and Tomek, W. G. Hedging Strategies Utilizing Technical Analysis: An Application to Corn in Western New York. Cornell Univ. Agricultural Economics Research 83–12. February 1983.Google Scholar
Taylor, Patricia D. “The Western New York Basis for Corn at Harvest, 1972–1982,” M.S. thesis, Cornell University, August 1983.Google Scholar
Wallace, T. Dudley. “Pretest Estimation in Regression: A Survey.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 59(1977): 431–443.Google Scholar