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A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2019

Fernando Calle-Alonso Open the ORCID record for Fernando Calle-Alonso [Opens in a new window] ,
Carlos J. Pérez  and
Eduardo S. Ayra
Fernando Calle-Alonso*
Affiliation:
(Universidad de Málaga, Spain)
Carlos J. Pérez
Affiliation:
(Universidad de Extremadura, Spain)
Eduardo S. Ayra
Affiliation:
(Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain)
*
(E-mail: fernandocalle@uma.es)
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Abstract

Aircraft accidents are extremely rare in the aviation sector. However, their consequences can be very dramatic. One of the most important problems is runway excursions, when an aircraft exceeds the end (overrun) or the side (veer-off) of the runway. After performing exploratory analysis and hypothesis tests, a Bayesian-network-based approach was considered to provide information from risk scenarios involving landing procedures. The method was applied to a real database containing key variables related to landing operations on three runways. The objective was to analyse the effects over runway overrun excursions of failing to fulfil expert recommendations upon landing. For this purpose, the most influential variables were analysed statistically, and several scenarios were built, leading to a runway ranking based on the risk assessed.

Keywords

AviationSafetyBayesian estimationRisk MinimisationRunway excursion
Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 72 , Issue 5 , September 2019 , pp. 1121 - 1139
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 2019 

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