Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-jr42d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-19T15:54:23.266Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Dividend Increases and Initiations and Default Risk in Equity Returns

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 May 2011

Andreas Charitou
Affiliation:
Department of Public and Business Administration, University of Cyprus, PO Box 20537, Nicosia, CY 1678, Cyprus, charitou@ucy.ac.cy
Neophytos Lambertides
Affiliation:
Business School, Aston University, Aston Triangle, Birmingham, B47ET, United Kingdom. n.lambertides@aston.ac.uk
Giorgos Theodoulou
Affiliation:
Department of Public and Business Administration, University of Cyprus, PO Box 20537, Nicosia, CY 1678, Cyprus, bapgtg2@ucy.ac.cy

Abstract

This study extends the Grullon, Michaely, and Swaminathan (2002) analysis by incorporating default risk. Using data for firms that either increased or initiated cash dividend payments during the 23-year period 1986–2008, we find reduction in default risk. This reduction is shown to be a priced risk factor beyond the Fama and French (1993) risk measures, and it explains the dividend payment decision and the positive market reaction around dividend increases and initiations. Further analysis reveals that the reduction in default risk is a significant factor in explaining the 3-year excess returns following dividend increases and initiations.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allen, F., and Michaely, R.. “Payout Policy.” In Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Constantinides, G., Harris, M., and Stulz, R., eds. Amsterdam: North-Holland (2003).Google Scholar
Altman, E. I. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.” Journal of Finance, 23 (1968), 589609.Google Scholar
Benartzi, S.; Michaely, R.; and Thaler, R.. “Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?Journal of Finance, 52 (1997), 10071034.Google Scholar
Bharath, S. T., and Shumway, T.. “Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model.” Review of Financial Studies, 21 (2008), 13391369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boudoukh, J.; Michaely, R.; Richardson, M.; and Roberts, M. R.. “On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing.” Journal of Finance, 62 (2007), 877915.Google Scholar
Brav, A.; Graham, J. R.; Harvey, C. R.; and Michaely, R.. “Payout Policy in the 21st Century.” Journal of Financial Economics, 77 (2005), 483527.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y.; Hilscher, J.; and Szilagyi, J.. “In Search of Distress Risk.” Journal of Finance, 63 (2008), 28992939.Google Scholar
Chava, S., and Purnanandam, A.. “Is Default Risk Negatively Related to Stock Returns?Review of Financial Studies, 23 (2010), 25232559.Google Scholar
Chen, S.; Shevlin, T.; and Tong, Y. H.. “Does the Pricing of Financial Reporting Quality Change around Dividend Changes?Journal of Accounting Research, 45 (2007), 140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeAngelo, H.; DeAngelo, L.; and Skinner, D. J.. “Dividends and Losses.” Journal of Finance, 47 (1992), 18371863.Google Scholar
DeAngelo, H.; DeAngelo, L.; and Skinner, D. J.. “Accounting Choice in Troubled Companies.” Journal of Accounting and Economics, 17 (1994), 113143.Google Scholar
DeAngelo, H.; DeAngelo, L.; and Stulz, R. M.. “Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the Life-Cycle Theory.” Journal of Financial Economics, 81 (2006), 227254.Google Scholar
Elton, E. J.; Gruber, M. J.; Agrawal, D.; and Mann, C.. “Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Finance, 56 (2001), 247277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stock and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1993), 356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies.” Journal of Finance, 51 (1996), 5584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?Journal of Financial Economics, 60 (2001), 343.Google Scholar
Franzen, L. A.; Rodgers, K. J.; and Simin, T. T.. “Measuring Distress Risk: The Effect of R&D Intensity.” Journal of Finance, 62 (2007), 29312967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garlappi, L.; Shu, T.; and Yan, H.. “Default Risk, Shareholder Advantage, and Stock Returns.” Review of Financial Studies, 21 (2008), 27432778.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grullon, G., and Michaely, R.. “Dividends, Share Repurchases and the Substitution Hypothesis.” Journal of Finance, 57 (2002), 16491984.Google Scholar
Grullon, G.; Michaely, R.; and Swaminathan, B.. “Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?Journal of Business, 75 (2002), 387424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guay, W., and Harford, J.. “The Cash-Flow Permanence and Information Content of Dividend Increases versus Repurchases.” Journal of Financial Economics, 57 (2000), 385415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hotchkiss, E. S., and Ronen, T.. “The Informational Efficiency of the Corporate Bond Market: An Intraday Analysis.” Review of Financial Studies, 15 (2002), 13251354.Google Scholar
Jagannathan, M.; Stephens, C. P.; and Weisbach, M. S.. “Financial Flexibility and the Choice between Dividend and Stock Repurchases.” Journal of Financial Economics, 57 (2000), 355384.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Julio, B., and Ikenberry, D. L.. “Reappearing Dividends.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 16 (2004), 89100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koch, A. S., and Sun, A. X.. “Dividend Changes and the Persistence of Past Earnings Changes.” Journal of Finance, 59 (2004), 20932116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, W., and Lie, E.. “Dividend Changes and Catering Incentives.” Journal of Financial Economics, 80 (2006), 293308.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lintner, J. V. “Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings, and Taxes.” American Economic Review, 46 (1956), 97113.Google Scholar
Merton, R. C. “On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates.” Journal of Finance, 29 (1974), 449470.Google Scholar
Michaely, R.; Thaler, R. H.; and Womack, K. L.. “Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?Journal of Finance, 50 (1995), 573608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, M. H., and Modigliani, F.. “Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares.” Journal of Business, 34 (1961), 411433.Google Scholar
Nissim, D. “The Information Content of Dividend Decreases: Earnings or Risk News?” Working Paper, Columbia University (2004).Google Scholar
Officer, M. “Dividend Initiations, Corporate Governance and Agency Costs.” Working Paper, University of Southern California (2007).Google Scholar
Ohlson, J. A. “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy.” Journal of Accounting Research, 18 (1980), 109131.Google Scholar
Rosenbaum, P. R., and Rubin, D. B.. “The Central Role of the Propensity Score in Observational Studies for Causal Effects.” Biometrika, 70 (1983), 4155.Google Scholar
Skinner, D. J., and Soltes, E.. “What Do Dividends Tell Us About Earnings Quality?Review of Accounting Studies, 16 (2011), 128.Google Scholar
Vassalou, M., and Xing, Y.. “Default Risk in Equity Returns.” Journal of Finance, 59 (2004), 831868.Google Scholar