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Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 August 2022

Lisa A. Robinson Open the ORCID record for Lisa A. Robinson [Opens in a new window] ,
Michael R. Eber  and
James K. Hammitt
Lisa A. Robinson*
Affiliation:
Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
Michael R. Eber
Affiliation:
Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA Harvard Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
James K. Hammitt
Affiliation:
Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA Toulouse School of Economics, Université de Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France
*
*Corresponding author: e-mail: robinson@hsph.harvard.edu
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Abstract

Many economic analyses, including those that address the COVID-19 pandemic, focus on the value of averting deaths and do not include the value of averting nonfatal illnesses. Yet, incorporating the value of averting nonfatal cases may change conclusions about the desirability of the policy. While per case values may be small, the number of nonfatal cases is often large, far outstripping the number of fatal cases. The value of averting nonfatal cases is also increasingly important in evaluating COVID-19 policy options as vaccine- and infection-related immunity and treatments reduce the case-fatality rate. Unfortunately, little valuation research is available that explicitly addresses COVID-19 morbidity. We describe and implement an approach for approximating the value of averting nonfatal illnesses or injuries and apply it to COVID-19 in the USA. We estimate gains from averting COVID-19 morbidity of about 0.01 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) per mild case averted, 0.02 QALY per severe case, and 3.15 QALYs per critical case. These gains translate into monetary values of about $5300 per mild case, $11,000 per severe case, and $1.8 million per critical case. While these estimates are imprecise, they suggest the magnitude of the effects.

Keywords

COVID-19quality-adjusted life yearsvalue per statistical lifevaluing morbidity risk reductionswillingness to pay

JEL classification

I18: Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health H43: Project Evaluation • Social Discount Rate D04: Microeconomic Policy: Formulation, Implementation, and Evaluation K32: Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law D61: Allocative Efficiency • Cost–Benefit Analysis
Type
Article
Information
Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis , Volume 13 , Issue 2 , Summer 2022 , pp. 247 - 268
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

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