Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-94fs2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-17T21:30:39.421Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2019

G. Sujetovienė ,
R. Velička ,
A. Kanapickas ,
Z. Kriaučiūnienė ,
D. Romanovskaja ,
E. Bakšienė ,
I. Vagusevičienė ,
M. Klepeckas  and
R. Juknys
G. Sujetovienė*
Affiliation:
Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania
R. Velička
Affiliation:
Experimental Station, Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Noreikiškės, Lithuania
A. Kanapickas
Affiliation:
Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania
Z. Kriaučiūnienė
Affiliation:
Experimental Station, Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Noreikiškės, Lithuania
D. Romanovskaja
Affiliation:
Vokė Branch, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Lithuania
E. Bakšienė
Affiliation:
Vokė Branch, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Lithuania
I. Vagusevičienė
Affiliation:
Experimental Station, Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Noreikiškės, Lithuania
M. Klepeckas
Affiliation:
Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania
R. Juknys
Affiliation:
Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania
*
Author for correspondence: G. Sujetovienė, E-mail: gintare.sujetoviene@vdu.lt
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Though the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.

Keywords

Climate changephenologyspring barleythermal time
Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 156 , Issue 9 , November 2018 , pp. 1061 - 1069
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alzueta, I, Arisnabarreta, S, Abeledo, LG and Miralles, DJ (2014) A simple model to predict phenology in malting barley based on cultivar thermo-photoperiodic response. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 107, 8–19.Google Scholar
Anwar, MR, Liu, DL, Macadam, I and Kelly, G (2013) Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 113, 225–245.Google Scholar
Anwar, MR, Liu, DL, Farquharson, R, Macadam, I, Abadi, A, Finlayson, J, Wang, B and Ramilan, T (2015) Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia. Agricultural Systems 132, 133–144.Google Scholar
Barnabas, B, Jäger, K and Feher, A (2008) The effect of drought and heat stress on reproductive processes in cereals. Plant, Cell & Environment 31, 11–38.Google Scholar
Blecharczyk, A, Sawinska, Z, Małecka, I, Sparks, TH and Tryjanowski, P (2016) The phenology of winter rye in Poland: an analysis of long-term experimental data. International Journal of Biometeorology 60, 1341–1346.Google Scholar
Cannell, MGR and Smith, RI (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. Journal of Applied Ecology 20, 951–963.Google Scholar
Cao, W and Moss, DN (1989) Temperature effect on leaf emergence and phyllochron in wheat and barley. Crop Science 29, 1018–1021.Google Scholar
Chmielewski, FM and Rötzer, T (2001) Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 108, 101–112.Google Scholar
Chmielewski, FM, Müller, A and Bruns, E (2004) Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 121, 69–78.Google Scholar
Chowdhury, SI and Wardlaw, IF (1978) The effect of temperature on kernel development in cereals. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 29, 205–223.Google Scholar
Chuine, I (2000) A unified model for budburst of trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology 207, 337–347.Google Scholar
Dawson, IK, Russell, J, Powell, W, Steffenson, B, Thomas, WTB and Waugh, R (2015) Barley: a translational model for adaptation to climate change. New Phytologist 206, 913–931.Google Scholar
Dofine, SM (1992) Growth, phenology, and yield components of barley and wheat grown in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Plant Science 72, 1227–1230.Google Scholar
Estrella, N, Sparks, TH and Menzel, A (2007) Trends and temperature response in the phenology of crops in Germany. Global Change Biology 13, 1737–1747.Google Scholar
García-Mozo, H, Mestre, A and Galán, A (2010) Phenological trends in southern Spain: a response to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 150, 575–580.Google Scholar
Hakim, MA, Hossain, A, Teixeira Da Silva, JA, Zvolinsky, VP and Khan, MM (2012) Yield, protein and starch content of twenty wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genotypes exposed to high temperature under late sowing conditions. Journal of Scientific Research 4, 477–489.Google Scholar
Harrison, PA and Butterfield, RE (1996) Effects of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity. Climate Research 7, 225–241.Google Scholar
Hatfield, JL and Prueger, JH (2015) Temperature extremes: effect on plant growth and development. Weather and Climate Extremes 10, 4–10.Google Scholar
Hatfield, JL, Boote, KJ, Kimball, BA, Ziska, LH, Izaurralde, RC, Ort, D, Thomson, AM and Wolfe, D (2011) Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agronomy Journal 103, 351–370.Google Scholar
He, L, Asseng, S, Zhao, G, Wu, D, Yang, X, Zhuang, W, Jin, N and Yu, Q (2015) Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200, 135–143.Google Scholar
Hibbard, KA, Van Vurren, DP and Edmonds, J (2011) A primer on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the coordination between the climate and integrated assessment modelling communities. CLIVAR Exchanges 16, 12–15.Google Scholar
Högy, P, Poll, C, Marhan, S, Kandeler, E and Fangmeier, A (2013) Impacts of temperature increase and change in precipitation pattern on crop yield and yield quality of barley. Food Chemistry 136, 1470–1477.Google Scholar
Hossain, A, Teixeira da Silva, JA, Lozovskaya, MV and Zvolinsky, VP (2012) High temperature combined with drought affect rainfed spring wheat and barley in South-Eastern Russia: I. Phenology and growth. Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences 19, 473–487.Google Scholar
Juknys, R, Kanapickas, A, Šveikauskaitė, I and Sujetovienė, G (2016) Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in central Lithuania. International Journal of Biometeorology 60, 1589–1602.Google Scholar
Juknys, R, Velička, R, Kanapickas, A, Kriaučiūnienė, Z, Masilionytė, L, Vagusevičienė, I, Pupalienė, R, Klepeckas, M and Sujetovienė, G (2017) Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania. International Journal of Biometeorology 61, 1765–1775.Google Scholar
Kalvāns, A, Bitāne, M and Kalvāne, G (2015) Forecasting plant phenology: evaluating the phenological models for Betula pendula and Padus racemosa spring phases, Latvia. International Journal of Biometeorology 59, 165–179.Google Scholar
Li, K, Yang, X, Tian, H, Pan, S, Liu, Z and Lu, S (2016) Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain. International Journal of Biometeorology 60, 21–32.Google Scholar
Linvill, DE (1990) Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations. HortScience 25, 14–16.Google Scholar
Liu, Y, Wang, E, Yang, X and Wang, J (2010) Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biology 16, 2287–2299.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB and Field, CB (2007) Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters 2, 014002.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB and Gourdji, SM (2012) The influence of climate change on global crop productivity. Plant Physiology 160, 1686–1697.Google Scholar
Luo, Q (2011) Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review. Climatic Change 109, 583–598.Google Scholar
Ma, S, Churkina, G and Trusilova, K (2012) Investigating the impact of climate change on crop phenological events in Europe with a phenology model. International Journal of Biometeorology 56, 749–763.Google Scholar
Matzneller, P, Blümel, K and Chmielewski, FM (2014) Models for the beginning of sour cherry blossom. International Journal of Biometeorology 58, 703–715.Google Scholar
McMaster, GS and Wilhelm, WW (1997) Growing degree-days: one equation, two interpretations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 87, 291–300.Google Scholar
Meier, U (2001) Growth Stages of Mono-and Dicotyledonous Plants. BBCH Monograph. Bonn, Germany: Federal Biological Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry.Google Scholar
Miglietta, F, Tanasescu, M and Marica, A (1995) The expected effects of climate change on wheat development. Global Change Biology 1, 407–415.Google Scholar
Moreno, LSB, Pedreira, CGS, Boote, KJ and Alves, RR (2014) Base temperature determination of tropical Panicum spp. grasses and its effects on degree-day-based models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 186, 26–33.Google Scholar
Olesen, JE and Bindi, M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy 16, 239–262.Google Scholar
Olesen, JE, Børgesen, CD, Elsgaard, L, Palosuo, T, Rötter, RP, Skjelvåg, AO, Peltonen-Sainio, P, Börjesson, T, Trnka, M, Ewert, F, Siebert, S, Brisson, N, Eitzinger, J, van Asselt, ED, Oberforster, M and van der Fels-Klerx, HJ (2012) Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Additives & Contaminants Part A: Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure & Risk Assessment 29, 1527–1542.Google Scholar
Oteros, J, García-Mozo, H, Botey, R, Mestre, A and Galán, C (2015) Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012). Climatic Change 130, 545–558.Google Scholar
Patil, RH, Laegdsmand, M, Olesen, JE and Porter, JR (2010) Growth and yield response of winter wheat to soil warming and rainfall patterns. Journal of Agricultural Science 148, 553–566.Google Scholar
Peltonen-Sainio, P, Jauhiainen, L and Hakala, K (2011) Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long-term multi-location trials at high-latitude conditions. Journal of Agricultural Science 149, 49–62.Google Scholar
Porter, JR and Gawith, M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. European Journal of Agronomy 10, 23–36.Google Scholar
Porter, JR and Semenov, MA (2005) Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360, 2021–2035.Google Scholar
Porter, JR, Xie, L, Challinor, AJ, Cochrane, K, Howden, SM, Iqbal, MM, Lobell, DB and Travasso, MI (2014), Food security and food production systems. In Field, CB, Barros, VR, Dokken, DJ, Mach, KJ, Mastrandrea, MD, Bilir, TE, Chatterjee, M, Ebi, KL, Estrada, YO, Genova, RC, Girma, B, Kissel, ES, Levy, AN, MacCracken, S, Mastrandrea, PR and White, LL (eds), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 485–533.Google Scholar
Romanovskaja, D and Bakšienė, E (2007) Influence of the thermal mode on seasonal phenological phenomena in Lithuania. Ekologija 53, 15–20.Google Scholar
Romanovskaja, D and Bakšienė, E (2009) Influence of climate warming on beginning of flowering of apple tree (Malus domestica Borkh.) in Lithuania. Agronomy Research 7, 87–96.Google Scholar
Rötter, RP, Palosuo, T, Pirttioja, NK, Dubrovsky, M, Salo, T, Fronzek, S, Aikasalo, R, Trnka, M, Ristolainen, A and Carter, TR (2011) What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 °C? A model-based assessment. European Journal of Agronomy 35, 205–214.Google Scholar
Rötter, RP, Palosuo, T, Kersebaum, KC, Angulo, C, Bindi, M, Ewert, F, Ferrise, R, Hlavinka, P, Moriondo, M, Nendel, C, Olesen, JE, Patil, RH, Ruget, F, Takáč, J and Trnka, M (2012) Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: a comparison of nine crop models. Field Crops Research 133, 23–36.Google Scholar
Siebert, S and Ewert, F (2012) Spatio-temporal patterns of phenological development in Germany in relation to temperature and day length. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 152, 44–57.Google Scholar
Sommer, R, Glazirina, M, Yuldashev, T, Otarov, A, Ibraeva, M, Martynova, L, Bekenov, M, Kholov, B, Ibragimov, N, Kobilov, R, Karaev, S, Sultonov, M, Khasanova, F, Esanbekov, M, Mavlyanov, D, Isaev, S, Abdurahimov, S, Ikramov, R, Shezdyukova, L and de Pauw, E (2013) Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 178, 78–99.Google Scholar
Středová, H, Stehnová, E and Škvareninová, J (2017) Long-term changes of vegetation season in context of spring barley phenology in South Moravia. Kvasny Prumysl 63, 11–15.Google Scholar
Tamaki, M, Kondo, S, Itani, T and Goto, Y (2002) Temperature responses of leaf emergence and leaf growth in barley. Journal of Agricultural Science 138, 17–20.Google Scholar
Tao, F, Yokozawa, M, Xu, Y, Hayashi, Y and Zhang, Z (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 138, 82–92.Google Scholar
Tao, F, Zhang, S and Zhang, Z (2012) Spatiotemporal changes of wheat phenology in China under the effects of temperature, day length and cultivar thermal characteristics. European Journal of Agronomy 43, 201–212.Google Scholar
Teutschbein, C and Seibert, J (2012) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: review and evaluation of different methods. Journal of Hydrology 456–457, 12–29.Google Scholar
Trnka, M, Dubrovsky, M and Zalud, Z (2004) Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in spring barley production in the Czech Republic. Climatic Change 64, 227–255.Google Scholar
van Bussel, L, Stehfest, E, Siebert, S, Müller, C and Ewert, F (2015) Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography 24, 1018–1029.Google Scholar
Vitasse, Y, François, C, Delpierre, N, Dufrêne, E, Kremer, A, Chuine, I and Delzon, S (2011) Assessing the effects of climate change on the phenology of European temperate trees. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 969–980.Google Scholar
Wang, HL, Gan, YT, Wang, RY, Niu, JY, Zhao, H, Yang, QG and Li, GC (2008) Phenological trends in winter wheat and spring cotton in response to climate changes in northwest China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148, 1242–1251.Google Scholar
Wheeler, TR, Craufurd, PQ, Ellis, RH, Porter, JR and Prasad, PVV (2000) Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82, 159–167.Google Scholar
Wielgolaski, FE (2003) Climatic factors governing plant phenological phases along a Norwegian fjord. International Journal of Biometeorology 47, 213–220.Google Scholar
Williams, GDV (1974) Deriving a biophotothermal time scale for barley. International Journal of Biometeorology 18, 57–69.Google Scholar
Williams, TA and Abberton, MT (2004) Earlier flowering between 1962 and 2002 in agricultural varieties of white clover. Oecologia 138, 122–126.Google Scholar
Xia, Y, Winterhalter, M and Fabian, P (1999) A model to interpolate monthly mean climatological data at Bavarian forest climate stations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 64, 27–38.Google Scholar
Xiao, DP and Tao, FL (2014) Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades. European Journal of Agronomy 52, 112–122.Google Scholar
Xiao, D, Tao, F, Liu, Y, Shi, W, Wang, M, Liu, F, Zhang, S and Zhu, Z (2013) Observed changes in winter wheat phenology in the North China Plain for 1981–2009. International Journal of Biometeorology 57, 275–285.Google Scholar
Zhang, H, Tao, F, Xiao, D, Shi, W, Liu, F, Zhang, S, Liu, Y, Wang, M and Bai, H (2016) Contributions of climate, varieties, and agronomic management to rice yield change in the past three decades in China. Frontiers of Earth Science 10, 315–327.Google Scholar