Understanding the impacts of the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement on southern commodities serves as a starting point to assess the potential impacts of the next global trade negotiations in terms of hope (expanding export markets) and fear (new competition). Key issues examined include whether or not the UR Agreement resulted in new markets or new competition for key southern commodities—cotton, poultry, tobacco, and rice. For new markets, export data were analyzed to determine if exports increased since the passage of the UR Agreement in 1994. Also, countries that are leading world importers of these southern commodities were identified and data analyzed to determine whether the U.S. is exporting to these top markets. Alternatively, to assess whether the UR Agreement resulted in new competition for southern commodities, countries that are leading world exporters were identified and data analyzed to determine whether the U.S. is among them. Data analyses was supplemented with interviews of southern commodities experts who assess impacts of the GATT-UR and identify issues for the next round of global trade negotiations.

This paper employed a variety of sources of data and a number of methods to describe rural lending markets. Over the sample period, 1992 through 1998, there was a pronounced trend towards affiliation of banks, both urban and rural, with holding companies, although over this period there was little change in the concentration of banking offices in rural areas. Using data from the 1993 National Survey of Small Business Finances, the study found some evidence that rural small businesses were less likely to apply for a loan than urban small firms although those rural firms that did apply were more likely to have their application accepted.

In an era of rapid consolidation in banking, the effect of mergers on the availability of credit to agricultural businesses is unclear. Commercial bank mergers have profoundly altered the urban credit marketplace and are positioned to do the same for the agricultural credit marketplace. Adjustment models are estimated with data on independent bank consolidations from 1988 through 1995. The regression results bode well for agricultural lending if acquiring banks have larger concentrations of assets in agriculture than acquired banks. Conversely, if acquiring banks have smaller concentrations than acquired banks, acquisitions have a negative impact on agricultural lending. Since most acquiring banks have smaller agricultural loan concentrations than acquired banks, there is concern for agricultural lending. However, other lenders are likely to fill credit gaps that develop.

An analysis of the characteristics of farm businesses by size of FCS direct lending association suggests that further consolidation of FCS lending should have limited negative impacts on credit availability. Commercial-sized farm businesses with FCS real estate debt appeared similar to those who obtained credit from competing lenders, but smaller associations and those with fewer stockholders per branch appeared to serve larger and more wealthy commercial-sized farms.

Production risk includes yield and days suitable for fieldwork variability. Both were modeled using biophysical simulation and a mean-variance, chance-constrained mathematical programming formulation representing a Kentucky corn, soybean, and wheat producer. While crop diversification, planting date, and maturity group can be used to reduce the types of risk considered, interaction between the two influences how production practices are used to manage risk. For the conditions studied, plant population alterations were less effective for risk reduction of either component. The study provides evidence of the importance of the consideration of both elements of production risk in whole farm planning.

Regional and farm-level analyses are conducted to evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies. The regional analysis evaluates reducing nitrate losses by reducing per-acre nitrogen use, taxing nitrogen use, taxing irrigation water use, and reducing furrow irrigation. Incentives to convert furrow systems to sprinkler and LEPA systems outperform the other policies. The firm-level analysis derives farm plans that limit the expected values of environmental indices for nitrates and pesticides, and reduce the probability that specified targets will be exceeded. The analysis demonstrates the importance of evaluating environmental risk as a stochastic process.

Initial ideas on risk management uses of precision agricultural technology focused on site-specific treatment of problem areas to reduce the probability of low yields and returns. Recent discussions deal with sensor and remote-sensing information to improve marketing and “as applied maps” as trace-back mechanisms to manage liability. A theoretical model is presented that suggests that there are plausible circumstances under which precision farming can reduce temporal yield variability. Empirical evidence from an on-farm trial of site-specific P&K management in the Eastern Cornbelt supports the hypothesis that precision farming can have risk-reducing benefits.

The farm level economic implications of the political turmoil surrounding tobacco are examined. Tobacco ranks first in crop receipts in the Southeastern United States. Free market advocates typically want to eliminate the tobacco program because of its cartellike nature. Health advocates want to maintain the program because it limits tobacco production. Cigarette manufacturers tolerate the program because of the political support they receive from program stakeholders. The effects of cigarette price increases with and without a program are examined. Whether or not the program is maintained in the face of declining tobacco demand has significant implications for Southern agriculture.

This paper discusses the context within which educational programs tailored to tobacco producers and related rural communities have developed. Discussion is expanded by examining current program approaches employed by various organizations. Many of these organizations have a mutual stake in helping producers in tobacco communities develop their management capacity. A range of initiatives aimed at facilitating economic adjustment is compared, including the major issues addressed and expected outcomes. Many of the initiatives have made useful contributions; however, gaps and limitations remain. These are considered as future educational efforts and issues are discussed.

This paper is a discussion of the Brown, Snell, and Tiller article. The economic accuracy, conciseness, and organization is noteworthy with the major strength being the analysis of the tobacco system with the absence of a Federal program. The base paper discusses economic consequences of the U.S. tobacco program, within-industry structural differences, and recent/potential future changes such as the buy-out, industry uncertainty, and the possibility of program elimination.

As with most agricultural industries, the U.S. dairy industry has evolved into a structure including fewer yet larger firms. In Louisiana, total milk production has declined along with dairy farm numbers since 1972. This study addresses the impact of alternative policies, macroeconomic factors, and technology on the structure of the Louisiana dairy industry using a micro-data non-stationary Markov chain analysis. Results indicate that a number of factors have affected the structure of the industry in Louisiana, including but not limited to prices, milk supply reduction programs, technology and interest rates.

Conventional wisdom and earlier research have concluded that cattle feeding profitability is more determined by feeder and fed cattle prices than by animal performance. This study examined cross-sectional and time-series data from over 1600 pens of cattle in more than 220 feedlots in the upper Midwest where weather and lot conditions are thought to influence feedlot profitability. In addition to input and output prices and animal performance, other factors found to significantly impact cattle feeding profitability were sex, placement weight, facility design, and to a lesser extent placement season.

This paper examines the price discovery function for three U.S. wheat futures markets: the Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas City Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange. The maintained hypothesis is that futures markets search more for information than cash markets to find an equilibrium price, thus greatly improving the price discovery function. The tests reveal the existence of one equilibrium price across the three futures markets in the long run, but no cointegration among prices in the three representative cash markets.